The Assembly met at 13:30 with the Presiding Officer (Elin Jones) in the Chair.

I call the National Assembly to order.

1. 1. Questions to the First Minister

[R] signifies the Member has declared an interest. [W] signifies that the question was tabled in Welsh.

The first item on our agenda this afternoon is questions to the First Minister. The first question is from Jenny Rathbone.

<p>The South Wales Metro</p>

Jenny Rathbone AC: 1. Will the First Minister provide an update on the funding needed for the South Wales Metro? OAQ(5)0222(FM)

Carwyn Jones AC: The metro phase 2 project has been estimated at £734 million and the final cost will be determined during procurement negotiations. Funding includes match funding from the European regional development fund that we expect the UK Government to guarantee.

Jenny Rathbone AC: Given that even Alun Cairns now seems to be an enthusiast for the south Wales metro, and has recognised the strategic importance of it for providing jobs and growth for the whole of the south-east Wales area, are you confident that the UK Government will give us the money that we need to ensure that we can deliver this project on time, and to the quality required?

Carwyn Jones AC: Given the Secretary of State for Wales’s enthusiasm for the metro, I would expect him to be able to demonstrate enough influence amongst his Westminster colleagues in order to deliver the £125 million worth of funding that we will lose as a result of the loss of European funding.

Neil McEvoy AC: Enthusiasm is one thing, but if the full funding of the south Wales metro isn’t guaranteed, nailed-on guaranteed, what’s plan B?

Carwyn Jones AC: Well, quite simply, the metro won’t be able to proceed at the same pace, and with the same ambition as would otherwise be the case. There will still be a metro, but obviously, if there’s £125 million less money involved, then the reach of the metro, and the speed of its expansion will be less. But given the fact that we have heard from those who wish to leave the European Union that every single penny of European funding would be guaranteed, we expect that promise to be honoured.

Russell George AC: First Minister, I wonder if you could outline what discussions you’ve had with the UK Government specifically, directly with them, in regards to the project going forward.

Carwyn Jones AC: With regard to?

Russell George AC: In regards to the project going forward.

Carwyn Jones AC: As we’ve said many times to them, we expect the money to be there. If the money is lost through the loss of European funding, at official level, there’s very, very regular contact in terms of how we move forward, especially given the fact that so many of the levers that are required to deliver the metro are not devolved. So, there’s a great deal of official-to-official contact that takes place on a regular basis.

David J Rowlands AC: A simple question, First Minister: when will the construction phase actually begin?

Carwyn Jones AC: Well, of course, at the moment, we are going through the bidding process, and the less said about that, the better, given the fact that it has to go through a proper process. Once that bidding process is actually finalised, then we expect to see phase 2 begin. Much of it depends, of course, on the franchising in terms of the Wales and borders franchise, but as soon as possible after the bidding process has been completed.

<p>The Legislative Programme for the Fifth Assembly</p>

Angela Burns AC: 2. Will the First Minister provide an update on the legislative programme for the fifth Assembly? OAQ(5)0215(FM)

Carwyn Jones AC: Yes. I announced the first annual legislative programme of this fifth Assembly on 28 June.

Angela Burns AC: Thank you for that, First Minister. I wonder when you might expect to see the main policy thrusts of any new legislation that is passed during the fifth Assembly being implemented. How long would you expect it to take from Royal Assent to a policy, through statute, being implemented and being delivered on the ground? The background to this, of course, is the autism debate last week, when much was made of the Social Services and Well-being (Wales) Act 2014, which was passed with Royal Assent in April 2014, and yet we’re still waiting for policy outcomes from that. So, it’s a matter of curiosity. Thank you.

Carwyn Jones AC: Much of it depends on the legislation itself. What I can say to the Member is that the Minister has agreed that officials will meet with the National Autistic Society to discuss the society’s draft Bill. That meeting has been arranged for 14 November. I am confident, however, that we have the legislative and policy levers to continue to improve the lives of people with autism and their families and carers, of course. A refreshed autistic spectrum disorder action plan will be published next month. That will be accompanied by a delivery plan with measurable outcomes. And we have recently consulted on the draft action plan, which addresses priorities for stakeholders. So, yes, that legislation is still moving forward, but nevertheless, as was said last week, we will monitor the situation, we’ll work with the National Autistic Society, and we’ll keep the door open for legislation should it be required.

David Rees AC: First Minister, on 28 June, the country had only just decided to leave the EU. As a consequence of that, there could well be possible legislative implications here in Wales. What analysis is the Welsh Government doing to actually look at the implications upon the legislative programme that you are putting forward, based upon the fact that we could see a lot more legislation coming from Brussels as a consequence of that exit?

Carwyn Jones AC: It’s very difficult at this stage, of course, to examine what the situation might actually be, given the fact we await the judgment of the Supreme Court, potentially, in terms of the use of the royal prerogative, and the effect that would have, potentially, on repealing statute law, which is not what the prerogative is designed to do. Until we see the outcome of that process, and the outcome of the process over the next two years, it’s difficult, at this stage, to know what effect there’ll be on individual items of legislation passed by the Assembly. Of course, what we expect will happen is that the opportunity will arise at some point to offer the Assembly the opportunity to decide whether it should be bound by EU law in the future, because, at the moment of course, we can’t pass any legislation that is in conflict or incompatible with European Union law. Clearly, that will change in the future.

Simon Thomas AC: In launching your legislative programme, First Minister, you mentioned two pieces of legislation that were a matter of discussion between our two parties, namely the autism Bill that’s already been mentioned, and another Bill relating to the reasonable chastisement of children. Can you confirm that, during this Assembly term, you as First Minister are still going to bring forward legislation in those two areas?

Carwyn Jones AC: In relation to the second item, that is something that we do want to proceed with on a cross-party basis, I have to say, and I have said that in the past. In terms of autism, may I tell him what the two parties agree back in June? I’ll say it in English because it was agreed in English:agree we work together, through the liaison committee, to consider how best to deliver separate legislation on autism. In due course, to place the autism spectrum disorder strategic action plan on a statutory footing. This work will need to take into account the impact of the new all-age autism service, refreshed autistic spectrum disorder strategic action plan, and the implementation of the Social Services and Well-being (Wales) Act 2014.Therefore, I can confirm what I said and confirm what’s been agreed between the two parties.

<p>Questions Without Notice from the Party Leaders</p>

I now call for questions from the party leaders and, first of all this week, the leader of the UKIP group, Neil Hamilton.

Neil Hamilton AC: Diolch, Lywydd. As the First Minister will know, Wales has the lowest number of GPs per 1,000 patients of any part of the UK—the number being 0.6 GPs per 1,000 in 2014. He’ll know also that training places are currently not being filled, that increasing numbers of GPs are retiring early, and there’s a growing crisis in recruitment and retention. Can he tell the Assembly what plans the Government has, with a concrete timeline, to train a greater proportion of UK doctors in Wales?

Carwyn Jones AC: Well, it’s not realistic to think that we will be able to train every doctor that practises in Wales. Five per cent of our medical staff are made up of doctors who trained elsewhere in the EU; a substantial number are made up of doctors who trained elsewhere. That is true of every health service, everywhere in the developed world. That said, we want to make sure that we train more doctors—that much is true. I do not accept what he says, that there is a crisis in GP recruitment; there are challenges, that’s correct, but those challenges are not restricted to Wales. He asked what we’re doing about it. On 20 October, we will, of course, be launching our GP recruitment campaign in order to make sure that we attract more students and, indeed, practitioners to Wales.

Neil Hamilton AC: Well, I thank the First Minister for his reply. As he will know, since 2004, the percentage of NHS funding in Wales that has been spent on GPs has gone down from over 10 per cent to just over 7.5 per cent. In the same time, consultation rates have increased by more than 20 per cent, so GPs are being more hard pressed in their daily work. Does he agree with me that the independent contractor model for GPs is the one that offers best value for money for the NHS overall? And does he realise that, for every half hour of patient contact that GPs do, they have another half hour in patient-centred work, and another half hour again on top of that in administration, and, if that were to be done as employed persons—employed by local health boards—we would likely get less bang for every buck that we spend?

Carwyn Jones AC: Well, there are two points there. First of all, there are more GPs now than there were a decade ago—that’s worth emphasising. And, also, we should be wary of referring people constantly or pushing people in the direction constantly of GPs. Through our Choose Well campaign, we are looking to advise people that, for many conditions, they should go to a pharmacist first, a practice nurse first, rather than going straight to a GP, by default, and increasing that GP’s workload. It’s a matter for GPs as to the way they organise themselves. It is true, however, that more and more newly qualified GPs are not attracted by the independent contractor model. They must have the choice as to whether to be salaried GPs or independent contractors. It’s a matter for the profession how it organises itself, but I don’t hold to the view that the independent contractor model is necessarily the only model that can be adhered to in the future. The model will vary according to the preferences of those who deliver the service.

Neil Hamilton AC: I agree with some of what the First Minister said, but I’d like to reiterate some of the points that have already been made by other questioners today in relation to the autism Bill. Does he understand the widespread anger and, indeed, incomprehension amongst the public at large that Labour AMs were whipped last week to vote against the motion for an autism Bill, which wasn’t actually a legislative proposal in itself but an expression of opinion of this Assembly on a matter that goes to the very heart of the suffering of tens and tens of thousands of people in Wales?

Carwyn Jones AC: In Haverfordwest on Thursday I was asked this question by members of the public and I understood their position. I understand the great pressure that autism places on families. I’ve dealt with autism through casework over many, many years and seen some very difficult cases indeed. What I asked them though was what a law would deliver for them, and they were unclear on that. Perhaps, it was an unfair question to ask members of the public. What’s important is that we work with the National Autistic Society in order to identify with them what aspects of the draft Bill actually can be delivered in other ways. Why wait years for a Bill if there are better ways to deliver a better service now. From our perspective, a law is what is required when every other means of delivering a service has shown itself not to be effective. So, the Minister will work with the society in order to make sure that we can deliver what we can with what we have already and also examine whether there is a need for legislation in the future.

The leader of Plaid Cymru, Leanne Wood.

Leanne Wood AC: Diolch, Lywydd. Four bidders have expressed an interest in running the Wales and the borders franchise and the associated metro system. One area needing further scrutiny is the franchise map or the actual routes that will be operated. We know that the UK Government’s Department for Transport wanted to remove certain routes from the franchise and in particular those routes that serve destinations in England. Your Cabinet Secretary has indicated that the UK Government wants the map broadly unchanged. Do the four bidders know which routes they are bidding for and can you tell us when passengers across Wales will be given sight of the next franchise map?

Carwyn Jones AC: There are several issues that arise as a result of the franchise. First of all, at this moment in time the Welsh Government, unlike the Scottish Government, is prevented from running a franchise and having that franchise run by a public body or public agency for reasons that are not fathomable in logic, but that’s what the current Wales Bill actually says. We’ve made strong representations to the UK Government saying that if it’s right for Scotland, therefore it’s also right for Wales. As far as the franchise is concerned in terms of the destinations, our view is that the franchise map should stay as it is. Otherwise, of course, there will be no service between Merthyr Tydfil and the Conwy valley railway that is run by the Welsh Government or through the Welsh franchise. Every service along the north Wales main line will be run from England, except the Conwy valley line wouldn’t be. The central Wales line—the Heart of Wales line—and the Cambrian coast line will all be run outside of the Welsh franchise. That is frankly a ludicrous situation and something that we are continuing to tell the UK Government in those exact terms.

Leanne Wood AC: The renewal of the franchise gives us an opportunity to address the issue of capacity, and there’s a significant issue with capacity on the Valleys lines. As you will be aware, every day commuters face issues of overcrowding and delays. Frequency is an issue as well. On the Treherbert line, for example—one that I’m particularly familiar with—there are only two passing points on that line and we need to go from a single line to a dual line. In the budget today, the Treherbert line is mentioned. Can you say more about that train line and, in particular, can you tell us when we can expect to see a plan for the re-dualling of the Treherbert train line please?

Carwyn Jones AC: First of all, it’s absolutely right that we want to see better frequency by the services, a better quality of rolling stock on all the Valleys lines—none of those criteria are satisfied at the moment—and proper signalling, of course, on the lines to make sure that more trains can run on those lines and possibly more passing loops. The question as to whether the entire line should be re-dualled and whether that would actually add anything beyond improvements short of that is an open question. The one thing I can say to the leader of Plaid Cymru is we are absolutely committed, via the metro system, to deliver better frequency and better trains for the people of the Rhondda Fawr on all the Valleys lines.

Leanne Wood AC: I welcome that statement, First Minister, because when the franchise was last awarded, there was no provision for a growth in passenger numbers, and there was no capacity within that franchise to increase the rolling stock. So, I wonder if you can explain to us how you will make sure that that point is addressed in the next franchise. People travelling on those Valleys lines are sick and tired of travelling on decades-old second-hand rolling stock. When you travel elsewhere, there are excellent trains. Do you think train travellers in Wales deserve the service that we currently have to put up with?

Carwyn Jones AC: No, it should be far better. We have seen some improvements around Queen Street and the points of access into Queen Street station, but I know full well that the quality of the trains is poor. They lack air conditioning, they’re not pleasant trains to travel on, the frequency is not good, the capacity is not good, and people often have to suffer overcrowding to the extent where some trains have to pass through some stations in order to avoid the overcrowding. These will be addressed as a result of the franchise negotiations. The franchise will transfer in the autumn of next year, but we’re absolutely determined to make sure that there’s better capacity, better trains and better frequency on all Valleys lines services. It’s an intrinsic part of the metro to make sure that people enjoy a far better service than they enjoy now.

The leader of the Welsh Conservatives, Andrew R.T. Davies.

Andrew RT Davies AC: Thank you, Presiding Officer. First Minister, there was a report out last week that highlighted the extra cost that your childcare policy could potentially end up costing the Welsh Government at the end of the five-year Assembly—a potential deficit of about £120 million over what you costed for your manifesto. Do you recognise the figures within that report, and if you do recognise the figures in that report, how are you making the allowances to be able to meet that increased demand? We all recognise childcare is an important part of the balance that many families face on a day-to-day basis.

Carwyn Jones AC: There were some assumptions in that report about how we would implement the childcare policy, but the figures that we came out with were based on providing childcare for those who were working 16 hours a week or more, and they were figures that were provided to us by an independent survey, and not by ourselves—by an independent body.

Andrew RT Davies AC: I do take it from your answer that you do accept that there’s potential for this massive overspend, especially if the scheme is, hopefully, a rip-roaring success, in fairness, First Minister, because as I said, all parties recognised going into the election that childcare was a huge issue. Your offer is the offer that will be implemented because you’re in Government, and there is this potential overspend of £110 million. That’s not small change in the money that you have available as a Government. What allowances are you making to make sure that resources are available so that the scheme can be implemented and its full capacity and potential reached at the end of this Assembly?

Carwyn Jones AC: We don’t accept that those figures are correct. We are confident in the figures that we have; we believe that they are robust. They were figures that were provided to us as a result of work that we commissioned, and those figures we believe are correct in terms of the money that will be needed to implement the policy.

Andrew RT Davies AC: Thank you for that answer, First Minister. So, you do take it, then, that those figures aren’t correct and that your figures of £90 million are the costings of that scheme. But, if you look at your wider commitments in the first five months of this Assembly, you have the backing for the black route, which is the most expensive M4 relief option, you have the pupil premium agreed with the education Secretary, and you have the potential for an overspend in your childcare policy. We know from the report last week that there is a deficit opening up in NHS funding to the potential tune of £700 million. In fairness to you when you were on the campaign trail, you said that for every commitment there will have to be a cut. Where will the cuts fall within your programme to deliver on those commitments that I’ve just outlined?

Carwyn Jones AC: That will become apparent during the course of the draft budget statement. On the M4 relief road, that, of course, will be financed through borrowing and not through our own capital budgets. We are more than content with the figures we provided back in May and that they will help us to deliver the manifesto promises that we made. Indeed, that’s exactly what we did in 2011—we kept the promises then and we’ll keep those promises in 2016.

<p>Investment in Tourism in North Wales</p>

Hannah Blythyn AC: 3. Will the First Minister make a statement on the importance of investment in tourism in north Wales? OAQ(5)0216(FM)

Carwyn Jones AC: Our tourism strategy sets out our priorities in supporting the tourism industry, including capital and development funding, along with marketing and promotional activities.

Hannah Blythyn AC: Thank you. On Friday I was at a well-attended meeting of the Flintshire Tourism Association discussing the value of the visitor economy to north-east Wales. I welcome the Welsh Labour manifesto commitment and the Cabinet Secretary’s plans to create a culture corridor across the A55, which includes new signage to mark out our amazing heritage and tourism assets in the region. First Minister, do you agree with the value of this, and can you give an update on the progress of the enhanced signage?

Carwyn Jones AC: Yes. I can say that Visit Wales is currently developing proposals for new tourism routes across Wales, including a project to do more to promote culture and heritage attractions along the A55, in order, of course, for people to spend more time in that area. There are many of us in this Chamber who will have heard from people who’ve said, ‘Yes, I’ve travelled along the A55 on the way to Ireland’, but they haven’t stopped. We need more of those people to stop and, of course, more people to make the north of Wales their destination in the first place.

Mark Isherwood AC: Tourism sector representatives in Flintshire and across north Wales have told me the Welsh Government needs to respond to the £40 million provided by Visit England for tourism marketing there, and to acknowledge how it proposes to address the fund there already being distributed. How, therefore, do you respond to their concern that Wales needs to be aware of the increased resources close to our border, such as Chester, Cheshire, Shropshire, Bristol and Bath, with the potential to encourage English staycation and avert English and overseas visitors from Wales?

Carwyn Jones AC: We’re aware of it, but of course, our tourism statistics show that more people are visiting Wales. Particularly, more people are visiting Wales from abroad. That’s been quite significant over the past year. We market Wales on the basis of themed years, and so, this year is the Year of Adventure. We know that the sector is worth £481 million to the Welsh economy, and of course, the north will play a very important part in the Year of Adventure plans. We’ve been working very closely with businesses in order for that to happen. So, whilst of course we keep an eye on our competitors, we know, from the figures that we have for tourism, that Wales has been successful in attracting more and more visitors.

Llyr Gruffydd AC: Of course, one of the priorities now is to extend the tourism season so that we can provide jobs to the people of north Wales throughout the year. Can you tell us what your Government is doing to try and achieve that and how you would use any additional resources that could be allocated to tourism to achieve that?

Carwyn Jones AC: You have to have activities that are available throughout the year. Surf Snowdonia is one example of what we’ve supported, and Zip Word and Bounce Below—we’ve supported them. Of course, it’s important to say that tourism shouldn’t be completely seasonal, because of course it then creates a situation where people aren’t in employment throughout the year. So, by supporting such all-year-round activities, it’s important that we can bring the people in throughout the winter, as well as the summer.

Michelle Brown AC: First Minister, could we have some more detail on how the Welsh Government proposes to market north Wales as a holiday destination, please?

Carwyn Jones AC: We have a tourism investment support scheme. It’s made offers of funding to 42 businesses in the north, totalling £7.8 million. It has created 361 jobs and safeguarded another 113. We have, as well, the tourism attractor destination programme, working on four business plans for the north. If you look at what we’ve spent over the years—you look at Colwyn Bay and the work that’s been done there, not just Parc Eirias, but also the seafront in Colwyn Bay; the substantial investment that’s been put into Rhyl over the years—over £30 million in improving the Rhyl seafront; we have the regional tourism engagement fund and that’s been worth £280,000 to the north; and the tourism product innovation fund as well. And, of course, we have invested over £1.7 million in major events. They include events such as the Slateman and Sandman triathlons, the Llangollen Fringe Festival, Festival No. 6, the Tour of Britain and Wales Rally GB, just to name a few.

<p>Primary Care Services </p>

Dai Lloyd AC: 4. Will the First Minister make a statement on the demand on primary care services? OAQ(5)0213(FM)

Carwyn Jones AC: We have seen an increase in demand on primary care services. I will be launching a national and international marketing campaign to encourage more general practitioners to work in Wales. Over £42 million has been given to health boards to support the delivery of our plans.

Dai Lloyd AC: Thank you very much for that response, First Minister. Many of us attended a BMA meeting here last week where they launched ‘Urgent prescription: A survey of general practice in 2016’. That painted a picture of the huge pressures on GPs, bearing in mind that a GP would see some 50 patients per day on average, and that includes very complex problems, because the simple problems have already been separated out these days, and it’s only the more serious issues that the GP addresses. Of course, it’s only those situations where a GP is required, and that’s why the pressures are so huge. That’s why the pressure is so huge—there are 50 complex patients who can only be seen by a GP. So, what can you do to reduce these huge pressures on GPs now?

Carwyn Jones AC: Well, the BMA of course is part of the work that we’re undertaking. They’re not outwith that. Of course, they represent their Members, I understand that, but we have been working with them to ensure that there is a reduction in the pressures on GPs. One example is the collaborative in mid Wales, which is working hard to ensure that services are available for people in mid Wales, and is considering new ways of working. Ultimately, of course, we wish to see more GPs being trained in Wales and working in Wales, and that is why the campaign will be launched in two days’ time.

Vikki Howells AC: It is important that we provide primary care facilities that are fit for purpose and that meet demand. Cwm Taf university health board and RCT council are collaborating to develop a new health centre in Mountain Ash that will do exactly this. How is the Welsh Government working with partners to improve primary care facilities across Wales?

Carwyn Jones AC: I know the health board has established a project board to develop a proposal for the new primary care facility in Mountain Ash, and we look to work with all the health boards to deliver those kinds of facilities. I’ve seen them being opened all across Wales—modern facilities where practices can keep their identities within those buildings, but, nevertheless, have access to support services and modern facilities. We will keep on working with GPs and with health boards to deliver more up-to-date, modern health centres in the future.

Suzy Davies AC: Keeping people out of hospital is placing demand on primary care services that are already stretched. People in need of social care are more likely to call on primary and, probably, reablement care than the general population. Social care isn’t all about the GP, though, and I’m wondering how the Welsh Government is securing the support of non-medical intervention to support the confidence and emotional well-being of people in social care, and how you then measure the drop in demand on primary care services, especially primary mental health care services.

Carwyn Jones AC: We know how important it is to have support services for people when they’re outside hospital. That means ensuring that we don’t cut spending in social services, as has happened, of course, over the border. In Wales, spending on health and social services is 7 per cent higher per head than it is in England, because you cannot divorce the two. You cannot raid social services budgets in order to pay for health; the two of them run together. That’s why we’ve protected budgets in Wales and will continue to do so.

Caroline Jones AC: First Minister, Wales has a growing and ageing population that is putting increased pressures on primary care services in Wales. As those of us who signed the urgent prescription for general practice can attest, workload pressures upon GPs are undermining the safety of patient care. Will the Welsh Government support the BMA request for local health boards to stop the practice of requiring GPs to deliver tests organised in other parts of the NHS and for the introduction of a national standard for a minimum number of patients a GP can be expected to deal with during a working day?

Carwyn Jones AC: I have to say to the Member it is normally the case, where GPs deliver tests on behalf of other parts of the health service, that they are paid to do it. They don’t do it for nothing, and, as a result of that, it’s not the case, therefore, that they find that their time is not compensated in that regard. I have to say, for example, on top of what I’ve just said, that this year, we’ve seen the recruitment of over 400 additional staff across Wales, including clinical pharmacists, physios and care co-ordinators, and they help and support GPs as part of a GP-led multiprofessional approach. When we look at Prestatyn, for example, we see a great example there of a service that’s much improved for people, taken over by the health board, where a number of practitioners are available for people and they can be diverted to the right practitioner when they arrive at the premises. That is a good model that we need to investigate for the rest of Wales.

<p>Means-tested Grants </p>

Mark Reckless AC: 5. What will be the cost of giving means tested grants to newly eligible students from households earning between £50,020 and £81,000? OAQ(5)0219(FM)

Carwyn Jones AC: The Member is jumping the gun a little, because, of course, the Government has not yet provided a full response to the Diamond review. That response is being considered and will be announced in due course.

Mark Reckless AC: If the Government’s mind is still open on this matter, will the First Minister note that university participation at this income level is already high? Mark Drakeford will be setting out later the financial pressures the Welsh Government faces and, just in response to my party colleagues earlier, you said that you weren’t able even to estimate a start date for construction on the metro, and you heard that we had the lowest GP numbers of any of the nations and regions in the UK. In light of that, will the First Minister consider whether providing means-tested grants to this group really is that priority?

Carwyn Jones AC: I’m not sure that GPs and the metro are connected, but in regard to the metro, that’s because, of course, the franchise will not be transferred until the autumn of next year. So, it’s difficult to give a start date to phase 2. Phase 1 of the metro has started, of course, already. That started last year. It’s to do with phase 2 and the way that the franchise, the agreement on the franchise, and the map that will be important in terms of determining when the next phase of the metro will begin. The Cabinet Secretary for Education has indicated the broad principles that we’ll be following in response to the Diamond review, and we’ll seek to get the most equitable solution for all Welsh students.

Llyr Gruffydd AC: Of course, as we move away from the current model that has been described as an unsustainable model to a model that, one assumes, will be based on Diamond, can you confirm whether it is your Government’s intention to try to achieve any financial savings?

Carwyn Jones AC: Well, of course, we want to ensure that there is an equitable system in place that uses the funding available, of course, and that follows the principles that we’ve already set down, namely that we retain the principle that everybody should be part of the system, ensure that there is a fair and consistent approach to dealing with students, whether they are part time or full time, ensure, of course, that there is an investment by the individual and also by the Government, and ensure that they can have greater access to higher education. Those are the principles that the Secretary has cited to date, and those are the ones that we will follow.

Darren Millar AC: First Minister, you had an opportunity there, in response to Llyr Gruffydd, to re-commit yourself to the commitment that both you and the Liberal Democrats reached when forming your coalition Government, which was that there would be no negative effect on the higher education budget as a result of the implementation of any changes. Will you take the opportunity to make that commitment today, and do you acknowledge that Professor Diamond himself has suggested that there will be a £48.25 million-worth of savings each year if these recommendations are implemented today? That’s a significant saving. What are you going to do with that extra money?

Carwyn Jones AC: We will look to invest in the institutions, in the universities, of course. It’s not without strings. We want to make sure that our universities deliver, of course. So, I don’t want to give the impression that this is money that universities would get without an expectation that they continue to deliver better, but we want to make sure that investment continues to rise in our higher education institutions while, at the same time, delivering a fair deal for students.

<p>The Superfast Cymru Programme</p>

Rhun ap Iorwerth AC: 6. Will the First Minister make a statement on the steps taken when it is decided that a community cannot be connected under the Superfast Cymru programme? OAQ(5)0221(FM)[W]

Carwyn Jones AC: When communities ask about the accessibility to Superfast Cymru, and it’s obvious that BT won’t be providing that service, it’s possible for them to follow other options through the Access Broadband Cymru scheme. Superfast Cymru, for example, is built on the basis of assisting communities where there is no commercial means of assisting them. But there will be alternative means of helping communities outside those two categories.

Rhun ap Iorwerth AC: Thank you for that response. We should celebrate, of course, the thousands of connections that have been made under the Superfast Cymru programme, but underneath those positives, of course, there are communities the length and breadth of Wales that cannot access broadband. I can tell you about the Brynsiencyn area where the famous Halen Môn company still can’t access superfast broadband. I can tell you about Llanddona, where 14 families are desperate to have superfast broadband and want to pay for it but can’t access it. The problem is that they aren’t given an explanation as to why they can’t get that access. Would the First Minister agree with me that a cost-benefit analysis should be published by Openreach so that people, first of all, can see why their area is too expensive to connect, and, secondly, as a tool to find an alternative way of providing that connection?

Carwyn Jones AC: It is important that BT should tell communities why it’s not possible to link them up to superfast broadband. Of course, it is not the aim of Superfast Cymru is to look at whether something can be done commercially, but to ensure that the service is available. So, I think Openreach is duty-bound to say why it’s too much of a problem. Having said that, of course, as I said earlier, it is possible for people to look at schemes such as the Access Broadband Cymru scheme in order to receive funding to assist them to receive broadband ultimately. But it is important that BT gives the reasons why there have been problems up to now.

Paul Davies AC: First Minister, access to adequate broadband has been a huge issue for us in Pembrokeshire too. I do welcome the steps announced by the Minister last week to assist those communities that can’t be connected under the Superfast Cymru programme, and I understand that there will be some engagement activities happening now. I wonder, in these circumstances, can you tell us how the Welsh Government will promote these developments, especially for those living in more rural and isolated communities, to ensure that everyone is aware of this?

Carwyn Jones AC: Well, another review will be undertaken during the autumn in order to see what kind of options are available to us publicly to assist some of the communities that don’t fit into Superfast Cymru. But they can still, of course, look at the Access Broadband Cymru scheme in order to ensure that access to broadband is available to them if they don’t fit into Superfast Cymru.

Nathan Gill AC: First Minister, we’ve pretty much moved on since the Superfast Cymru initiative was started. In fact, there are three other types of broadband or fibre-optic, and now I believe it’s called hyper-optic broadband, which is 128 times faster than the superfast that we are fitting throughout Wales. What we’ve got is the equivalent of a four-lane highway merging into a winding country lane. Of course, we’ve got broadband all the way up to the boxes, and then we’re using 128-year-old technology to connect the houses to it. So, my question to you is: first of all, what are you going to do to ensure that new-build premises actually have the fibre-to-the-premises connections? Also, what are we able to do to allow houses that have broadband to the box at the end of the street to actually have the fibre all the way to their homes as well, if that’s what they require?

Carwyn Jones AC: Well, it’s interesting, in the sense of whether we can require developers, either through the building regs or probably more likely through section 106 agreements, to put in place state-of-the-art connections to the boxes? He’s right: there is a mixture of technologies in place in terms of the British phone system, because it lacked investment for so many years. What we’re trying to do with Superfast Cymru is to get most people to a position where they can download video, download music and listen, and download documents in a reasonable amount of time. But it’s true to say that it won’t be the fastest in the world, given the fact that we know that there are faster systems elsewhere. They will require substantial investment, but he raises an interesting suggestion, though I wonder whether developers would have a different view as to whether we should require developers, then, to put in place the most up-to-date technology possible when they get planning permission.

<p>The Provision of Arts Centres</p>

Bethan Sayed AC: 7. Will the First Minister make a statement on the provision of arts centres throughout Wales? OAQ(5)0208(FM)

Carwyn Jones AC: Yes. Wales benefits from a comprehensive network of arts centres and venues that cover the length and breadth of the country.

Bethan Sayed AC: Obviously, you will appreciate that, across Wales, one of the first ways that people can access the arts is in relation to small-scale arts centres. Therefore, I was really concerned that Neath Port Talbot County Borough Council has decided to close Pontardawe Arts Centre one day a week—the day of the week that community groups actually do use the centre. I was there recently to watch ‘The Revlon Girl’, which is a show I’m sure many of us have seen about the Aberfan disaster. I would be very concerned if the centre did close one day a week because, of course, they have vital services to be providing. Once it’s closing one day, it may be a slippery slope to closing more days of the week. So, would you join with me in trying to seek assurances from Neath Port Talbot council that they will not take this decision, and that they will keep the centre open for business?

Carwyn Jones AC: Ultimately, of course, it is a matter for the council, but I hope that the draft budget will provide councils across Wales with a level of comfort, so that they feel that they do not have to take decisions along the lines that the Member has just described.

Jeremy Miles AC: Thank you, First Minister, for your answer to Bethan Jenkins. May I acknowledge the value that Bethan has put on the role that Pontardawe Arts Centre plays in the community? I, myself, was with Bethan watching ‘The Revlon Girl’ there a few days ago. Would he also acknowledge—[Laughter.] Not exactly ‘with’. [Laughter.] Would he also acknowledge the broader role that arts centres play, not just as places of entertainment, important though that is, but as community hubs, helping to tackle isolation, offering a broader offering for schoolchildren in terms of education and general well-being? Would he join me in hoping that local authorities across Wales will look at all those considerations when they’re considering funding and support for the future?

Carwyn Jones AC: Yes, absolutely. The Member makes a very good point about the educational purposes of arts centres. We shouldn't forget either that arts centres provide employment. Many years ago, I was at a very powerful lecture given by Dr Mererid Hopwood on culture as an economic driver, in Northern Ireland of all places. It emphasised very strongly how the arts can actually be used as a way of developing local economies as well. So, there are a number of areas where arts centres are important that go beyond what is immediately obvious to members of the public.

Janet Finch-Saunders AC: First Minister, one way of protecting our community arts centres, of course, is a similar model to that in England of the Localism Act 2011 in order to save community facilities. Seventy-eight per cent of respondents to your ‘Protecting Community Assets’ were in favour of such rights. Over the past 18 months, you've funded a community transfer support officer at a cost of £56,000 to the taxpayer. Could you advise the Chamber today of the meaningful outcomes of that post, how many community assets have been transferred as a result of that, and how you intend, as the First Minister of Wales, to drive that kind of agenda forward that helps us to protect our community assets?

Carwyn Jones AC: There are plenty of examples where communities have taken over facilities in Wales. Not long ago, I was in Briton Ferry library, in fact, in David Rees's constituency, where the library had been taken over. But it's important to distinguish between helping local people to take over their facilities and forcing them to do so via the Localism Act. We prefer to take a voluntary approach, and we see good examples of that happening across Wales.

<p>The Pupil Deprivation Grant (Islwyn)</p>

Rhianon Passmore AC: 8. Will the First Minister make a statement on the difference the pupil deprivation grant is making to educational outcomes in Islwyn? OAQ(5)0214(FM)

Carwyn Jones AC: We see that the impact of the grant is strong. It’s making a real difference to the lives of disadvantaged learners, and we are starting to break the very stubborn link between poverty and educational achievement.

Rhianon Passmore AC: Thank you, First Minister. Statistics recently released show a further increase in the proportion of learners eligible for free school meals achieving five good GCSEs, including mathematics and English or Welsh first language. This represents the best performance yet by our disadvantaged learners and, for the second year, the attainment gap between children and young people receiving free school meals and their peers has closed. First Minister, this is further evidence of how successfully the Welsh Government is tackling poverty in Wales. Can you then tell me how the Welsh Government continues to build on this success?

Carwyn Jones AC: Well, I know that the Cabinet Secretary has a very strong personal commitment to the pupil deprivation grant. She's already announced a doubling of support from £300 to £600 for the early years pupil development grant to eligible three and four-year-olds in the foundation phase, and it's a clear demonstration of our long-term commitment to breaking the intergenerational cycle of poverty.

<p>The Economic Development Strategy</p>

John Griffiths AC: 9. Will the First Minister make a statement on the evidence base and research that is underlying the Welsh Government's economic development strategy? OAQ(5)0211(FM)

Carwyn Jones AC: We use evidence from a wide range of sources to shape our approach to delivering a fairer, more prosperous and more secure Wales.

John Griffiths AC: First Minister, Professors Brian Morgan and Gerry Holtham recently carried out research on what works in economic development across the globe. They found a very strong correlation between high levels of spend on schools and economic success. As well as the economic advantages, of course, education is a good in itself and benefits all aspects of life. Will Welsh Government work to increase funding to our schools in Wales?

Carwyn Jones AC: Well, we've done exactly that, of course, through the protections we’ve put in place for schools. We are seeing new schools being built across Wales—something that didn't happen when I was at school in the 1980s. Nothing was ever built in the 1980s; things fell apart. We see more and more of our school students in buildings that are appropriate for them. The Member is absolutely right: skills and infrastructure are the two areas that are most important to any modern economy. You must have the ability to move goods out and to get people around your economy, but the one question I'm always asked by investors is: have you got the skills we need in order for us to be successful in Wales? And, of course, increasingly, the answer to that is ‘yes’, and we will continue to invest not just in schools, but in skills across the board for those of all ages, through, for example, our 100,000 places that we'll create for all ages in apprenticeship schemes.

<p>The National Botanic Garden of Wales</p>

Adam Price AC: 10. Will the First Minister make a statement on the Welsh Government's support for the National Botanic Garden? OAQ(5)0218(FM)

Carwyn Jones AC: The Cabinet Secretary for Economy and Infrastructure is currently considering the findings of his task and finish group on this matter. He will meet the chair and chief executive officer of the garden towards the end of this week to discuss those findings.

Adam Price AC: The garden has submitted a bid to the Heritage Lottery fund to create a regency garden on the site. It appears that that bid has been successful and has attracted the possibility of private contributions on top of that, but this, according to the fund, is conditional on confirmation from the Welsh Government of Government support for the garden. As we are talking about an investment of millions of pounds possibly in Carmarthenshire, can we expect that that confirmation will be provided by Government?

Carwyn Jones AC: The garden will receive £581,000 in revenue funding this year and £90,000 in capital funding. Having said that, it is important that the garden continues to consider methods of raising funds in a commercial way. This has been a problem since its inception because the garden hasn’t been able to raise sufficient income on the actions that they take there and the activities that are available. But, we wish to collaborate with the garden to ensure that there is a sustainable future for the garden, and to consider every possible means of funding the garden for the future.

I thank the First Minister.

2. Urgent Question: The Wales and Borders Franchise

[R] signifies the Member has declared an interest. [W] signifies that the question was tabled in Welsh.

The next item is the urgent question. I have accepted an urgent question under Standing Order 12.66 and I call on Russell George to ask that urgent question.

Russell George AC: Will the Minister make a statement on the role of Transport for Wales in the procurement process to operate rail services in Wales, in light of the announcement that four bidders are competing for the next Wales and Borders franchise? EAQ(5)0055(EI)

Ken Skates AC: Yes, the procurement process to select an operational and delivery partner is being undertaken by Transport for Wales, a wholly owned, not-for-profit company established by the Welsh Government to provide support and expertise to deliver the next Wales and borders rail franchise and the next phase of the metro project.

Russell George AC: Cabinet Secretary, it is disappointing, I think, that a statement was made to the media last week, even a briefing made available to the media, before a statement was brought here before Members. This is one of the biggest procurement exercises that Wales has ever seen and I should say that there is a great deal of cross-party consensus on the need to address Wales’s transport infrastructure, and a will, I think, to work together and take this forward. That’s why I think it’s particularly disappointing that the Assembly has been bypassed in this regard.Cabinet Secretary, can you expand on what your officials told the media last week on the structure and governance arrangements for Transport for Wales, the procurement process, and Welsh Government’s vision for a not-for-profit model? Can I also ask how the Welsh Government intended to manage the risks highlighted in the auditor general’s and the gateway review in terms of franchised procurement and the franchise map? I noted your answer to Leanne Wood earlier as well. Can you outline how Transport for Wales is taking forward the franchise development when the franchise map has not yet been agreed? Can you also confirm whether or not Transport for Wales is public facing? Can AMs meet with the managing director? Will they be subject to scrutiny from Members, and also from the Economy and Infrastructure Committee? Finally, earlier this month you told the Chamber that you wanted to see Transport for Wales’s head office in the Valleys. But it appears that you have reversed this commitment and I’d be grateful for clarification on that point.

Ken Skates AC: I’d like to thank the Member for giving me an opportunity to confirm that the headquarters of Transport for Wales will be located in the Valleys. When I made my statement, which was comprehensive, back in July I said it was my intention to ensure that that happens, and I can tell Members today that it is still my intention, once we have identified suitable premises, for the headquarters of Transport for Wales to be located in the Valleys.Presiding Officer, I set out details back in July for taking forward the Wales and borders franchise and the next phase of the metro, and last week’s announcement was part of the procurement process. In terms of what my officials told the media or anybody else, there is nothing new in what was presented other than the four bidders that have been named. Transport for Wales, as the Member is aware, is a not-for-profit, wholly owned subsidiary company of the Welsh Government and will act in a professional advisory capacity to support our procurement and delivery of the next Wales and borders franchise. It employs 22 members of staff—experts who I’m confident will be able to address the concerns of the report that the Member identified. In terms of the map, which was raised earlier in First Minister’s questions by the Member Leanne Wood, we have reached an agreement with the Department for Transport on the map, including the provision for services that will extend to Bristol and to Liverpool.In terms of the operation of cross-border services, the Member will be aware that we’ve already established and agreed one agency agreement with the Secretary of State and we are in the process of finalising an agreement with the Secretary of State on a second agency agreement that will concern cross-border travel. However, I recognise that there are real and legitimate concerns across the border amongst many passengers who start and finish their journeys within England. For that reason, I am determined to make sure that we have the right processes in place for their complaints or, indeed, for any of their concerns to be expressed and to be dealt with appropriately. For that reason, I anticipate ensuring that the cross-border forum that currently exists continues well into the future.

Dai Lloyd AC: Naturally, following on from that, there is concern on this side of the border about the quality of rail services, by the people of Wales. As has already been mentioned, we have seen these four companies bidding for the Wales and borders franchise and, naturally, to be fair, you have answered written questions from me on this very issue, of how exactly the railways will be operating under the franchise and whether the railways will stay fundamentally the same. What you’ve said, and to quote you:‘routes operated under the next Wales and Borders franchise to be broadly unchanged.’I’ve listened to the responses that have been given already today, but what does ‘broadly unchanged’ mean in this context? Will the most profitable railways remain as part of this franchise? Because if they don’t, we may find ourselves in the bizarre situation where, from this Assembly, we’ll be able to give a right to run the Wales and borders franchise to a private company from anywhere in the world and we’ll be funding their shareholders too, in countries abroad, while having virtually no power over investments in our own railways here in Wales. So, can I ask, in the future—and I do understand that the work on this franchise is ongoing—are there any plans in the next franchise to claim more investment in the rail network here in Wales? Thank you.

Ken Skates AC: I’d like to thank the Member for his questions. We were very disappointed that the UK Government has not agreed to invest more in the network within Wales and those parts of the network in England that are operated as part of the current franchise. Historically, the network has been underfunded and I think the latest statistics suggest that only 1 per cent of the network spending has come to the Welsh routes. So, without a shadow of a doubt, there is a need to significantly increase the amount of investment in Welsh routes. Indeed, we would like to see those funds devolved so that we could ensure that a correct and appropriate amount of investment is available.Presiding Officer, I think I should say that, in order to ensure fair and open competition and, indeed, to protect the integrity of the process, it’s not going to be possible for me to release any specific details, or the Welsh Government will face the risk of legal challenge insofar as the procurement exercise is concerned. However, I would like to, in response to the Member’s questions, just outline again what I stated in July with some details about the actual dates. We’ve gone through the process of the consultation with the public. I think I said back in July that we had received something in the region of 190 responses from a very wide range of stakeholders. That consultation informed the initial stage of discussions with would-be bidders. Last week, four bidders were identified and named as having an interest in taking forward the next franchise. By November of this year, bidders will have responded to our call for outlying solutions. Leanne Wood mentioned earlier a specific issue in her consistency regarding rail travel. What will happen next is that, as bidders develop their technical solutions, their focus will be on how to achieve our critical objective of delivering four services per hour to each of the Valleys. So, what’s going to be taking place up to November is that a series of outline solutions will be presented to Welsh Government. Following that, we will open up a consultation that will last approximately 12 weeks. That will be managed and operated by Transport for Wales. Again, it will enable the public and will enable stakeholders to give views on the future franchise. Dialogue will then commence with the bidders in the new year—we anticipate in January 2017—with the final tender process taking place between July and September of next year and then, as Members are already aware, the contract will be awarded by the end of 2017, with operations beginning in 2018.The Member for UKIP earlier asked about dates and time frames for the operation of the metro. As the First Minister has already identified, phase 1 is actually being delivered, with £13 million of investment in the network. We expect the mobilisation of phase 2 to commence from 2017 onwards, with early works commencing on the metro phase 2 in 2018, so that by 2023 metro services in areas of the city region will be completed and operational.

David J Rowlands AC: Cabinet Secretary, UKIP welcomes the fact that there are four bidders competing for the rail franchise. Does the Cabinet Secretary not agree that competition is healthy and should result in the best possible deal for Wales?

Ken Skates AC: Competition can be helpful; the problem with the current franchise is that, when the contract was awarded, it was based on—as Members have already identified this afternoon—zero growth. That, in turn, led to all increases in passenger travel and passenger tickets, all of the revenue that was gathered from them, to be generated as profit for the operator. If we look at the current franchise and the numbers of passengers that have taken journeys on the rail network, 18 million passengers took journeys on the network in 2003; by 2013, that number had increased to 29 million. We cannot possibly afford to be in the same situation again, where we do not build into the contract contingencies for increases in capacity. That’s why I think it’s fair to say, during the process of the consultation that took place earlier this year, a huge proportion of the concerns that were raised with us related to capacity and the quality of rolling stock. In terms of questions that have been raised in this Chamber previously—again, by Leanne Wood, actually—in terms of the quality of rolling stock, each of the four bidders has significant buying power in terms of new rolling stock, and so we would expect that primary concern that passengers have expressed through the consultation, of quality of rolling stock, to be fully addressed in the next franchise.

I thank the Cabinet Secretary.

3. 2. Business Statement and Announcement

The next item is the business statement and announcement, and I call on Jane Hutt.

Jane Hutt AC: Diolch yn fawr, Lywydd. Just to say I’ve no changes to make to today’s agenda. Business Committee has reduced the time allocated to tomorrow’s questions to the Assembly Commission, and has also agreed that the debate on the Constitutional and Legislative Affairs Committee’s report on the Wales Bill will take place as the final item of business before voting tomorrow, with the agenda adjusted accordingly. Business for the next three weeks is as shown on the business statement, which can be found among the meeting papers available to Members electronically.

Andrew RT Davies AC: Could we have a statement from the planning Minister, leader of the house, in relation to local authorities’ use of section 106s, and in particular their use when considering self-build or small residential developments? Section 106s can be a very useful tool in commercial developments, attracting moneys in for education and for other community facilities, but surely they cannot be a tool that can be used to leverage money out of self-build or small developments of three or four houses. That could have a detrimental impact on small-scale builders, which, especially in rural areas, can have an enormous economic impact if those builders are allowed to progress, but section 106 used in the wrong way can actually prohibit those developments from going forward. There has been a recent court case that found in favour of the arrangements that apply to other parts of the United Kingdom, which do exempt small-scale developments from the use of 106s.

Jane Hutt AC: Well, the Member does raise an important point in relation to section 106, which is indeed a very important provision in planning law, and the Cabinet Secretary will issue a written statement accordingly to clarify that point.

Mike Hedges AC: Last week, the Minister covering social services said:‘The Social Services and Well-being (Wales) Act 2014 will transform the way that we meet the needs of all people with care and support needs, including people with autism and their carers.’Can I therefore ask for a Government statement on the social services Act and how it is working?

Jane Hutt AC: Well, clearly, implementation of the social services and well-being Act, which came into force on 6 April, is now up for scrutiny and consideration in terms of outcomes, and I think the Cabinet Secretary for Health, Well-being and Sport clearly laid out a three-year framework for the evaluation of the Act, and we’ll be reporting on that as appropriate. But I think also it’s important for you to know, as a Member, that the first meeting of the stakeholder group indicated that the process—. Chaired by the Minister for Social Services and Public Health, Rebecca Evans, it has already met to discuss the progress in implementation of the Act, and they will be monitoring it very closely. But, also, all regions have regional boards in place that take ownership of the change agenda and pushing forward the delivery of the Act.

Darren Millar AC: Leader of the house, can I call for two statements today, please? One is from the Cabinet Secretary for Education on the EU regional social progress index—a study found that Wales ranked at the bottom of the UK home nations in terms of access to basic knowledge, and, of course, that’s given rise to significant concerns amongst parents in particular, and knocked their confidence in our education system once again. I wondered whether the Cabinet Secretary for Education might like to respond to that particular study and give some confidence back to people in Wales regarding our education system.And, secondly, as the species champion for the red squirrel, I was very concerned to hear of the death of a number of red squirrels on Anglesey today, possibly as a result of a virus. I wonder whether we can have a statement from the Cabinet Secretary for Environment and Rural Affairs on what the Welsh Government is doing to support red squirrel populations elsewhere in Wales and to monitor their potential vulnerability to such viruses, particularly in places like the Clocaenog Forest in my own constituency? Thank you.

Jane Hutt AC: In response to your first question, Darren Millar, I’m sure you are aware that the information regarding the EU regional social progress index study was published in February of this year, and, just recently, the same information has been republished as a league table by a think tank. Since the original data were gathered, the Welsh Government has published provisional verified GCSE results. In addition, the Cabinet Secretary will be making a statement to the Assembly on the official Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development Programme for International Student Assessment figures as soon as they’re published later this year. On your second point, yes, of course, the red squirrel is very fortunate to have you as its species champion, I would say. But I would also say that, having brought this to our attention today, I’m sure that the Cabinet Secretary will look into this and report accordingly.

David Rees AC: Minister, can I ask for two statements from the Welsh Government? Can I have the first statement from the Cabinet Secretary for Environment and Rural Affairs? Prior to the Assembly elections in 2016, we had a commitment from the Welsh Government on a moratorium on fracking. It would be interesting to see that commitment reaffirmed by the Cabinet Secretary to ensure that fracking here in Wales remains off the table for any investor, so we know clearly where we stand. The second one is in light of the work that’s been done by community groups in the Afan Valley, particularly the Afan Valley Community Leisure activity, which was led by Brian Gibbons, my predecessor. As a consequence of his work, we will see the Cymmer swimming pool opened this Saturday because of the hard work of a committee of local residents. Can I have a statement by the Cabinet Secretary for Communities and Children to actually talk about the support such community groups can have when establishing and taking over community facilities and offering public services, such as leisure and swimming pools?

Jane Hutt AC: Thank you, David Rees, for those questions. I’m glad you’ve given us the opportunity, again, as a Welsh Government, to make it very clear that the Welsh Government remains opposed to fracking. The planning notification directions we’ve issued prevent local planning authorities from granting permission for unconventional gas development for underground coal gasification, and this does, of course, follow through in terms of current national planning policy, identifying the environmental impacts that must be addressed in terms of any proposed development that does not impact on environment, communities or wider society. But, I think, also, the policy clarification that the former Minister, and now current Minister, of course, in terms of Cabinet Secretary responsibility—. That was issued in July 2014, and it draws attention and reiterates these considerations.On your second point, we’ve already touched on this this afternoon in response to questions to the First Minister. And, clearly, this is a very good example, isn’t it, of the community being able to work together? It’s good to hear that Dr Brian Gibbons has been involved in that—a former Member of this Assembly—and that that swimming pool in Cymmer is now going to be able to be used by the local community. There are ways in which local government and Welsh Government can advise, and, of course, it is about ensuring that the most appropriate responses, not just in terms of grant aid, but accountability to local government, to other public bodies, are ensured.

Angela Burns AC: Leader of the house, may I ask for a statement from the Cabinet Secretary for health and social services into how the Welsh Government can support Wales’s biggest medical school in light of its recent 20-place fall in ‘The Complete University Guide’, and the impact that this could have on Welsh Government’s manifesto commitment to deliver more doctors training in Wales? And I would also like to ask if the Cabinet Secretary could also issue a complementary statement on the cuts at Cardiff Medical School in a number of significant areas of research, such as cardiology, neurology, and complex spinal care, and what effect he foresees this action having on our ability to grow our own specialists within Wales. This is obviously particularly key when you take into account the effect on public health of conditions such as heart disease in this country.

Jane Hutt AC: Well, of course, the money and the support that we give to the Cardiff Medical School, part of Cardiff University, is clearly delivering outcomes, and is well supported by the Welsh Government. I know that there’s been a recent visit to the medical school, which I believe was very interesting, in terms of the discussions with those who are responsible for the medical school. But, of course, medical education is at the forefront of not only our commitments, priorities, but also ambitions, in terms of ensuring that we have an appropriate healthcare workforce in Wales.

Julie Morgan AC: On the weekend, I was very pleased to meet the founder of Recovery Mummy, which is an organisation set up to campaign for and support women who suffer from postnatal depression and other perinatal mental health problems. It was a very emotional, very difficult discussion. I think it’s difficult enough being a new parent and looking after a baby for the first time, as well as having to deal with mental health problems. So I wondered if it would be possible to have a statement from the Cabinet Secretary for Health, Well-being and Sport to lay out what we are able to do to help women in this position.

Jane Hutt AC: Well, Julie Morgan brings to our attention a very important new development. You describe a Cardiff mum actually getting involved and taking this forward, offering support for women with postnatal depression, perinatal psychosis, and other mental health issues. In fact, I know this was addressed in the Cabinet Secretary’s statement last week on ‘Together for Mental Health’—a recognition about mental health needs in terms of perinatal issues and that all-important point for the mother and baby. So, I think the new perinatal mental health services that were set up last year across Wales are developing well, with new specialist staff being recruited, backed by £1.5 million of new investment. But this example, I think, shows how much we must listen to those who need and use those services; how much we should listen to them and support them in that way.

Mark Isherwood AC: Can I call for two statements, please? Firstly, on community safety in Wales, following the Auditor General for Wales’s report of that name, launched today. This says, rightly:‘Community safety relates to people’s sense of personal security and their feelings of safety in relation to where they live, work and spend their leisure time.’But it goes on to say:‘The Welsh Government has no single strategy for community safety and has focussed its activity on delivering the Programme for Government. Whilst all local authorities and the four Police and Crime Commissioners have plans, these are not consistently aligned to ensure the best use of resources and maximise impact and there are no areas where national, regional and local bodies have the same priority. Disjointed planning and poor co-ordination can create a risk of organisations either duplicating activity or no one focussing on the most important issues.’And they recommend that you, with the police and crime commissioners and local authorities, ‘improve strategic partnership working by formally creating effective community-safety boards’to replace the current mechanism. This is clearly important. It’s received, rightly, widespread attention today and it does merit a Welsh Government response to this Assembly before we hear a more detailed response outside it. Secondly, on a theme we’ve heard much about today, I call for a Welsh Government statement on its proposals, as we look ahead, for autism legislation. I’ve had, since the vote last week, some distressing reports to me of people who have self-harmed. There is a letter to the Senedd from the Autistic Women’s Empowerment Project, which says: ‘This week the Welsh Assembly, a beautiful, swoopy glass building, voted against an Autism Act for Wales. 24 to 27. So close. So few minds to change to change my world, but change they did not. Why oh why would we need such a thing? An act just for autism? An act of autism? An enactment of autisming? Because of me. Because of people like me. Because of my autistic community, my people and their families and carers. Because it matters.’She concludes:‘Wales, I love you. I adore you. Your people, your greenness, your mountains, your valleys. Only you know my hiraeth when I’m not here. Nowhere undulates like you. Nowhere is warmer and kinder. But you’ve let me down. You’re letting me down every day. And we need you.’Well, we heard earlier from the First Minister that the agreement with Plaid Cymru included a statutory underpinning for the other legislative and procedural changes the Welsh Government is implementing. The Minister said that the people he spoke to in the autism community said they didn’t know what legislation would do, but that’s not what the overwhelming number of people in north, south and mid Wales have been telling us for years, and as recently as last Friday night in Wrexham, as recently as last Sunday in Towyn and Kinmel Bay. We know what it’s about. We know the Welsh Government said it’s going to monitor the implementation of its refreshed strategy and national plan and legislation but people on the autism spectrum need certainty. So, when will you be carrying out the initial reviews? How will you be reporting that, and how will you ensure that that legislation and that statutory underpinning will be brought forward at the earliest opportunity?

Jane Hutt AC: On your first point, of course, community safety in Wales is of paramount importance and the Cabinet Secretary will respond and he will update as appropriate on the current arrangements in terms of Safer Communities, which, of course, have served us well in terms of local partnerships. You did hear extensively from the First Minister this afternoon about our approach and our commitment and indeed the ways in which we—. In fact, you heard also from the Minister for health and social services about the way in which she is working with the National Autistic Society, working with actually a date in the diary again to look at their proposals and to look at where we are delivering in terms of a range of services to support people, families, children and young people and adults with autism. I think, again, it might be helpful if I just, again, read an extract from the First Minister’s Plenary statement on the legislative programme on 28 June. In fact, that was in response to a question that was put to the First Minister by Simon Thomas, and he said: ‘To start with autism, this is something, of course, that is being considered at present by the liaison committee’—we heard about that this afternoon—‘in terms of seeing in what way we can develop legislation on autism, and particularly whether we can ensure that the action plan can be strengthened through being placed on a statutory basis ultimately. That is being dealt with in that process.’So, I think we have, this afternoon, responded to those points and I’m sure, across this Chamber, are meeting, as we do, with our constituents and with those local groups who are raising these issues.

I thank the Minister.

4. 3. Statement: The Draft Budget 2017-18

The next item is a statement by the Cabinet Secretary for Finance and Local Government on the draft budget for 2017-18. I call on the Cabinet Secretary, Mark Drakeford.

Mark Drakeford AC: Thank you very much, Llywydd, for the opportunity to make a statement on the Welsh Government’s draft budget for 2017-18. I have laid the budget before the National Assembly this afternoon for consultation and scrutiny. We live in a most uncertain period. After very careful consideration over the summer, I have decided that, in advance of the fiscal resetting promised by the Chancellor in the forthcoming November statement, it is only possible to place a one-year revenue budget before the National Assembly. A similar conclusion has been reached by finance Ministers in the Scottish Government and the Northern Ireland Executive. Against this difficult background, my aim has been to lay a budget which provides stability for our core public services over the next 18 months. But it is also a budget with ambition, a budget which makes progress on our programme for government and our promises to the people of Wales.The budget before you today, Llywydd, is also the product of an agreement between the Government and Plaid Cymru. I wish to thank Adam Price and his team for the careful, constructive and detailed discussions which form the foundation of our agreement. It provides for a package of additional spending commitments, in addition to non-fiscal measures. These can be seen in the budget documentation available to Members. We have also agreed a forward work programme for the finance liaison committee for the next 12 months, and I look forward to embarking on these discussions.Lywydd, gadewch i mi ddweud ychydig mwy am y cyd-destun y crëwyd y gyllideb hon oddi mewn iddo.Ers 2010-11, rydym wedi dioddef toriadau olynol i gyllideb Cymru.Erbyn diwedd y degawd, bydd ein cyllideb gyffredinol wedi gostwng 9 y cant mewn termau real—sy’n cyfateb i bron i £1.5 biliwn yn llai ar gyfer gwasanaethau cyhoeddus hanfodol yma yng Nghymru.Ac, wrth gwrs, rwyf unwaith eto yn ailddatgan heddiw yr achos macro-economaidd brys am roi'r gorau i'r polisïau cyni hunanorchfygol.O ganlyniad i’r polisïau hynny mae bygythiadau o doriadau pellach i ddod yn parhau, gan nad yw Llywodraeth y DU wedi cyhoeddi hyd yn hyn sut y bydd yn dod o hyd i'r £3.5 biliwn o ostyngiadau adrannol a gyhoeddwyd yn y gyllideb ym mis Mawrth.Gallai hyn ar ei ben ei hun olygu toriad arall o £150 miliwn ar gyfer gwasanaethau yng Nghymru.Daeth y Sefydliad Astudiaethau Cyllid i’r casgliad yn ddiweddar bod Cymru yn wynebu 11 neu fwy o flynyddoedd o gwtogi eithriadol mewn gwariant gwasanaeth cyhoeddus.Nawr, er gwaethaf hyn, ac effeithiau uniongyrchol refferendwm yr UE ar Gymru, bydd y gyllideb sydd gerbron yr Aelodau heddiw yn: buddsoddi £240 miliwn ychwanegol yn y GIG yng Nghymru i fodloni’r twf parhaus mewn galw ac mewn costau gwasanaethau; bydd hyn yn sicrhau £111 miliwn ar gyfer prentisiaethau a Hyfforddeiaethau yn rhan o'n hymrwymiad i fuddsoddi mewn sgiliau a swyddi yng Nghymru, gan gynnwys £88.3 miliwn i greu 100,000 o brentisiaethau i bob oed; bydd yn cyflwyno toriad mewn treth o £100 miliwn i fusnesau bach; yn darparu’r setliad cyllido llywodraeth leol gorau ers blynyddoedd; yn cadarnhau ein buddsoddiad yn y gronfa gofal canolraddol; yn codi safonau ysgolion drwy fuddsoddiad o £20 miliwn y flwyddyn nesaf; yn diogelu ac yn cynyddu cyllid ar gyfer y grant amddifadedd disgyblion; yn galluogi bwrw ymlaen â'r gwaith o ddatblygu cynnig gofal plant mwyaf hael y DU ar gyfer rhieni sy'n gweithio.Ac, yn ychwanegol at y £240 miliwn a nodwyd eisoes, byddwn hefyd yn darparu £16 miliwn y flwyddyn nesaf er mwyn i’r GIG allu sefydlu cronfa driniaeth newydd, a fydd yn sicrhau bod triniaethau newydd ac arloesol ar gael ar gyfer clefydau sy'n bygwth bywydau ac yn newid bywydau i’r holl bobl sydd eu hangen yng Nghymru.Byddwn hefyd yn dyrannu £4.5 miliwn i godi'r terfyn cyfalaf fel y gall pobl gadw mwy o'u cynilion bywyd wrth fynd i ofal preswyl, fel yr addawyd ym maniffesto fy mhlaid.Mae ein cytundeb â Phlaid Cymru yn golygu y bydd buddsoddiadau ychwanegol pellach ar gyfer gwasanaethau iechyd—£1 miliwn ar gyfer gwasanaethau gofal diwedd oes, gwerth £1 miliwn ar gyfer anhwylderau bwyta a gwasanaethau trawsryweddol, a £7 miliwn yn ychwanegol at yr hyn sydd eisoes yn y gyllideb er mwyn buddsoddi rhagor mewn hyfforddi gweithwyr gofal iechyd proffesiynol ychwanegol.Lywydd, er mai cyllideb refeniw am un flwyddyn yn unig yr oedd yn ddoeth ei gosod, rwyf wedi penderfynu ei bod yn bosibl nodi cynllun cyfalaf dros bedair blynedd.Bydd neilltuo’r rhan fwyaf o'r cyfalaf sydd ar gael yn rhoi hyder a sicrwydd i'r sector adeiladu, busnesau a buddsoddwyr, ac yn cefnogi pobl i wneud y penderfyniadau gorau.Byddwn yn darparu dros £1.3 biliwn dros y pedair blynedd nesaf i ddarparu 20,000 o gartrefi fforddiadwy ychwanegol yma yng Nghymru yn unol â'r ymrwymiad yn ein maniffesto.Byddwn yn buddsoddi mwy na £500 miliwn o gyfalaf confensiynol yn ein rhaglen ysgolion yr unfed ganrif ar hugain gwerth £2 biliwn, ac yn defnyddio modelau cyllid arloesol newydd i fwrw ymlaen â'r gwaith o ddatblygu’r Ganolfan Ganser Felindre arbenigol newydd, yn ogystal â deuoli'r A465.Mae'r cyllid cyfalaf wedi cael ei neilltuo mewn cronfeydd wrth gefn i ddarparu ffordd liniaru newydd yr M4 erbyn 2021, yn amodol ar ganlyniad yr ymchwiliad cyhoeddus y flwyddyn nesaf.Mae bron i £370 miliwn yn y gyllideb gyfalaf dros y pedair blynedd nesaf i gyflawni ein cynlluniau uchelgeisiol ar gyfer metro de Cymru, ac rydym yn buddsoddi i ddatblygu cynigion metro ar gyfer y gogledd hefyd.Bydd pymtheg miliwn o bunnoedd yn y rhaglen gyfalaf iechyd ar gyfer 2017-18 yn cael ei fuddsoddi i wella diagnosteg, fel yr adlewyrchir yn ein cytundeb cyllideb â Phlaid Cymru.Lywydd, mae’r datganiad hwn wedi canolbwyntio ar gynlluniau’r gyllideb ar gyfer y dyfodol, ond rydym hefyd yn gwybod bod pwysau gwirioneddol ar rai o'n gwasanaethau craidd yn y flwyddyn ariannol gyfredol.Rwy'n disgwyl gallu nodi rhai o'r pwysau yn ystod y flwyddyn hynny.Fodd bynnag, bydd angen cydbwyso ein hymateb i'r materion hynny â'r hyn y bydd datganiad yr hydref y Canghellor yn ei olygu i Gymru.Byddaf, wrth gwrs, yn rhoi'r wybodaeth ddiweddaraf i'r Aelodau am y cynlluniau hyn wrth iddynt ddatblygu.Felly, Lywydd, cyllideb ar gyfer sefydlogrwydd ac uchelgais yw hon.Mae'n buddsoddi ar gyfer heddiw ac yn paratoi ar gyfer yfory.Bydd yn ein helpu i symud ein GIG ymlaen, i godi safonau ysgolion, i weithredu'r pecyn diwygio addysg mwyaf y mae Cymru wedi’i weld ers y 1940au, a bydd yn sicrhau y gall ein partneriaid llywodraeth leol barhau i ddarparu eu gwasanaethau hanfodol.Mae hon hefyd, Lywydd, yn gyllideb ar gyfer uchelgais, buddsoddi yng Nghymru, mewn seilwaith hanfodol newydd, mewn tai, mewn trafnidiaeth, mewn swyddi ac yn ein ffyniant yn y dyfodol.Mae'n gyllideb sy'n symud Cymru yn ei blaen.

Paul Davies AC: Can I thank the Cabinet Secretary for his statement today and for his phone call earlier, giving me advance notice of the headline figures in today’s draft budget? I understand his logic in laying a one-year revenue budget and a four-year capital budget, but I’m sure it won’t surprise the Cabinet Secretary that we on this side of the Chamber cannot support this draft budget in its current form. Once again, Plaid Cymru have fallen over themselves to do a deal with the Welsh Government and prop them up regardless. Whilst there are some announcements that are to be welcomed in this statement, communities across Wales have still been left behind.Of course, it is my earnest wish that this draft budget will deliver for Welsh communities where so many others before it have failed, but you will forgive me if I reserve some scepticism, given that outcomes in so many areas of public life are still badly wanting. As we enter into the next phase of the fifth Assembly, our nation remains in the chokehold of an underperforming economy, which sees families in Wales take home the lowest wages in Britain—this according to the Welsh Government’s own statistical analysis. Last week, an EU regional social progress index study placed Wales’s education system at the bottom of the UK league table—not the first study to do so. Public health, too, remains a major concern. The Welsh health survey highlighted that obesity levels are rising and diabetes prevalence has more than doubled since 1996. These issues stubbornly endure.Going forward, it’s crucial that every pound spent by the Welsh Government is spent effectively, ensuring value for money for the Welsh taxpayer and a renewed focus on outcomes. No-one denies that we have been through tough economic times and the UK Government has had to take tough economic decisions to get the economy back on track. Of course, at the same time, the referendum vote to leave the EU raises a whole series of questions over future budget planning. Therefore, can the Cabinet Secretary tell us what impact the EU referendum result has had on the Welsh Government’s budget planning processes for the fifth Assembly and what work the Welsh Government has done since the referendum result in terms of its budget processes and economic forecasting ahead of Britain’s withdrawal from the European Union?Now, turning to some of the headline figures from today’s announcement, of course, I welcome the additional money that has been allocated to the health budget, and I sincerely hope that this will go some way to addressing the real issues that our NHS faces. The Cabinet Secretary will remember from his time as health Minister the struggle of delivering health services in rural parts of Wales, and so perhaps the Cabinet Secretary will tell us how today’s budget will roll back the centralisation of services that we’ve seen in recent years and fill in the gaps in provision that there are in parts of west, mid and, indeed, north Wales. Indeed, can the Cabinet Secretary confirm for the record this afternoon that, in light of the numerous reports criticising Welsh NHS finances, he is now fully confident that this draft budget is affordable and that it will sufficiently support the NHS in Wales?As we know, there are higher costs to delivering public services in rural areas, and so it’s important that these areas are adequately prioritised in any Welsh Government budget. I understand local government will receive a cash-flat settlement in this draft budget, however, can the Minister indicate to us today how this money will be allocated to local authorities and whether rural authorities will be prioritised, given that they have suffered some substantial cuts in the past? An acknowledgement of the challenges that rural authorities face must be made in this budget, and I hope the Cabinet Secretary will provide more detail on how this budget will specifically address the challenges that rural local authorities face.Today’s statement includes an extra £30 million for higher and further education, which is certainly welcome. I’m sure all Members in this Chamber want to see a strong Welsh education system that is sustainable for the future. Now, I appreciate that £30 million cannot possibly be the answer to all of Wales’s problems when it comes to higher education and further education, but this funding could actually make a difference. Therefore, can the Cabinet Secretary confirm what new proposals will be implemented with this additional funding and how this funding will be used to close the funding gap between Welsh and English higher education? In relation to further education colleges, can the Cabinet Secretary confirm how this additional funding will be allocated to colleges and what criteria the colleges will have to meet to receive any additional funding?Llywydd, the Welsh Government must ensure that any spending through this Assembly is effective and delivers real improvements to key front-line services to the people of Wales. I was extremely disappointed, like many in this Chamber, in the Welsh Government’s programme for government, which does not provide the confidence or detail required to improve the life chances of people in communities across Wales. Therefore, can the Cabinet Secretary tell us how the Government will truly test the outcomes of any budget in this Assembly if there are no targets by which to measure them? Crucially, how can the Welsh Government ensure value for money across portfolio areas when there is very little detail in the programme for government to measure the progress of its budget? So, in closing, therefore, Llywydd, can I once again thank the Cabinet Secretary for today’s statement? My colleagues and I look forward to scrutinising the draft budget further over the next few weeks. Diolch.

Mark Drakeford AC: Thank you to Paul Davies for his contribution. I take it for granted, really, that we share an ambition across the Assembly to make sure that the money we have available for public services is spent effectively, that it brings about real improvements in people’s lives and that we spend the money we have in the way that has the greatest impact. I look forward to the detailed scrutiny of the budget against those criteria that will follow today’s statement.There were a series of specific questions in what Paul Davies had to ask, so I’ll try and address those, Llywydd. As far as the impact of the referendum is concerned, the Welsh Government will take a twin track to trying to respond to that. There are the immediate impacts in relation to the funding that comes from Europe to Wales, and our repeated calls on the UK Government to make sure that every penny that comes from the European Union should come to Wales have borne some fruit in the two statements made by the Chancellor of the Exchequer, providing some guarantees on that funding for Wales. I’m glad to see those and hope to see more of that in the future. The longer-term challenge for the UK Government, and then from Wales, will be on the long-term impact on the UK economy of leaving the European Union. It is quite impossible for us to make a reliable assessment of that in Wales when we have such an absence of clarity at the UK Government end on the terms on which they seek to bring about that exit. We will continue to urge them to conclude an agreement with the European Union that takes full cognisance of the interests of Wales, including full and unfettered access to the free market.Mr Davies asked me questions about the health budget. The extra investment that we are making in the health budget in this draft budget will be sufficient to meet the Nuffield gap. It will continue our policies of shifting care from secondary to primary care, it will allow the health service to go on doing the remarkable work that has happened in Wales in recent times in increasing the share of chronic illness services that are provided outside the hospital setting—one of the reasons why the Nuffield report and its successors conclude that the health service in Wales goes on being affordable into the future, provided—and this is the really key point, Llywydd, which Members on the Conservative side will want to hear—that public services have, in future, a fair share of the growth in the economy. Local government has, in this proposed budget, for the first time in many years, no cuts at all in the cash available to it. I’m afraid that the Member will have to wait until tomorrow, when I will lay the local government proposed settlement, to see how that affects individual authorities.I was grateful for what he said about the importance of further and higher education. The £30 million that we have been able to find additionally for HE and FE will be deployed by the Cabinet Secretary for Education, and she will do so in a way that is consistent with our ambitions for the implementation of the Diamond review.

Adam Price AC: First of all, I would like to thank the finance Secretary for his statement today and for the phone call that I received from him earlier too, but most of all, for the process of discussion that we went through over a period of months over the summer. Of course, the agreement between Plaid Cymru and the Government is testament to those mature discussions that we could use as a foundation for the statement that he has just given. Of course, there was compromise—it is an integral part of any discussion between two parties—but may I pay tribute to him for his constructive, creative, wise and considered approach to these negotiations? It is an agreement that we are very proud of in Plaid Cymru—the biggest ever deal between the Welsh Government and any opposition party: £119 million for Plaid Cymru manifesto pledges, the priorities that reflect the ambition of Plaid Cymru in terms of scope and substance, but even more importantly, ones that will lead to real improvements in the lives of people in all parts of Wales; £30 million for higher and further education, and I was pleased to see Paul Davies welcome that; £50 million for the tourism sector that we heard mention of; and an additional £5 million for the Welsh language and so on. The list is too long for me to go through it in full, but certainly it does represent an excellent deal for the people of Wales.Mae'r cytundeb yn cyflawni llawer o'n hymrwymiadau allweddol fel plaid, a nodwyd yn y maniffesto yr oedd pob Aelod a etholwyd fel aelodau Plaid Cymru yn yr etholiad Cynulliad hwn yn ei gefnogi.Dyma’r mandad a roddwyd i ni gan gannoedd o filoedd o'n cyd-ddinasyddion.Efallai fy mod yn aralleirio rhywun sydd wedi bod yn fentor gwleidyddol i mi trwy ddweud ei bod yn bwysig bod Plaid Cymru yn gwneud defnydd llawn o'i sefyllfa bob amser i sicrhau gwelliannau gweladwy i fywydau pobl yng Nghymru. Dyna beth yw gwleidyddiaeth ddemocrataidd, yn y pen draw; nid ceisio denu clod a chwyno am fanion o’r ymylon, ond cyflawni gwelliannau gwirioneddol i bobl Cymru.Yn aml, mewn gwleidyddiaeth— [Torri ar draws.]Yn aml mewn gwleidyddiaeth, gallwn wneud mwy pan fyddwn yn gweithio ar draws ffiniau pleidiau, pan fyddwn yn edrych am y tir cyffredin hwnnw ac yn croesawu’r cyfle hwnnw i gyflawni, gyda'n gilydd, y math o newidiadau y mae pobl Cymru eu hunain yn dymuno eu gweld.Wrth gwrs, bydd agweddau ar y gyllideb ehangach y byddwn yn anghytuno â nhw.Byddwn yn dymuno trafod a diwygio’r drafft, ac mae proses y gyllideb, wrth inni fynd drwy'r broses graffu ar lefel pwyllgor ac ar lawr y Cynulliad, yn rhoi cyfle i bob un ohonom wella’r gyllideb ddrafft.Bydd ein plaid ni, ynghyd â rhanddeiliaid eraill yn y gymdeithas ehangach yng Nghymru, yn dymuno bod yn rhan o'r ymgysylltu ehangach hwnnw hefyd.Mae gennyf ychydig o gwestiynau i Ysgrifennydd y Cabinet, yn fyr.Mae eisoes wedi cyfeirio at ddatganiad yr hydref.Mae llefarydd cyllid y Blaid Geidwadol wedi cyfeirio at y 'tagu' yr ydym yn ei wynebu.Wel, os ydym yn sôn am arian cyhoeddus, mae'r tagu go iawn yn cael ei weithredu gan y Llywodraeth Geidwadol yn San Steffan, sydd wedi ein gadael, mewn gwirionedd, â chyni a Brexit caled; gallai fod yn gyni ysgafn, ond nid wyf yn argyhoeddedig o hynny.Dyna'r tagu.Dyna’r cyd-destun anodd yr ydym yn ei wynebu.Ond, a wnaiff Ysgrifennydd y Cabinet ddweud ychydig mwy am effeithiau gwahaniaethol posibl datganiad yr hydref o ran y cyllidebau refeniw neu gyfalaf, ac efallai rhoi rhywfaint mwy o fanylion i ni am sut y bydd y newidiadau, a allai fod angen eu rhoi ar waith o ganlyniad i ddatganiad yr hydref, yn effeithio ar ein proses o adolygu yma?Rwy'n siŵr y bydd Ysgrifennydd y Cabinet yn cytuno mai un o nodweddion cadarnhaol ac unigryw y cytundeb hwn ar gyfer y gyllideb, gan ei fod mewn gwirionedd wedi’i ymwreiddio yn rhan o broses ehangach gyda’r pwyllgor cyswllt ar gyllid a'r compact ehangach, yw ei fod hefyd yn cynnwys blaenraglen waith y tu hwnt i gytundeb y gyllideb.Un o'r meysydd yr ydym yn awyddus i’w archwilio gyda’n gilydd yw’r maes pwysig hwn o wella effeithiolrwydd, y cyfeiriwyd ato, ac arbedion effeithlonrwydd yn y sector cyhoeddus, yn gyffredinol, sy'n gwbl hanfodol, wrth gwrs, os ydym am allu ymdrin â rhai o'r heriau ariannol a'r pwysau eraill ar wasanaethau cyhoeddus y byddwn yn eu hwynebu.Yn olaf, byddwn yn cael datganiad ar y comisiwn seilwaith cenedlaethol, felly nid wyf am ymyrryd yn ormodol yn y pwnc hwnnw.Rydym wedi gweld gostyngiad sylweddol mewn gwariant cyfalaf o'i gymharu â dechrau'r degawd hwn.Cyfeiriodd yr Ysgrifennydd Cyllid at rai o'r ffynonellau arloesol o gyllid y mae’n eu harchwilio er mwyn llenwi'r bwlch hwn, fel y gallwn barhau mewn gwirionedd i gynyddu a chyflymu’r cynnydd yn y buddsoddiad mewn seilwaith.A wnaiff ef ddweud ychydig mwy am y gwaith sy’n cael ei wneud i symud hynny ymlaen?

Mark Drakeford AC: May I say thank you to Adam Price for his comments in introducing his questions?Af yn syth at y cwestiynau penodol a gododd Adam Price.Mae e'n hollol iawn i dynnu sylw at y ffaith ein bod yn gorfod cyflwyno ein cyllideb gerbron y Cynulliad cyn datganiad yr hydref, pan mae’r Canghellor yn addo ailosodiad ariannol, a phan fo’n rhaid i ni wneud ein penderfyniadau heb wybod yn union sut y bydd yr ailosodiad hwnnw yn cael ei weithredu.O ganlyniad, rwyf wedi gorfod gwneud cyfres o benderfyniadau gyda chydweithwyr yn y Cabinet.Cyn belled ag y mae’r gyllideb gyfalaf yn y cwestiwn, rwyf wedi gwneud penderfyniad, yn seiliedig ar yr hyn yr ydym yn gallu ei ddarllen o'r gwahanol ddatganiadau y mae'r Canghellor wedi eu gwneud—yn fwyaf diweddar, efallai, yn Washington—bod ganddo fwriad o beidio â lleihau buddsoddiad cyfalaf yn economi y DU ac y gallem hyd yn oed weld rhywfaint o fuddsoddiad cymhedrol—a byddai croeso i hynny—gan fanteisio ar gyfraddau llog hanesyddol isel ac yn y blaen i roi rhywfaint o hwb i wariant ar seilwaith.Am y rheswm hwnnw, rwy’n teimlo'n ffyddiog wrth gyflwyno cyllideb gyfalaf pedair blynedd.Yr ansicrwydd ynghylch refeniw yw’r rheswm yr wyf wedi bod yn gaeth i gyllideb refeniw un flwyddyn.Pan fydd aelodau yn cael cyfle i astudio'r gyllideb yn fwy manwl, byddant yn gweld, yn y gyllideb ddrafft, fy mod yn cynnig mynd â chronfa refeniw wrth gefn uwch nag arfer i mewn i’r flwyddyn nesaf.Mae hynny yno rhag ofn i ddatganiad yr hydref leihau lefel y refeniw sydd ar gael i Lywodraeth Cymru y flwyddyn nesaf.Ac os yw pobl o’r farn bod hwn yn bosibilrwydd annhebygol, bydd Aelodau yma sy'n cofio y cafwyd, dim ond y llynedd, gwerth £50 miliwn o doriadau refeniw yn ystod y flwyddyn, y bu’n rhaid i Lywodraeth Cymru eu hymgorffori.Yr hyn yr wyf yn awyddus i’w osgoi yw gorfod ailagor y trafodaethau manwl iawn yr wyf wedi eu cael gyda chydweithwyr yn y Cabinet dros yr haf, ac, yn wir, gyda Phlaid Cymru, er mwyn gallu cyflwyno’r gyllideb hon heddiw.Os oes rhagor o doriadau i ddod i gyllideb refeniw Llywodraeth Cymru y flwyddyn nesaf, byddai'n well gennyf allu ymdrin â'r rheini drwy'r gronfa wrth gefn na thrwy ofyn i gydweithwyr ymgorffori rhagor o ostyngiadau.Os na fyddwn yn wynebu gostyngiad o'r fath y flwyddyn nesaf, yna byddaf yn ystyried gwneud rhai addasiadau pellach i'r gronfa wrth gefn honno cyn y gyllideb derfynol.Tynnodd Adam Price sylw at y flaenraglen waith sydd wedi'i chytuno ar gyfer y pwyllgor cyswllt ar gyllid.Roeddwn i o’r farn ei bod yn rhan bwysig o'n cytundeb i allu nodi y flaenraglen waith honno.Mae rhai materion pwysig iawn a hirdymor yr ydym wedi cytuno i fynd i'r afael â nhw ar y cyd, ac edrychaf ymlaen at y cyfle i allu symud y tu hwnt i'r gwaith anochel o ymdrin â’r manylion yr ydym wedi gorfod ei wneud dros yr wythnosau diwethaf er mwyn mynd i'r afael â rhai o'r materion hynny.Yn olaf, gofynwyd cwestiwn i mi am gyfalaf, ac mae Adam Price yn gwbl gywir i dynnu sylw at y ffaith y bydd y cyfalaf sydd ar gael i wasanaethau cyhoeddus yng Nghymru wedi gostwng gan draean rhwng 2009 a 2019, ac rydym wedi gorfod gweithio'n galed i ddod o hyd i ddulliau o bontio'r bwlch hwnnw.Mae'r gyllideb sydd gerbron yr Aelodau heddiw yn defnyddio cymaint â phosib ar y gallu benthyca newydd yr ydym wedi’i gytuno gyda Llywodraeth y DU.Mae'n adeiladu ar y gwaith a wnaed gan fy rhagflaenydd, Jane Hutt, o ran manteisio ar allu benthyca cymdeithasau tai ac awdurdodau lleol pan fyddwn yn darparu canlyniadau refeniw y benthyca hwnnw.Edrychaf ymlaen, hefyd, at ddatblygu rhagor o offerynnau ariannol er mwyn bwrw ymlaen, fel y dywedais yn fy natganiad, â’r ganolfan canser newydd yn Felindre a deuoli ffordd Blaenau'r Cymoedd yn llwyr.

The Deputy Presiding Officer (Ann Jones) took the Chair.

Mark Reckless AC: I thank the Cabinet Secretary for his statement and advance notice thereof, although I think I must have missed his phone call. [Laughter.] I have, though, got the copy of the budget during the First Minister's statement—[Interruption.] Oh well, never mind, never mind. I've been doing my best to at least scan-read the budget since my question at First Minister's questions, while, of course, listening at the same time, and there certainly are aspects of this budget that we would welcome, particularly the increase in health spending. I think it's about 4 per cent for health, well-being and sport as a whole, and 5.4 per cent for what the Government calls ‘core NHS services’. Could the Cabinet Secretary give a bit more clarity about this extra £240 million and then the extra £44 million I think he referred to on account of Plaid, and in particular the £20 million ring fence of mental health—welcome, albeit only one twelfth of the increase—and the £15 million in capital for diagnostics? Are both or either of those included within the £44 million?I'd like to give a particular welcome to the extra £7 million for medical training. The £1 million end-of-life care addition is obviously welcome, but, I'm afraid, is a drop in the ocean in that area—

Lee Waters AC: Why don't you give us the money from Brussels? Then we'd have enough money to pay for it.

Mark Reckless AC: We're looking forward to the extra money from Brussels, which will stand the Welsh Government and the UK Government in good stead in due course, once we leave.The Plaid statement earlier we had from Adam Price—I think he said just now that ‘we will deliver together’, and I think he was quoted in the media earlier as saying that waiting times in the NHS will be reduced on account of this intervention by Plaid. Can the Cabinet Secretary advise us of the extent to which we call Plaid to account for their role in delivering this reduction in waiting times, or is that something he continues to take sole responsibility for himself and with the formal Welsh Government?Outside the health area, where I think there are some welcome increases, we note local government is getting a 3.1 per cent increase, of which I think almost all is capital—£123 million—and I think that is welcome. However, I received at the beginning of this year a very welcome letter from Caerphilly County Borough Council telling me, actually, that they weren’t going to increase my council tax after all, because the grant settlement had been more generous than they anticipated. This year, we hear there’s another £25 million thanks to Plaid, and we are also told that, for the first year in four, there is to be an increase in the non-hypothecated grant. Can all this be afforded? I’m sure it’s very, very welcome for Labour and Plaid councillors standing for re-election next May, but given what the Cabinet Secretary says about the overall pressures, is not the risk that there will be very significant cuts following those elections, and given the relative generosity of spending settlements since austerity commenced in 2010 for Wales in the local government area, certainly compared to England? Although I’m not suggesting that we replicate the cuts there in any sense. Certainly, the social services additional funding and the integration with the NHS are welcome. But can the Minister continue to protect local government to the extent that he says in this budget?The £30 million extra for higher education and further education—we support some of those further education additions. The higher education, we’re told, is for the transition to the new student support arrangements., which we were told were going to be cost neutral, or, the Conservative spokesman says, a saving of £48 million. Can the Minister confirm how cost neutral or otherwise these changes will be, and whether he, given his long history of progressive left-wing politics, considers that these handouts of means-tested grants to families earning between £50,000 and £81,000 is a priority for him, including also the £1,000 for families earning even higher than that? Is it possible we could seek some savings in this area given the other changes and the pressures that the Cabinet Secretary sets out in his budget? On transport, we welcome the study into the Carmarthen-Aberystwyth route, and possibly reopening that, although for £300,000 we’re not totally sure, given the challenges, how much that’s going to lead to. But we welcome it as far as it goes. It was in our manifesto as well as in Plaid’s. We note that the Cabinet Secretary has set aside in reserves more than £900 million for an M4 relief road. Is that enough given the estimates of cost we now get for that black route? Professor Stuart Cole told me the week before last that he now thought it would be at least £1.2 billion, compared to just £0.5 billion for his blue route or £0.6 billion with the second leg up to the A449.Finally from me, I’d just like to refer to the Severn bridges and the tolling arrangements. The St David’s Day agreement said they would be a matter for agreement between the UK and the Welsh Governments. There doesn’t seem to be much agreement, though, with this continuing tax that the UK Government is going to put on the tolls after they should be abolished in approximately a year’s time. Will that continue after the purported debt is paid off, or will the Cabinet Secretary look forward with me to something in the budget next year to make a contribution towards maintenance so that tolls on those bridges can be scrapped?

Mark Drakeford AC: I thank Mark Reckless for those parts of the budget that he recognised as being welcome. I’ll try and address his specific questions. In relation to the mental health funding that is part of the £240 million, the £15 million for diagnostics is part of the capital programme provided to the health main expenditure group, and, of course, as a result of that investment, waiting times for diagnostics will continue to reduce still further.The £7 million for training is over and above the £240 million, and the £1 million for end-of-life care is certainly not to be regarded as a drop in the ocean. In terms of the hospice sector in Wales, that is a very significant investment and will be, I know, very widely welcomed by a service that is the best in the whole of the United Kingdom. As far as local government is concerned, I’m very glad to have been able to provide a no-cash-cut budget to local government this year, but let me say what I’ve said to local government already: tougher times and harder choices lie ahead. The budget that we are promised from the UK Government goes on cutting the resources available to this place, year after year after year. There is nowhere that anyone can simply melt those pressures away. They are inevitably bound to have an impact on our delivery partners. I was keen to provide an 18-month period of stability for those key services, and they need to use that time to prepare for the choices that lie ahead.As far as education is concerned, I’m very happy to provide a copy of my leaflet on progressive universalism—[Laughter.]—which I’m sure the Member would enjoy. It is very important that we continue to provide services in which all our citizens have a stake. That’s how you get the best services. His party’s insistence on means testing would simply go back to that very old adage that services that are reserved for poor people very quickly become poor services. The reason why services continue to be of the standard they are in a civilised society is that we make sure that everybody—the well informed as well as those who struggle, the articulate as well as the inarticulate—has a stake in making those services as good as possible. That’s the sort of education service that we want to see here in Wales.As far as the M4 relief road is concerned, I have very carefully designed the budget so that the expenditure that the Cabinet Secretary with the responsibility needs to have next year for M4 purposes are available directly to him in his portfolio, but the rest of the expenditure for the M4 is held in reserves so that we pay proper respect to the independent public inquiry that is to be conducted. We will know, when that inquiry concludes, the level of funding that will be needed to be secured for those purposes. Thankfully, Dirprwy Lywydd, I’ve not needed to address the issue of tolls on the Severn bridges for the purposes of next year’s budget.

Thank you. I’ve got three more speakers and it’s important that they’re heard as well. So, I’m going to ask for questions without the preambles, if possible. Mike Hedges.

Mike Hedges AC: Thank you, Deputy Presiding Officer. Can I just say that what the Minister agreed with Plaid Cymru are a lot of issues that I would have actually been asking him for if he hadn’t?Austerity for the Tories is a political policy not an economic one. It’s about shrinking the state. It is having a serious effect on public services. I have three questions. On health, can the Minister confirm that the health, well-being and sports budget is now over 50 per cent of managed expenditure and that it’s just under half of total resource and capital?On local government, which is very important to the people of Wales, especially support for health—things like refuse collection, social services, leisure facilities, environmental health and housing all play a major part in keeping people healthy—the pressures on social services, both child and adult services, are immense, and, I would say, far greater than those on health. The importance of education we’ve discussed earlier. What information does the Cabinet Secretary have on pressures on local government expenditure?The third question is—we had a statement on Communities First last week, will the Cabinet Secretary be able to tell us what is being cut from the budget in terms of provision? If Communities First is not going to exist in there, what is going to happen to some of the schemes currently being supported by Communities First? Will they exist under another form, or will they just disappear?

Mark Drakeford AC: As ever, it is possible to do the maths in many different ways. As Mike Hedges said, the responsibilities of my colleague Vaughan Gething now include sport as well as the health service. The best estimate I have of the proportion that health spending takes in next year’s budget is that it remains below 50 per cent of this Assembly’s budget.Of course, I recognise the pressures that there are on social services. Personally, I don’t find it the most helpful way to think about these things as being to regard health and social services as somehow in competition with one another. Our aim is to make sure that they work together to the best possible extent.I hear of the pressures on local government absolutely regularly. As Members will know, I have visited all 22 local authorities in recent months, not a single one of them forwent the opportunity to explain to me the pressures that they face, and those messages culminate in the finances sub-group that we have here in the Welsh Government, where politicians from local government and experts come together to assess those pressures. As far as Communities First is concerned, as Carl Sargeant made clear in his statement last week, this is not a budget-driven set of decisions. He will have decided to bring together in his portfolio a series of spending streams in a new preventative budget, which includes Communities First but also Flying Start and Families First. The policy that the Cabinet Secretary is pursuing is one of how best to use the resources that we have at our disposal, rather than how to reduce them.

Simon Thomas AC: May I thank the Minister for his statement and for the mature and constructive way in which he’s discussed the draft budget with my colleague Adam Price? The budget will now be out for consultation. You will first of all appear before the Finance Committee tomorrow morning to kick off this process. May I ask you, in terms of all of the committees that will look at the budget over the next few weeks, can you explain what role preventative spending will have and what influence important pieces of legislation brought forward by the previous Government, such as the Well-being of Future Generations (Wales) Act 2015 will have, and have they influenced the way in which you have allocated expenditure in this draft budget? Two very specific questions, too, if I may, on what’s included in the budget as we currently find it: can you confirm, as the Assembly has desired, that there should be no cut in the Supporting People programme budget, and that that should remain without any cuts to its budget, as I understand it? Can you also tell us what has happened to the increase of 1 per cent that the previous Government had put in place in terms of expenditure on schools and education for those of five to 16 years of age? As I see it, that guidance has been removed from this budget. If so, is there another target for expenditure in schools that has coloured the decision in the current draft budget? The final question: am I right to interpret your answer on the M4 as meaning that there will be no capital expenditure in this particular budget on the M4, apart from, of course, paying for the public inquiry and so on?

Mark Drakeford AC: Thank you very much, Simon Thomas, for those questions. I look forward to the process of scrutiny. I acknowledge that Members won’t yet have had an opportunity to look through the budget narrative that I published this afternoon, but I hope that more details about the things that Simon Thomas has raised will be available there. I can say this afternoon that Supporting People will not face any cut in its budget.Nid yw wedi bod yn bosibl diogelu’r 1 y cant, a oedd yn un o nodweddion tymor diwethaf y Cynulliad, eto yn y tymor Cynulliad hwn, ond ceir buddsoddiadau sylweddol iawn ym maes addysg.Ceir £20 miliwn ar gyfer gwella addysg yn gyffredinol yn rhan o'r ymrwymiad o £100 miliwn a wnaethom fel Llywodraeth, a bydd y cyllidebau hynny sydd yn rhan o'r grant amddifadedd disgyblion, a oedd yn rhaglen â therfyn amser iddi, yn cael eu parhau y flwyddyn nesaf.Bydd bron i £90 miliwn ar gael bellach ar gyfer y dibenion pwysig iawn hynny.Cyn belled ag y mae’r M4 yn y cwestiwn, dim ond i ailadrodd yr hyn a ddywedais, mae’r arian y bydd ei angen ar Ysgrifennydd y Cabinet ar gyfer dibenion blwyddyn nesaf ar gael iddo drwy ei Brif Grŵp Gwariant ei hun, ond mae'r rhan fwyaf o'r gwariant a allai fod ei angen ar gyfer yr M4, yn dibynnu ar ganlyniad yr ymchwiliad cyhoeddus, yn cael ei gadw mewn cronfeydd wrth gefn i wneud yn siŵr y gellir gweld bod yr ymchwiliad hwnnw yn cael ei gynnal gyda'r annibyniaeth y mae arnom angen iddo ei gael.

Thank you. Finally, Lynne Neagle.

Lynne Neagle AC: Thank you, Deputy Presiding Officer. Can I give a very warm welcome to this budget statement today, set as it is against the backdrop of very, very challenging economic circumstances? I’m delighted to see so many of our programme for government commitments funded in the statement. I particularly welcome the additional money for the health service. As you know, Minister, we have not gone down the road that they have in England, where we have seen extremely harsh reductions in funding, particularly for adult social care. We’ve always taken the view in Wales that the health service and social services go hand in hand. Are you able to outline what additional funding there is in this budget for social care?I’m also very pleased with the announcement about protecting local government funding. My own authority works extremely hard to deliver public services in very challenging circumstances. Unlike Paul Davies though, I would like a slightly different assurance on the allocation of the funding. In my experience, it is deprived authorities that often lose out under the local government formula. So, I would like to ask what steps you are going to take, and obviously we await more detail tomorrow to ensure that it is our neediest communities that receive the most protection.

Mark Drakeford AC: Can I thank Lynne Neagle for her opening remarks? All the key commitments of this Government are reflected in this budget. That’s why it is an ambitious budget, because it sets us on the road to delivering all those key things that we put before people in Wales earlier this year. I agree with her entirely that the only sensible course of action, from the point of view of the citizen, is to regard our health and social care services as a continuum in which they get a service in the round, dealing with all the different aspects that they require, and that’s why we have gone on making sure that we invest in our social care services, at the same time as providing our health services with the investment that they need. As a result, as well as Supporting People being protected in this budget, we will continue next year to provide the full £60 million that was invested this year in the intermediate care fund—£50 million in revenue and another £10 million in capital. And in the local authority budget, which I have set out today, there is £25 million earmarked in that budget for social services purposes, as there was £21 million earmarked for the same purposes in this year, in order to make it clear to our partners in local authorities the extent to which we are determined to go on supporting those vital services in our communities. I can say to Members that in every one of the 22 visits that I made to local authorities, every local authority was able to explain to me why the funding formula for local government in Wales uniquely penalised their particular needs and circumstances. When those individuals get together in the finance group, they recognise that our funding formula brings together a whole range of needs, recognising rurality and sparsity, but quite certainly, recognising at its heart, the relative need between our communities. And I look forward to the opportunity to discuss with Members the way in which those considerations feed through to the statement that I will put before the National Assembly tomorrow afternoon.

Thank you very much, Cabinet Secretary.

5. 4. Statement: The National Infrastructure Commission for Wales

We now move on to the next item on the agenda, which is a statement by the Cabinet Secretary for Economy and Infrastructure on the national infrastructure commission for Wales, and I call on the Cabinet Secretary for Economy and Infrastructure, Ken Skates.

Ken Skates AC: Thank you, Deputy Presiding Officer. Today, I am launching a consultation on a national infrastructure commission for Wales. This Government’s delivery document, ‘Taking Wales Forward’, sets out how we will work to secure more and better jobs through a stronger, fairer economy; improve and reform our public services; and build a united, connected and sustainable Wales. ‘Taking Wales Forward’ pulls no punches. We know how tough the next five years are going to be and how challenging it will be to try and create the level of economic stability needed for the long-term well-being of our people and communities.A fundamental element to improving economic stability is the range and quality of a country’s infrastructure—the physical systems and services that we need to have in place in order for Wales to work effectively. We are living at a time of particular financial uncertainty, which makes it even more important to act now to strengthen the way we consider and prioritise future infrastructure needs and create the conditions for stable, long-term investment. This Government is committed to moving towards a better informed, longer term strategy of investment in infrastructure, which enshrines the principles of the Well-being of Future Generations (Wales) Act 2015. That better informed approach will enable the more efficient development of projects, as their importance and value will be understood by the people of Wales. This Government has therefore committed in ‘Taking Wales Forward’ to establish a national infrastructure commission for Wales, to provide us with independent and expert advice on strategic infrastructure needs and priorities.The establishment of a national infrastructure commission for Wales also reflects our agreements with Plaid Cymru, as part of the compact to move Wales forward. We intend establishing an advisory, non-statutory national infrastructure commission for Wales to provide independent and expert strategic advice. We propose that the commission starts as an advisory body, responsible for analysing, advising and making recommendations to Government on Wales’s longer term infrastructure needs for the next five to 30-year period.Responsibility for making investment decisions for infrastructure that is devolved would remain with Welsh Ministers, and with the UK Government for infrastructure that is non-devolved. The Wales infrastructure investment plan would continue to be set by the Welsh Government, and set out our overall infrastructure investment plan for the term of the administration, which would be informed by the commission. The commission would also inform our national development framework, which will provide a longer term, strategic perspective on planning needs, and is a key component of the changes introduced in the Planning (Wales) Act 2015 for reforming the planning system to ensure that it is fair, resilient and enables development.This Government appreciates that there are a range of models already in existence, and different ideas for the status and the remit of an infrastructure body. We therefore see the establishment of an advisory, non-statutory commission as a first stage in strengthening decision making and delivery on infrastructure, and we are open to changing the body’s status and remit if, with experience, clear benefits emerge for doing so. The consultation asks a range of questions about how the commission should be set up and run in practice, including its relationship with the infrastructure commission that the UK Government is establishing with other bodies, such as those that are already the subject of price control mechanisms.If our commission is going to be a game changer, its members, who will be chosen through a public appointments system, will need to be both independent of Government, expert and experienced. There will be no question of members being appointed because of their office or who they represent. The public appointments exercise we will run will make sure of this. We need people who think and operate across sectors, and are creative and inclusive in analysing future needs—people who will be able to focus on priorities for any new research that will be integrated, and add genuine value to analysing and understanding our infrastructure needs.That is why we are proposing that the commission should be able to look at cross-cutting delivery issues, if it considers them a barrier to delivering infrastructure needs, including governance, costs, financing, and programme or project management methodology. We are determined to have a commission that is as diverse as possible, and are specifically asking for ideas on how best to engender interest from less obvious applicant fields. We are committed to a geographically inclusive commission that advises on infrastructure needs for the whole of Wales, and the consultation proposes arrangements for how the commission engages with people and communities across the country.We want the commission to work in an open and transparent way, and propose that the commission publishes annual reports of its work. The consultation opened yesterday and, taking account of the Christmas break and our desire to receive as many informed responses as possible, extends to 9 January. Depending on the feedback from consultation, we intend establishing the commission by summer 2017.

Have you finished? I never know whether you have, because I always see you turn the page over and I think there’s another page. Adam Price.

Adam Price AC: Thank you, madam Deputy Presiding Officer. I’m very grateful to the Cabinet Secretary for today’s statement and indeed for the commitment to create the infrastructure commission, originally set out in the compact, and also for the willingness that he has just set out in his statement for the role, the remit, the status and the focus of the infrastructure commission to evolve, and for it itself to be able to address some of the wide cross-cutting areas of potential interest that it may want to focus on. I’m grateful to him for having had sight of an early version of the consultation document, which has been published today, and for the positive engagement that we’ve had with the Government so far. He’s aware, and it won’t come as any surprise, obviously, because Plaid Cymru published its own document setting out our vision in terms of the national infrastructure commission recently, that there is some daylight, I think, between us still on a number of issues. If I may, in my short remarks here, I’d just like to concentrate on three of those very, very briefly. The Cabinet Secretary has just said that, at least initially, the infrastructure commission will be constituted on a non-statutory basis. I note that his party colleague and former leader of the Labour party, Neil Kinnock, recently fairly fiercely actually criticised the UK Government’s decision to quietly shelve their plans, previously, to put the UK national infrastructure commission on a statutory footing. He went as far as to claim that this rowing back had actually wrecked the commission because it didn’t give it sufficient status and independence. So, I was wondering if the Cabinet Secretary could respond or reflect on Lord Kinnock’s view that actually a statutory basis is an important element for a successful infrastructure commission. Secondly, on the issue of financing, I note that the Cabinet Secretary did refer to financing as part of those cross-cutting delivery issues that he referred to. It is an area of key concern actually. One of the constraints, one of the co-ordination problems—failures—that we have at the moment, I think, is the ability to put together the complex package of financing that is often required in the kind of major infrastructure investment projects that we’re talking about. It’s a very complex, very specialist field and I think the Cabinet Secretary may be getting a bit of a flavour of that, indirectly, with the Circuit of Wales, for example. And because, of course, we haven’t had an infrastructure commission in Wales, that’s held us back in terms of the quantity and the scale of infrastructure investment. We don’t have the expertise available to us, which is really why, certainly in our vision, we see a central role, whether it’s directly or indirectly, for the infrastructure commission in putting together the financing arrangements, including some of the innovative approaches—the non-profit distributing model that the finance Secretary referred to earlier—but also more conventional approaches to public-private partnership as well. So, I’d be grateful if the Cabinet Secretary could say a little bit about his evolving thinking on the role of the infrastructure commission in that. We’re agnostic as to who does it. There is a suggestion that the development bank could actually build up a team that is specifically looking at infrastructure investment. We’re open to that. The point is that we don’t currently have the expertise in Wales and we need to change that very, very quickly. Lastly, it’s really a question that kind of overlaps, once again, his responsibility and that of his Cabinet colleague the finance Secretary, but it’s a question of the appetite within Government for both accelerating the pace, but also extending the scale of public infrastructure investment. Last year, the OECD produced a report that said that a modern economy, an advanced economy, should be spending around 5 per cent of GVA on the renewal and modernisation of infrastructure. In the UK last year, that was as low as 1.5 per cent. It’s possibly even lower in Wales because of the historic constraints on our ability to invest in projects such as this. The Scottish Government has recently announced a £20 billion programme over the next five years. Is the appetite there in Government, if necessary looking at innovative sources of finance to overcome some of the constraints that we still face in terms of borrowing powers, et cetera? Because would the Cabinet Secretary agree that, as Gerry Holtham, former financial special adviser to the Welsh Government said, this could have a dual benefit for Wales, not just in terms of laying the foundations, through the infrastructure itself, for a generation to come, but also having a very significant stimulus in terms of the economy? If we looked at a £3 billion additional programme over a period of five years, that could be a stimulus equal to 1 per cent additional growth in terms of GVA. So, I’d be very interested to hear what’s the current thinking of the Government in terms of have you got the appetite for actually ramping up a level of public infrastructure investment that, for a variety of reasons, has been far lower than many of our partner and competitor nations elsewhere in Europe over the last few years.

Ken Skates AC: Can I thank the Member for his comments, and put on record my thanks to both Adam Price and to Dai Lloyd for the very constructive discussions that we’ve had? I’d like to thank the Members and their party for the advance notice that I was given as well of the proposals for the Plaid Cymru infrastructure commission for Wales. I do think discussions and the document that you have produced have been invaluable in pressing forward deliberations that we’ve had to date, and, as I set out in my statement, this, I believe, is the first step in establishing an infrastructure commission for Wales. In terms of what’s happened at a UK Government level, I recognise that it was something of a surprise that the UK Government did not proceed with making their commission statutory. We have asked for detailed reasoning in this regard, because we had been developing our model on the basis that they were going to be making theirs statutory, and therefore the natural next step based on evidence gathered in the years to come would be that we could also then transform ours into a statutory body. I’ve pledged to ensure that, by the end of this Assembly, there will be a review of the remit, efficacy and operations of the national infrastructure commission for Wales, so that we can fully assess whether it should be statutory. And then, if so, it will enable us to propose legislation when possible. In terms of the financing of work, of course, it’s essential that I work very closely with colleagues across Government, but in particular with the Cabinet Secretary for Finance and Local Government, but the Member is also right insofar as innovative financing is concerned. I think membership of the infrastructure commission will be absolutely essential in this regard. It will be very important that we have the appropriate expertise that perhaps has not been available until recent times to enable us to deliberate over what sort of innovative finance can actually support the major infrastructure projects that Wales very much needs. If I can just review some of the considerations that we’ve been giving to raising additional funding, we do share the aim of raising additional moneys for public infrastructure investment by developing models that retain most of the attractive features of the non-profit distributing model, but which reflect the current classification regime, which can inhibit some of the developments that are being proposed by Plaid Cymru. We have engaged legal and financial advisers to assist with developing a model that allows for the public sector to capture some of the returns to equity, which, of course, the Scots have been particularly successful with through hub, and which we are also proposing to do. We’ve extensively consulted with colleagues from Scottish Futures Trust and also with Her Majesty’s Treasury, with the Office for National Statistics, Eurostat and the European Public-private Partnership Expertise Centre of the European Investment Bank, and we’re developing our model in consultation with experts, including a peer review with the European expertise centre. In terms of the historic levels of underinvestment in much of our infrastructure, I think during questions earlier, and during the urgent question, I mentioned that, historically, we’ve seen underinvestment in our rail network. It’s fair to say that we need to significantly increase the level of investment right across our physical and digital infrastructure to ensure that we have a country that is well connected and united, and one in which people are able to live within their communities without concern over how they will access places of employment. For that reason, it’s essential that we proceed with what is one of the most ambitious infrastructure programmes that a Government has introduced since the dawn of devolution, which includes proposals for an M4 relief road, a Menai third crossing, and upgrades to the A494, A55, A40, Newtown bypass and Caernarfon bypass, in addition to the next phases of superfast broadband connectivity, and which also captures social programmes, such as new health centres and hospitals, and, of course, twenty-first century schools, higher education and further education.The Member is absolutely right in asserting that capital programmes can dramatically increase the degree of economic growth in a country, and, for that reason, we wish also to accelerate the programme of building so that we actually then fuel the economy of the future of Wales.

Russell George AC: I’d like to thank the Cabinet Secretary for his statement today. The proposed infrastructure commission for Wales doesn’t, I would say, seem to bear much resemblance to the original proposal put forward by Plaid Cymru—a proposal that, of course, formed the basis for Plaid Cymru’s support for the Welsh Government.You’ve also proposed a non-statutory advisory body that doesn’t seem to be truly arm’s length from Government. The Confederation of British Industry have previously noted—and I quote them here—that transferring devolved infrastructure planning, financing and delivery to an independent Welsh infrastructure commission would allow a holistic approach to planning our infrastructure, achieve economies of scale and giving business the confidence to invest.So, can I ask, on that basis, why you chose to limit the role of the commission to providing advice, rather than adopting the Plaid Cymru proposals to borrow the amount stated—£5.5 billion? The UK Government have put its national infrastructure commission on a permanent footing and have established a royal charter. This, of course, provides a commitment of the body’s independence, I’d say. So, can I ask how you will ensure that the commission is independent and also perhaps you could talk to the governance arrangements as well, to that point?The consultation document asks whether the commission’s remit should extend to non-devolved as well as devolved infrastructure. Perhaps the Cabinet Secretary can provide some further details on what impact you feel that a non-statutory Welsh commission will have on non-devolved areas, and how it will influence UK Government decisions. The consultation also states that the remit would not extend to social infrastructure, so I’d be interested in why you have made that decision. Again, it seems to be in contrast to Plaid’s approach. Finally, you state that the commission will enshrine the principles of the Well-being of Future Generations (Wales) Act. Now, how will you propose to monitor and enforce this on a non-statutory body, which is not subject to the Act? Perhaps you could answer whether this will be included in the remit letter that you’ll be sending to the commission.

Ken Skates AC: Can I thank the Member for his contribution, and say that, actually, I think we need to give more respect to the discussions that have taken place between the Government and Plaid Cymru, because the compact is what has actually delivered this piece of work that is now going to be taken forward? I think it is a major piece of work that we can be proud of. In terms of the commission itself, well, it would be independent and, as I said in my statement, the membership of the commission will be appointed on the basis of expert knowledge and experience and certainly not by virtue of any office that they hold. I expect members to be able to think and to operate right across all sectors. They will need to be creative and they will need to be inclusive in analysing future needs and also the public policy challenges ahead of us, such as decarbonisation. Appointments will be made through an open public appointments exercise, which, of course, will be in accordance with the code of practice for ministerial appointments for public bodies. There will be an exception—and this recognises another point that the Member raised—insofar as UK Government activity is concerned and infrastructure across the border. There will be one exception, and that will be the direct appointment of a member of the UK infrastructure commission, which will then recognise the cross-border nature of much of our infrastructure, especially the infrastructure that will be developed in the coming decades, and I think, in particular, the roll-out of the metro north-east and also some of the road infrastructure that extends from mid Wales into the midlands.The Member also raised points about borrowing and why we will not be incorporating within the commission’s remit the ability to be able to borrow. Now, this is largely an issue that’s come to the fore of late. It’s a recent development, but it concerns whether or not borrowing would sit on or off balance sheet. The ONS considers that not-for-profit models cannot apply a profit cap and sit off balance sheet. We know that because there was recently the rejection of the Scottish Government’s application of the model applied to the Aberdeen Western bypass capital project. There are also, of course, questions, which I think have been raised in recent Plenary sessions, concerning our ability to be able to finance borrowing, which would be considerable, estimated between £600 million and £700 million annually. That said, we should not lose sight of the fact that we need to be hugely ambitious insofar as our infrastructure requirements are concerned, and that’s why I’m determined to press ahead with a most ambitious infrastructure building programme.

David J Rowlands AC: Thank you, Cabinet Secretary, for your statement on the commission. I don’t think it’ll come as any surprise to you that those of us who are outside your cosy friendship with Plaid Cymru might be a little worried about who will actually constitute this committee. Is it going to be a number of apparatchiks from both parties or, indeed, are you actually going to look outside party colleagues to actually populate this cabinet? So, can the Cabinet Secretary indicate whether approaches were made to any or all of the following people, the sort of people we would really want to populate this commission, people such as Gerry Holtham, who managed the Morley fund with £125 billion-worth of assets, Nigel Annett, who helped guide Glas Cymru to a not-for-profit organisation, Keith Griffiths, founder of Aedas, an internationally renowned architectural company, and Sir Terry Morgan, chairman of a huge construction project, Crossrail, in London? These people were mooted as possible candidates, and it would seem that they would have been eminently suitable for this crucial committee.

Ken Skates AC: I’d like to thank the Member for his comments and assure him that it is not due to a cosy friendship that we’re here today, presenting plans for a national infrastructure commission, it’s because both parties have decided to be inclusive, to be tolerant and open-minded in discussions that have taken place. We’d welcome any other parties that wish to act in a similar way and that have constructive ideas for us to take forward as a Government. The appointments process will be in line with regular public appointments procedures, and I can assure the Member it will not be carried out by party-political apparatchiks in any way, shape or form whatsoever.

Jenny Rathbone AC: First, I’d like to thank the Cabinet Secretary for prefacing his remarks by saying that, of course, the future generations Act is the umbrella by which we should judge everything. We have to deliver a united, connected and sustainable Wales, and, if we don’t provide the public transport for people to get to work, they won’t be able to keep those precious jobs. So, I’m sure we’re not going to be appointing any apparatchiks. What I am concerned about is that we are appointing people who really understand the challenge of the future technologies that we’re going to need to keep ahead of the game. So, I want to just talk about two things. One is the internet of things. We know that, in Bristol, they track everybody who leaves for work, at what time and where they’re going through their mobile phone. I wonder whether we have that capacity here in Wales; and if not, why not? I’m aware that the Department for Culture, Media and Sport has invested £10 million in a research and development project to look at how it can be made to work in the city region. Is it going to be built into the south Wales metro, and is it going to be built into Cardiff’s new bus station? Because it’s absolutely hopeless that we don’t have that level of connectivity with new technologies.The second thing is that you don’t see many electric cars in Wales, and I wonder why that is. I’m aware that there are many electric points in south Wales. It wouldn’t be surprising if we didn’t see any in north Wales, because there are no electric connection points. So, you won’t be able to get beyond Brecon because you won’t be able to get back. So, obviously, we need to have a network that can provide for the new types of cars that are going to be not polluting in the way that diesel or petrol fumes are. I’m told that some car producers are even forgetting about electric cars and going straight for hydrogen. If that’s the new technology, we only have two connection points in Wales—one in Port Talbot and one in Treforest. So, are these the sorts of things that we are going to be able to really get to grips with in this national infrastructure commission? And are you going to be looking not just beyond Wales but beyond Britain to ensure that we are getting the very best of world-class individuals who really, really understand these new technologies, and that we fast-forward and move beyond the rest of the UK in having the infrastructure that we’re going to need in the future?

Ken Skates AC: Can I thank the Member for the important points and questions that she raised in her contribution, and say that she is absolutely right in that the well-being goals are the driving force behind the creation of an infrastructure commission—goals that will ensure that we focus on longer-term strategies to drive infrastructure investment to help provide the sort of sustainable and integrated communities that we all wish to see across Wales? In respect of a question posed earlier by Russell George with regard to the well-being goals, it would be my intention to invite the commissioner to examine the potential of challenging the commission and holding the commission to account over the implementation of the goals, and for checking that they are being honoured.In terms of membership—and I think the Member is right also to state that membership of the commission will be absolutely essential in paying due regard to emerging digital technologies—I am most certainly not closed to the idea of having experts from outside of Wales join the commission. This will be a fully open and transparent public appointments process, and I would welcome experts from anywhere, whether it be Wales, UK or further afield, because as I said in my statement, we want a diverse commission—one that has members who genuinely add value and are able to demonstrate a clear ability in analysing and understanding our infrastructure needs, not just physical, but also digital.In terms of the city deals and smart cities, well, of course, it was a manifesto pledge for our party to support the development of smart towns and cities. In addition to this, as part of the consultation that took place for the new Wales and borders franchise, it was clear that what passengers wish for is a service that takes advantage of new and emerging digital technologies insofar as ticketing and on-board information is concerned, as well as a variety of other services. So, we would expect, during the process of procurement that is taking place now, four bidders to be able to present ambitious proposals to exploit and take advantage of the very latest and emerging digital technologies in transport.In terms of motor vehicles, it is true that, until recently, Wales has not had as many charging points as we would wish for electric cars. But I am assured by my colleague the Cabinet Secretary for Environment that 100 electric charging points are being developed across Wales. The Member is also right to identify hydrogen cell cars as actually being a particular focus of research and development now. In this regard, we have a very proud story to tell with Riversimple in mid Wales—a company that is being supported by Welsh Government; a company that featured in the opening session of today’s Autolink 2016 conference here in Cardiff. I will be making a statement on export opportunities in the coming weeks, based on my recent trip to Japan. But last week, when I spoke with investors in Japan, there was clear knowledge of the research and development that has taken place with regard to hydrogen cell cars in Wales and in the UK. There is a good amount of interest in supporting that research and helping us to exploit it for the benefit not just of car users but the wider environment.

Vikki Howells AC: I would like to thank you, Cabinet Secretary. I very much welcome your announcement today. I understand that the Welsh Government is clearly at a very early stage with regard to the commission, but one thing I would like to focus on is the fact that these infrastructure developments that we are looking at must be linked back to good jobs and work and training opportunities. I was struck by a fact that I read on the weekend that no Welsh local authority has as many jobs now as it did before Thatcher started swinging her axe in 1981. What guidance will the Welsh Government give to the commission to ensure that good work opportunities are prioritised? In addition, how will the Welsh Government’s ambitious apprenticeships policy tie into the work of the commission? Finally, I think the Valleys taskforce has a key role to play in delivering the commission’s objectives. How will it fit into the work of the commission?

Ken Skates AC: I think the Member is absolutely right to identify the need for higher quality jobs within the economy, not just in order to give improved life chances to people right across all of our communities, but also to drive up the GVA of the Welsh economy. We will be piloting a Better Jobs, Closer to Home project, I believe, in the Valleys as part of the Valleys taskforce that my colleague the Minister for lifelong learning, is chairing. It is essential that we use every lever at our disposal to ensure that people who have not been able to access opportunities for well-paid work are given opportunities through investment in infrastructure. I do believe that, alongside the development of the infrastructure commission, the creation of the development bank will assist in levering additional resources into small and medium-sized enterprises, which will be absolutely essential in order to enable them to grow their capital and therefore take advantage of some of the major infrastructure schemes that are coming down the line. Perhaps what’s most important of all to employers in the private sector and the public sector is a clear pipeline of opportunities for infrastructure upgrades. It is something that I hear very regularly from representatives of companies of all sizes—the need for a predictable and scheduled provision of infrastructure projects that can be exploited. This is something that I believe the commission could have a very important role in delivering.

Dai Lloyd AC: May I thank the Cabinet Secretary for Economy and Infrastructure for his statement, and welcome this statement indeed, and also thank him for his kind words? I thank him for the collaboration over the past few months between his office and Adam Price’s office and my office, on this idea of a national infrastructure commission for Wales, the NICW. Of course, as the Cabinet Secretary has already said, our NICW is different to your NICW, isn’t it? But more about that in due course. Of course, our NICW has been the fruit of four years’ thorough and detailed work on the part of Adam Price and colleagues, and those who research this kind of issue, and people working in the field, naturally. We launched it, as you’ve already mentioned, and as Adam mentioned, a few weeks ago, and people such as the Institution of Civil Engineers were very excited about these ideas for a NICW that was put before them at that time. That is, an empowered NICW that stands alone, on its own two feet and can borrow, naturally, and can also draw in other sources of funding.So, a very powerful body—that is the vision, because, as you know, we live in very difficult times. The economy of Wales—. If you look at the wealth, 75 per cent of our wealth, as such, comes from the public sector and only 25 per cent comes from the private sector. In order to increase wealth, we need to increase what business does, and to develop the economy, as you know, we need to invest in skills and also invest in infrastructure, and there’s a genuine need to invest in infrastructure. You mentioned that we need to be ambitious. Well, we do need to be ambitious, and innovative, because we need to go for it. We have several projects in the pipeline—we’ve hear about them this afternoon, and about we need to do. There’s an estimate here that there are infrastructure projects worth £40 billion waiting to be constructed. We will stay waiting for those if we don’t do something innovative and different about the investment system, and get hold of the capital in order to build these things. So, that’s why we’ve brought forward our idea of a national infrastructure commission before you. I’m very pleased that the Cabinet Secretary has welcomed that idea and has been willing to develop it and to be open to discussion, as you’ve already announced here. We would expect to see a little bit of evolution of your original idea of having some kind of body that is only to consult and to advise. Fundamentally, we need a body that is going to do things, and as the civil engineers and others in the field have already said, that’s what they want to see happening, because time is against us and there are grave concerns, especially in these uncertain days following Brexit. We need to get to grips with these issues. So, I see that we are going to be able to consult now. Can I just ask: how open are you to changing your mind? If you’re going to have a whole host of people coming back to you and saying ‘Well, actually, we would prefer to have an empowered body that can do things such as borrow’, then are you going to go for it and change your mind, basically, and develop the kind of infrastructure that Jenny Rathbone and Vikki Howells and others mentioned? We will just be adding to the waiting list if we don’t get to grips with these things.I would like to know, as Adam has already asked, what exactly is the rationale, at present, behind exiling social construction projects such as constructing schools, building hospitals and homes? Why can’t we do that ourselves under the NICW remit? Under our particular NICW, I would like to think that we could be able to do that, and I would hope that your NICW could develop the ability to do that, too. Because, at the end of the day, there is a genuine need to go for it. The situation of the economy is fragile. We need to develop jobs for our young people and develop the wealth of our nation, and there is a way here, with the development of this adventurous body, for us to be innovative and to lead the way in these isles. Thank you.

Ken Skates AC: I'd like to thank Dai Lloyd for his comments and for his kind thanks, as well, for the way that I and my office have been able to discuss proposals with him and with Adam Price. I've said before that I've no monopoly on wisdom or any copyrights on good ideas, and I think what this process has shown us is that, actually, it's really important that we should share good ideas, discuss and debate them, and then reach an informed position, rather than to just flippantly reject them. For that reason, I can assure the Member that I'm very much open to alternatives being proposed during the course of the consultation. That was one of the reasons why I wanted to make sure the consultation was open for a good period, so that it allows us to take into consideration the latest position, in particular with regard to the Scottish Government’s model and the recent judgment north of the border as well, because that clearly had an impact on the way that we approached your party’s model for a national infrastructure commission for Wales. I won’t rehearse the other issues that we’ve had during discussions and the concerns that I’ve raised in the Chamber and in private discussions with you. Suffice it to say that I am open to persuasive arguments for amending the model that I have proposed this week.In terms of the level of infrastructure that is required to fuel economic growth in the future, I think it’s also important that we respect the role of the private sector in delivering what could be game-changing projects in Wales. For that reason, I think the commission’s role in taking a long-term look at our infrastructure needs will be absolutely essential. In terms of two projects alone, Wylfa Newydd and the tidal lagoon in Swansea bay, we have the potential to lever in more than £15 billion of investment and provide work for thousands upon thousands of people for many years to come. That’s important because it requires Welsh Government to ensure that the infrastructure that’s necessary is in place for those projects to be delivered on time and in a way that captures as many job opportunities as possible for local people. I think that’s why as well, alongside the development of the commission, it’s going to be important that we gain an evidence base from the Better Jobs, Closer to Home pilot to inform how we’re going to be ensuring that major infrastructure projects benefit communities and people that perhaps in the past have not benefitted from major infrastructure projects. In terms of social infrastructure, I feel that the processes in place at present for determining where and what social infrastructure should be delivered are fair and are operating properly, and operating responsibly. But, again, during the process of the consultation, I would be open to any persuasive arguments to the contrary.

Thank you. I have two more speakers who I intend to take, so if it’s just a question and a short answer from the Minister, we’ll get through that. Jeremy Miles.

Jeremy Miles AC: Diolch, Ddirprwy Lywydd. I welcome the statement from the Cabinet Secretary. You indicate in the consultation that the work of the commission, and the commission’s advice, needs to be set in the context of a realistic forecast of the level of capital investment that’s likely to be available, and you’ve spoken a bit about the range of sources that might come from. Is it your intention that Government would indicate to the commission in the remit letter what the sort of envelope of funding might be, or would that be something that you’d expect the commission itself to generate?

The Presiding Officer took the Chair.

Jeremy Miles AC: Secondly, briefly, in terms of the criteria that will be used to assess the viability of any particular project, is it the intention to look more broadly at the impact of a particular project on the local and regional and, in fact, national economy? I ask the question because I gather than only two transport projects, Crossrail and the northern line extension, have been green lit formally on that basis. So, I’d be interested in your thoughts on the criteria for endorsing particular projects.

Ken Skates AC: Can I thank Jeremy Miles for his questions and say that, under the model that we are proposing in terms of the pool of available funding, the financing and the delivery of infrastructure would remain the responsibility of Government. It would be informed by the advice of the new body, but the actual quantum of resources available would still be determined by Government. I would expect members, in regard to the impact assessment that the Member drew attention to, to adopt best practice insofar as assessment of economic or other impacts are concerned, and this will require, of course, the right members of the commission to be appointed.

Hannah Blythyn AC: I likewise welcome today’s statement and, Cabinet Secretary, your response to my colleague Vikki Howells when you alluded to the importance of having a clear pipeline for projects, which is something that was brought to me first hand in a visit to Tarmac in Hendre in my constituency yesterday, when they stressed the importance of a more structured approach to major infrastructure projects. In the statement, Cabinet Secretary, you say the Welsh Government is‘committed to a geographically inclusive commission that advises on infrastructure needs for the whole of Wales’.I’d urge you to place a strong emphasis on that. Also, in the consultation, it says about expert knowledge. I think that needs to also take into account that knowledge and understanding of the diverse and different demands of the regions and factors across the nation to ensure that that inclusivity is relevant within all the work.

Ken Skates AC: Can I thank the Member for her questions and say I’m very familiar with Tarmac in Hendre? I believe that it was formerly the Lloyd quarry—the Lloyd family of Pantymwyn. I was particularly pleased to be able to join the Member yesterday at P&A fencing in Mold to learn of their plans to more than double the number of employees that they have, in part off the back of providing fencing for major infrastructure programmes. That demonstrated how small and medium-sized enterprises in Wales can take advantage of major infrastructure programmes across the country.I think the Member is absolutely right to call for geographical respect to be paid to our infrastructure. In regard to this, I will ensure that the commission meets not just in south-east Wales, where one might expect it, but also across Wales—in north Wales, in mid Wales and in west Wales.

I thank the Cabinet Secretary.

6. 5. Statement: The Bovine TB Eradication Programme

The next item is the statement by the Cabinet Secretary for Environment and Rural Affairs on the bovine TB eradication programme. I call on the Cabinet Secretary, Lesley Griffiths.

Lesley Griffiths AC: Diolch, Lywydd. I would like to update Members on the Welsh Government’s refreshed TB eradication programme.Our 2012 framework for bovine TB eradication in Wales comes to an end this year. It is time to take stock, reflect on our successes, learn lessons and consider a refreshed approach. Since 2012, we’ve seen a downward trend in the number of new cases of bovine TB in cattle herds in Wales. The number of new TB incidents has fallen by 19 per cent compared to the same period last year. Additionally, the number of herds under TB restrictions has fallen by 10 per cent. The increase in the number of cattle slaughtered in Wales because of TB is primarily due to increased, targeted use of the gamma interferon blood test to help clear infection in recurrent and persistent breakdowns.To illustrate, we are seeing an improving situation, in comparison to the same period last year, 68 fewer herds are under TB restrictions because of a TB incident in Wales. Further, the latest figures show the number of new TB incidents is currently at its lowest level in 10 years. I’m keen to build on this success and speed-up progress with a set of evidence-based, enhanced measures. We must focus on our long-term objective of TB eradication. Our approach to disease eradication has focused on all sources of TB infection, including cattle-to-cattle and wildlife-spread TB and will continue to do so.The refreshed programme contains a comprehensive and coherent suite of measures, including a new, regional approach to the eradication of TB with three categories of areas based on TB incidence, strengthening of cattle controls, wildlife measures and changes to compensation. We will also be revisiting our programme governance. Today, I am launching a 12-week consultation on our refreshed approach. I would like all parties who are affected by bovine TB or have an interest in our programme to consider our proposals and provide comments, which will help shape our plans. We’ve now completed almost seven years of annual herd testing, which continues to identify infection early and provides an invaluable data set demonstrating the differing disease picture across Wales. I intend to maintain annual herd testing for as long as necessary. We know from the TB dashboard that disease incidence is not uniform across Wales and there are different drivers of the disease in each area. As I explained in the debate last month, we are now in a position to take a more regionalised approach to TB eradication measures. We will use three categories of areas across Wales: low, intermediate and high-TB incidence. For each area, we will tailor our approach to reflect the disease conditions and risks. We want to protect the low-TB area and drive down incidence in the intermediate and high-TB areas. In order to achieve these goals, the measures to be deployed in each area must be targeted and proportionate, and I would like to hear stakeholder’s views on our proposals, which will contribute to our long-term objective of TB eradication. We’ve been targeting herds that have been under TB restrictions for over 18 months with enhanced measures. We are now extending this to include problem areas and herds suffering recurring TB breakdowns. All of these chronic breakdown herds will have individual, bespoke action plans, developed in partnership with the farmer, vet and Animal and Plant Health Agency, aimed at clearing up infection. These action plans will include measures such as increased sensitivity and frequency of testing and removing inconclusive reactors. The top 10 longest ongoing TB breakdowns alone have cost the Government over £10 million in compensation since 2009. Some of these herds have been under TB restrictions for more than 10 years. It is anticipated that expanding this aspect of the programme will target disease in these chronic breakdowns and reduce the overall weight of infection.I’m also seeking views on imposing compensation penalties for animals moved within a multisite restricted holding in chronic herd breakdowns if they are subsequently slaughtered as a result of TB. We already reduce compensation in cases where cattle are brought into a restricted herd under licence in order to better share the financial risk, whilst helping farmers stay in business. This approach will further strengthen our programme by managing the disease risk posed by certain movements of cattle within a holding. The majority of farmers comply with the TB rules, however those who do not should be penalised because they are putting our aims on TB eradication at risk. I am, therefore, considering applying penalties to common agricultural policy subsidy payments for certain breaches of the TB Order. Linking behaviours and compliance with the rules to financial penalties is already embedded within our programme. Farmers must accept there will be financial consequences if they do not to follow the requirements.Farmers should also consider risk when purchasing cattle. Informed purchasing schemes have made a significant contribution to TB eradication in both Australia and New Zealand. These countries are leading the way in TB eradication and we must continue to learn lessons from them and replicate the most useful controls. To help farmers make informed decisions about the health of the cattle they wish to purchase, I am considering the proposal to make an informed purchasing scheme mandatory in Wales. There is evidence in some chronic herd breakdowns that wildlife is involved in the disease-transmission process. I have asked officials to engage with vets and wildlife experts to develop ways to break the transmission cycle in chronic herd breakdowns where it can be demonstrated that badgers are contributing to the problem. I will be clear: we will continue to rule out an English-style cull of badgers, with farmers free-shooting infected and healthy badgers themselves. However, a range of other options are available, including learning from the pilot in Northern Ireland. This involves cage-trapping badgers and humane killing of infected animals. In high-incidence areas where there is a chronic herd breakdown and where we have objective that confirmation badgers are infected, we are considering whether a similar approach might be acceptable and appropriate, again working with vets and wildlife experts.Vaccination still has a role to play in our approach to TB eradication and the availability of badger vaccine is something I am closely monitoring. Vaccine specifically for use in badgers will not be available in 2017. The availability of other vaccine is still an option we are exploring. However, it is premature to think about the future deployment of the vaccine until we know exactly when the supply will be restored.Every farm, without exception, whether it has suffered a TB breakdown or not, should always follow good biosecurity and husbandry practices. Biosecurity is key in protecting animals from bovine TB and other serious animal diseases, and farmers should be able to assess their risk. Working with farmers and their vets and building on our earlier work in this area, I intend to develop a single, standardised biosecurity scoring tool, which can be used by every farmer to assess levels of biosecurity on their farms. I am seeking views on reducing the TB compensation cap to £5,000. This cap will not affect the majority of farmers. Based on the figures from last year, a cap of £5,000 would affect 1 per cent of cattle valued, but would offer savings in the region of £300,000 a year. The purpose of the cap is to protect the Welsh Government in relation to the cost of the highest-value animals. Since 2011, valuations for pedigree cattle have been around twice as much as the average market value. This suggests that, despite the measures we have in place, overcompensation is occurring in some instances.Finally, I propose to revisit the governance of the TB eradication programme. The current programme structure has been in place since 2008, and with the new regionalised approach to TB eradication and launch of a reflect approach, this is the right time to review the governance arrangements of our programme. Following the consultation, I will consider all responses and officials will draw up a revised programme of activities. I intend to publish this refreshed TB eradication programme in the spring, with a view to the new measures being introduced from April of next year. This refreshed TB eradication programme will put us in a stronger position to ensure we continue to make progress towards a TB-free Wales.

Simon Thomas AC: May I start by thanking the Cabinet Secretary for bringing a comprehensive statement to the Assembly this afternoon? And may I say at the outset that there has been a void in terms of policy in terms of what the Government has proposed to do in eradicating TB in cattle, in the fact vaccines weren’t available and the fact that the Government had been reliant on a vaccine to deal with the disease? Now it seems to me that the Government, in considering this statement, does accept the current situation as it exists, and that we do need to tackle the disease in the wildlife reservoir as well, and that we also need to consider alternative options. In that context, may I tell her that farmers and the agricultural industry more widely will expect that to happen? Although the number of herds that are infected is reducing, the intensity of infection is increasing and, as she has outlined to be fair, in her statement today, in some areas the disease is almost in the ground and it’s impossible to deal with without tackling the wildlife reservoir too. May I just ask a few specific questions, therefore, because this is the beginning of a consultation process, as the Cabinet Secretary has already outlined? First of all, she says that this consultation and the new ideas proposed in her statement will lead to a refreshed approach to the governance of the TB eradication programme. Of course, the programme is something that has been given the consent of the European Commission and she will know, as I do, that a number of farmers would be concerned that any plan that we have in Wales should pass the tests put in place by the Commission to ensure that exports from Wales are respected, and also, as we leave the European Union, that that situation should continue. So, Cabinet Secretary, can you just outline how you will ensure that the new, refreshed programme will be given that approval?A gaf i droi at y clefyd a'r gydnabyddiaeth yn eich datganiad bod y clefyd yn cael ei drosglwyddo rhwng bywyd gwyllt a gwartheg, er nad yw hynny bob amser yn drosglwyddiad uniongyrchol, ond fel rhywbeth sy'n gynhenid ​​yn yr amgylchedd a’r borfa?Rydych chi’n cydnabod yn y datganiad bod yn rhaid i ni reoli'r clefyd o fewn y boblogaeth bywyd gwyllt, yn enwedig, yn eich geiriau chi, mewn ardaloedd sydd ag achosion cronig o TB, lle mae wir yn broblem.A gaf i groesawu’r ffaith eich bod yn dweud na fydd unrhyw ddifa yn digwydd fel sydd wedi'i wneud yn Lloegr? Rwy'n credu bod hynny'n bwysig. Rwy’n derbyn hynny'n llwyr ac nid wyf yn credu bod yr hyn y mae Lloegr wedi dewis ei wneud wedi bod yn arbennig o lwyddiannus o gwbl. Fodd bynnag, rydych chi yn derbyn y dylid mynd i'r afael â'r cysylltiad rhwng bywyd gwyllt a'r clefyd mewn gwartheg. Nid oes gennym frechiad. A allwch chi ddweud ychydig mwy am sut y gallech chi ystyried gweithredu’r hyn y gwnaethoch chi ddewis ei gynnwys fel tystiolaeth yn eich datganiad ynglŷn â dysgu o'r profiad yng Ngogledd Iwerddon? A allwch chi egluro y gall hynny, i bob pwrpas, olygu y gallai grŵp o foch daear heintiedig gael eu lladd yn hytrach na mochyn daear unigol ac, wrth gwrs, bwysleisio bod hyn yn ymwneud â chael gwared ar y clefyd ym mhoblogaeth y moch daear? Nid yw'n golygu difa moch daear yn gyffredinol neu ddifa moch daear mewn ardal benodol. Rydym wedi gorfod symud ymlaen o'r sefyllfa yr oeddem ynddi rai blynyddoedd yn ôl lle rhoddwyd cynnig ar gael meysydd gweithredu yng Nghymru. Mae gennym brofiad o frechu yn yr un ardal weithredu benodol yr wyf i’n ei chynrychioli ac mae hi’n amlwg yn amser yn awr i fynd i’r afael â’r haint ymysg y boblogaeth bywyd gwyllt yn y ffermydd hynny lle mae achosion o heintiau yn digwydd dro ar ôl tro.Dim ond i droi yn benodol at eich cynnig ynglŷn â gosod cap ar iawndal.Sut ydych chi'n mynd i sicrhau na fydd yr un ffars a gawsom y tro diwethaf y buom ni’n edrych ar daliadau iawndal yn digwydd eto?Rwy’n derbyn eich bod eisiau sicrhau nad oes gorbrisio yn digwydd yn y broses yma, ond ai gosod cap ar iawndal yw’r ffordd o wneud hynny, yn hytrach na chanolbwyntio mwy ar sicrhau prisio cywir a’r defnydd cywir o’r gweithdrefnau prisio hynny, fel yr ydych chi’n ei wneud yng nghyd-destun ffermio?Tybed beth sydd wedi gwneud i chi feddwl mai gosod cap ar iawndal, sy’n ddull eithaf eithafol o fynd i’r afael â’r broblem—mae’n broblem eithaf mawr, rwy’n derbyn hynny—ond mae’n ddull eithaf eithafol hefyd.Nid yw'n ystyried gwir werth yr anifeiliaid pedigri, ac mae hynny'n rhywbeth rwy’n credu y bydd ffermwyr yn awyddus i dderbyn sicrwydd yn ei gylch.A allwch chi ddweud ychydig mwy am y potensial i wneud prynu doeth yn orfodol yng Nghymru? Mae hyn yn rhywbeth y gwnes i fy hun ei drafod ddoe ym marchnad y Trallwng. Nid yw’r pryder yn y fan honno yn ymwneud cymaint â’r hyn a allai ddigwydd yng nghyd-destun Cymru, ond pryder ynglŷn â sut y mae hynny'n effeithio ar gludo trawsffiniol, sut y mae'n effeithio gwerthiant-caiff llawer o anifeiliaid eu gwerthu yn y Trallwng, fel y gallwch ddychmygu, ar draws y ffin-ac yn arbennig y ffordd nad yw rhai prynwyr gwartheg o’r tu allan i Gymru, yn gynyddol, yn ymgysylltu mewn gwirionedd â’r farchnad wartheg yng Nghymru, oherwydd bod ganddynt bryderon ynglŷn â statws TB yng Nghymru. Efallai y bydd rhai pethau eraill yr ydych wedi eu nodi yn y datganiad yn helpu â’r pryderon hynny, ond rwyf eisiau deall sut y gall prynu doeth weithio yng Nghymru pan fo llawer iawn o’n gwerthiannau yn digwydd yn drawsffiniol, a pha un a fyddwch chi’n modelu hynny cyn ei gyflwyno efallai.Felly, y peth olaf i’w ddweud yw fy mod yn cydnabod ac yn croesawu’r ffaith bod yna ddull rhanbarthol wedi’i nodi yma yn eich datganiad.Mae'n rhywbeth y mae Plaid Cymru wedi gofyn amdano yn gyson, ac rydym ni’n dymuno bod yr amrywiaeth ehangaf posibl o adnoddau ar gael, nid dim ond yn uniongyrchol i ffermwyr, ond i'r Llywodraeth hefyd, i fynd i’r afael â'r clefyd yn seiliedig ar angen lleol a statws y clefyd.Rwy'n credu mai'r peth olaf i’w ofyn ac i’w ddweud yw, fel yr ydych chi’n nodi yn eich cynnig, pan mai’r nod yw mynd i'r afael â TB sydd wedi’i wreiddio’n ddwfn drwy weithio gyda ffermwyr ac arbenigwyr a milfeddygon, y byddwch chi’n sicrhau bod yr hyn yr ydym wedi’i ddysgu gan Ogledd Iwerddon a’r potensial sy’n bodoli i dargedu’r boblogaeth bywyd gwyllt mewn gwirionedd, yn ddewis ar gyfer y ffordd ymlaen.

Lesley Griffiths AC: Diolch, Simon Thomas, for those questions. I refute allegations that there’s been a lull in our TB eradication programme since we announced we wouldn’t be vaccinating badgers. That’s just one part of the programme; we have other measures, and that includes the animal testing regime. We have been testing much harder than we were. We’ve got Cymorth TB. We’ve had informed purchasing, albeit, obviously, a voluntary scheme. But I do think that that is just one part of our scheme. In answer to your question regarding the governance of the boards being looked at, there are several aspects to that. If we’re going to have this regionalisation, obviously, we are out to consultation now—it’s a 12-week consultation; it ends on 10 January—and there are a lot of things that we haven’t got the answers to yet, and I do really want to consider the responses we get. We need to look at the boards because the boards are based on regions now that wouldn’t concur with the regions that we would have going forward. So, I think we need to look at that. I also want to look at the gender balance of our boards, and I’m sure you won’t be surprised to hear me say that. In relation to the Northern Ireland—. And I’m very pleased you welcome making it very clear that there won’t be an England-style cull, but I have looked at the Northern Ireland pilot very, very closely over the summer. What I want to see are those bespoke action plans brought forward. We’re not going to consult on that—that will happen—and it’s really important that we have—. You know, no-one’s got the answer. We really need to work together. I don’t have the answers standing here; farmers don’t have the answers. It’s really important that we work together. So, what I want to see are those bespoke action plans drawn up with the farmer, with their vets, with our vets if necessary, and with the Animal and Plant Health Agency to make sure that we are dealing with that. It has proven quite difficult, I think. We have little understanding about how TB spreads between cattle and badgers, so it’s very important that farmers understand the badger activity on their farms, and that we all work together in relation to that. And you’re right, it is about the health and welfare of the badger population also. So, I have asked, as I say, officials to look at that very closely.In relation to trade, I know that there have been concerns mentioned about trade. It’s not just Wales that has TB; there are other parts of the EU where bovine TB is present. I think it’s really important that we maintain our reputation for absolutely the highest animal health and welfare standards. I was in SIAL in Paris yesterday, where it was very clear that people accepted that our produce was of absolutely the highest quality. It was mentioned to me several times that people understand that Wales has that very high animal health and welfare standard.In relation to capping compensation, I’ve thought about that again very carefully. It’s out to consultation, as I say, and if people feel that—. As you say, it is a large nut and maybe it is a large sledgehammer, but I think we do need to look at that. We have to understand that, going forward, coming out of the EU, 10 per cent of our TB eradication programme budget is from the EU—it’s about £2 million to £3 million that we’re not going to have. So, we need to look at ways of saving money. I will, again, look very closely at the consultation responses we have in relation to the compensation. I understand farmers’ concerns. It was actually a farmer himself who said to me, ‘We can insure our cattle if we feel they’re of a much higher value.’ We can look at that, as I say, when we have the responses to the consultation.Informed purchasing, again, that would be part of the consultation, but I think that there is a great deal of work that we can do to help farmers mitigate the risk of buying infected cattle. And it’s not just working with farmers, it’s working with markets, and I know we’ve encouraged markets to put boards up when cattle are being sold, to have information around that. But, we need to look at cross-border. Obviously, if it has an impact across the border, I’m very happy to look at that, coming out of the consultation.

Paul Davies AC: Can I also thank the Cabinet Secretary for her statement this afternoon? I’d like to state for the record that my parents-in-law’s farm has been affected by bovine TB over the last 15 years, and I know from personal experience how devastating it is.Whilst I welcome the Welsh Government’s consultation on its refreshed approach, the Cabinet Secretary will not be surprised to hear that I believe the measures included in the approach do not yet go far enough to eradicate this awful disease. I believe that a full holistic approach is now needed, which includes using all the tools in the box to eliminate bovine TB in both our cattle and wildlife populations. I’m extremely disappointed that today’s statement does not yet include a much more holistic approach to tackling this disease in our wildlife.Indeed, the European Court of Auditors’ report into the eradication, control and monitoring programmes of animal diseases, published in April, recognised that more consideration was needed for bovine TB with targeted measures for wildlife. Therefore, my first question to the Cabinet Secretary is whether or not she accepts the findings of the commission. And, in line with that thinking, and in addition to monitoring developments in Northern Ireland, what other specific steps will she now take to eradicate bovine TB in the wildlife population? Indeed, perhaps the Cabinet Secretary will tell us how long the Welsh Government intends to monitor developments in Northern Ireland with vets and wildlife experts, or whether these developments will actually be part of the 12-week consultation.There are also concerns regarding the testing of cattle, given the age and sensitivity of the current test. We know that the current test has a sensitivity range of 80 to 90 per cent, and so the Welsh Government must work with the Animal and Plant Health Agency and the veterinary industry to re-evaluate whether the test is, indeed, fit for purpose or not. Today’s statement refers to the increased use of the gamma interferon test, but perhaps the Cabinet Secretary could tell us how the Welsh Government is assessing gamma interferon tests and antibody tests, and whether it’s her intention to see any other new testing procedures rolled out. Indeed, is there any scope within the consultation to look at testing procedures? I understand that, last year, the Cabinet Secretary invested in a gamma testing facility in Carmarthen, and perhaps she could update Members on that work.I accept that previous Welsh Governments have supported a vaccination policy and I agree with today’s statement that vaccination still has a role to play. However, there is still much more work to be done to understand how much TB is actually spread from cattle to cattle, from cattle to badgers, and from badger to badger, which would undoubtedly impact the performance of any vaccine. I note from the statement today that the Cabinet Secretary has asked officials to engage with vets and wildlife experts to develop ways to break the transmission cycle. Therefore, can the Cabinet Secretary provide a little bit more detail about the type of engagement she wants to see?Now, today’s statement also mentions a regional approach, with three categories of TB areas across Wales being assigned, based on incident levels, and that the Welsh Government is looking at different strategies for these different categories. Whilst I understand that a risk-based approach must be taken to reflect regional differences in terms of the prevalence of the disease, it’s also essential that any new area risk-based strategies are not disproportionate for farmers and that farmers are not facing impossibly stringent controls. Therefore, perhaps the Cabinet Secretary could tell us what measures will be deployed in each of the new category areas and how those measures will actually be proportionate for farmers.Of course, as the statement recognises, increased biosecurity measures should be considered an essential part of any bovine TB strategy, and I hope the Welsh Government is not just providing more guidance and orders to farmers about on-farm and off-farm biosecurity, but providing additional financial support to offset any increased costs too. Indeed, could the Cabinet Secretary tell us if there will be an opportunity for farmers to apply for funding from the rural development programme for biosecurity tools, such as cattle-handling facilities and badger-proof feed troughs, for example?Llywydd, I’ve been very clear that I want to see a strategy in place to tackle bovine TB that uses all of the tools at the Welsh Government‘s disposal. We must properly eradicate bovine TB in our wildlife population as well as our cattle population, and the only way to do that is to include a culling of infected badgers in a humane way. I note that she has not yet completely ruled that out in today’s statement. So, I welcome some of the measures in the Cabinet Secretary’s refreshed approach today, but I believe the Government’s approach does not yet go far enough. I want to make it clear to the Cabinet Secretary that we on this side of the Chamber will continue to scrutinise her policies in this area, and we will also continue to call for the Government to do the right thing by adopting a fully holistic approach to eradicating bovine TB once and for all. Thank you.

Lesley Griffiths AC: I thank Paul Davies for his comments and that series of questions. I think we are taking a holistic approach. I think it’s very important that we do look at the tools at our disposal. Please remember this is a consultation and I will certainly consider all the responses we have before making any decisions. I’ve told officials I want it to be very quick, so the consultation will close on 10 January, and I want the refreshed programme to be in place certainly by the start of the financial year, so we’ll respond to the consultation in the spring. You referred to the skin test that we undertake, and whilst I recognise it is the only test that’s recognised by the relevant European legislation, a recent estimate of comparative skin test performance in Great Britain established it has a specificity of 99.98 per cent. So, only one animal in 5,000 is likely to give a false-positive test result. The test has been used worldwide in very successful TB eradication programmes.You referred to monitoring Northern Ireland. What I said was I’d been looking at the pilot over the summer. I’ve also looked at what’s gone on in Australia and in New Zealand. Australia has been declared TB free, and that’s my ambition for Wales. I think the regionalisation aspect of this is what’s very important in this, because, if we look at the areas that we’ve deemed low, intermediate and high, it’s been based on epidemiology. There will be different approaches in each one. Looking at north-west Wales, which will be a low TB area, I really believe that, if some of the measures that we’re consulting on are then put in place, that could be the first TB-free area of Wales, and we are allowed to do that within the European legislation—a member state or part of a member state is allowed to do that. So, if we look at the criteria around that, that could possibly be the first area, and I think that would be a very positive message to send out there. So, the priority for—. You asked about the different approaches we will take for the different areas, so the priority for that area is to prevent the disease being introduced through the movement of undetected infected cattle, so to keep the incidence low and then become TB free. So, we’ll protect that area, and, because there’s very little, if any, endemic disease in that area, pre-movement testing will no longer be required for movements from that area. I will continue to have herds tested annually to make sure that we catch disease at the earliest opportunity. As I said, there’s no recognised significant reservoir of the disease in the wildlife population in that area.In relation to the intermediate TB areas, we anticipate again, if the disease situation improved in those two areas, it’s likely the low TB area then would grow to encompass those areas. Again, we’ll test herds annually to make sure that we catch the disease at the earliest opportunity, but we need to protect those areas from it being introduced through cattle movements from the higher disease areas—I think that’s really important—and better deal with the level of disease that is already there. It’s also important that we prevent the disease from becoming established in the badger population there. Again, there’s very little evidence of TB infection in wildlife there. We’ve had only one positive badger found dead in both of the intermediate areas. In relation to the high TB areas, we’re going to increase whole-herd testings there to six-monthly to try and find the infection earlier. Again, if there’s a high number of recurring breakdowns, it suggests either a high re-infection rate or infection that persists in the herd even after its declared TB free, because I think that’s been happening also. Local spread seems to be a significant factor. So, again, we’ve had our badger found dead survey, and, whilst we have to be careful how we interpret those results, that has confirmed the presence of TB in the badger population in those areas.

Neil Hamilton AC: Like Simon Thomas and Paul Davies, I welcome this statement today. There’s a lot in it with which we can all agree. I particularly commend the Cabinet Secretary for the work that she’s doing in respect of biosecurity, and that’s undoubtedly had a significant impact on containing the spread of this disease. I’m not quite as sanguine as she is about the extent of her successes generally, so far. It is true that there has, in recent months, been a dip in the number of new herds affected, but then there are fewer herds to be affected. So, the extent to which this is an example of the success of the policy is debatable. What we do know is that nearly 10,000 cattle were culled in the year to July. That’s an increase following on the increase in the previous year and an increase on the year before that, and it still remains to be seen how far this trend continues.I’m sure she’ll agree with me that, looking at this whole problem in terms of animal welfare, we have to consider the welfare of badgers as well as cattle, and it’s certainly not humane to badgers to allow TB to remain endemic in the wildlife population. So, taking out the infected badgers is good for badgers in general in the longer term. It’s certainly not humane to have an ineffective policy that leads to the infection of cattle, nor is it humane to allow badgers to infect other badgers. I think, in this respect also, it’s important to recognise that, whatever the merits of vaccination, it isn’t a cure for TB, because it doesn’t actually deal with the problem in an infected badger. It merely makes it more difficult for those badgers to be vectors for others.I didn’t agree with what she said in answer to one of the questions earlier on about how there’s not really a full understanding of how the disease is transmitted from animal to animal, as though there were some doubt about the transmission mechanism from wildlife. Simon Thomas said that this disease is endemic in the soil in certain areas. Well, if it’s endemic in the soil, it’s only because of the faeces and urine of badgers and other wild animals or cattle that are affected. So, taking out the infected wildlife is going to make a significant difference to the existence of this disease.The experience in Ireland is particularly instructive, I think, in this respect. There’s been a 50 per cent plus reduction in TB since Ireland started a culling programme. Therefore, I think it’s very important—and taking the words in the statement at their face value—that this is now something that the Cabinet Secretary is prepared to consider. This statement is very much to be welcomed. Again, if we look at the experience in New Zealand, that also is particularly instructive, not because of badgers but because of the equivalent in New Zealand, which is possums. In 1990 in New Zealand they had seven times the infection rate in the UK, by 1997 it was roughly equal, and, in 2011, the infection rate in New Zealand was 40 times less than in the UK, so control of possums has gone hand in hand with the control of TB. So, I think that we can welcome the chink of light that we see in the statement through the regionalisation of the policy. And, in areas of high infection, if it is going to be a reality that we may try culling as a mechanism to reduce the infection rates, then that is very much to be welcomed.We heard from the Cabinet Secretary for finance earlier on about the problems that we’re going to be facing in the years ahead about finding the money for all sorts of things that we want to spend money on. The vaccination programme has been—I’m sure the Cabinet Secretary will agree—a very expensive way of attempting to deal with TB. We know that, in 2015, £922,000 was spent to vaccinate 1,118 badgers. That’s an average of £825 per badger. I wonder if the Cabinet Secretary will agree with me that, in value for money terms, that isn’t very, very good, and therefore, culling is likely to be not only an effective means of controlling disease, but also one that gives us best value for money.

Lesley Griffiths AC: I absolutely don’t agree with that. I don’t think you can compare vaccination and culling at all. In relation to your comments around Northern Ireland, as I’ve said, I think—certainly looking at what they have been doing—it has had a very positive impact on the badger population also, and I’m very concerned about the health and welfare, of course, of badgers too. I’m not pre-empting what will be in the bespoke action plans, but what we are saying is that it’s really important that the vets, the farmers and the APHA get together to get these action plans, particularly for these chronic herd breakdowns. I mentioned that the 10 longest herd breakdowns that we have, together—106 years they have been under restrictions. To me, that’s not sustainable, and I don’t think it’s acceptable either. In relation to infection from cattle to cattle or cattle to badger, there is a lot more that we need to learn. Again, I’ve asked my officials to work with the APHA and with vets and individual farmers around this. We held a workshop, I think it was on 10 October, where badger ecologists and experts in cattle husbandry systems—and also grassland management, because I think that’s very important too—met to discuss the options for minimising the risk of contact, both direct and indirect, between the two species. I think that what’s really important—and I mentioned it before—is that farmers know the level and the areas of badger activity on their farms for them to be then able to take precautions to prevent that contact. So, for instance, we’ve had analysis or research that’s shown that badgers visit farm buildings where they get their bedding from or where there is a whole crop of silage, for instance. So, I think it’s really important that that sort of information is known, and sometimes it’s not known, and sometimes it’s inaccurate. So, I think that’s an area where farmers can also help in this eradication that we want to see of TB.

Vikki Howells AC: From my meetings with stakeholders, including groups of farmers in my constituency, kindly organised by the FUW and the NFU, but also meetings that I’ve held with animal welfare organisations, I know that the adoption of a balanced and bespoke approach to tackling bovine TB, outlined in the Cabinet Secretary’s statement, will be of reassurance to them. We know that 95 per cent of infection is estimated to be cattle to cattle. So, the Welsh Government’s focus on strengthened cattle controls is indeed the correct one.I have two questions. Research recently published by Professor Rosie Woodroffe of the Zoological Society of London in August suggested that contamination passes through infected pasture and dung. This has repercussions for farming practices like slurry spreading. What assessment has the Welsh Government given to this evidence in determining its approach? Secondly, Ministry of Agriculture, Fisheries and Food data collected over a 25-year period suggested that some types of animal, including fallow deer and farm cats, had a higher prevalence of TB than badgers. How will the Welsh Government consider these possible reservoirs of the disease in its approach?

Lesley Griffiths AC: Thank you. I was very pleased that Vikki Howells undertook visits arranged by the two farming unions. I think it's really important, and certainly since I came into post, that's been my message to the farming unions: that we should encourage as many Members as possible to visit farms and learn more about the sector.In relation to your two specific questions, officials are currently assessing Rosie Woodroffe’s analysis to help us go forward. I said, as soon as I came into post, and because of the framework coming to an end from 2012, that it was really important to refresh the programme. So, I promised to go out with a refreshed programme to consultation in the autumn, but that's currently being assessed at the moment.Whilst I accept that there could be reservoirs of disease in other wildlife groups, I think it is widely accepted and recognised that it is more prevalent in badgers.

We are already out of time for this statement, and it is a substantial and detailed statement by the Cabinet Secretary, so if I could ask for brief questions from Assembly Members, then I will try to call a few additional Assembly Members so that they have an opportunity to ask their questions. Llyr Gruffydd.

Llyr Gruffydd AC: Thank you, Lywydd, and thank you, Minister, for the statement. May I declare an interest, as my wife is a partner in a farm business?I give a cautious welcome to the statement as it was delivered today. I think it does move us in the right direction, but, of course, time will tell, because what we have is a consultation document, or what is being published by the Government today, rather than the final strategy. I warmly welcome the fact that the Government is moving to a more regionalised model. I am certainly one of a number of people who have long called for a move to a situation where the response corresponds to the risk level, and I think that’s a positive development. A number of farmers will have holdings, of course, in more than one area, and I’m sure that you have given that some thought, but perhaps you could explain briefly what practical difference they will see. We also hope, of course, as the status of the disease changes in certain areas, we will need to downgrade and not, we hope, raise the status of those areas. Do you have a process in mind for that, or perhaps a process to change the boundaries where there are pockets of improvement or deterioration?Vaccination continues to be a feature—

One question. One question, if you would.

Llyr Gruffydd AC: Okay. Well, vaccination is clearly a characteristic of the strategy, but we still don’t know when that vaccine will be available, so that suggests that there will be a gap in the meantime. So, how do you intend to deal with that gap? I certainly welcome the suggestion that there will be an element of a badger cull, and I would urge anyone responding to this statement in the public consultation to make it quite clear that that is the right direction of travel, and I do hope that this Government will have the backbone to take action on that at the end of the day.

Lesley Griffiths AC: I haven't said at all that there will be a badger cull. I mean, please, I have not said that. What I have said is that I want to see bespoke action plans. I think it's really important that we look at pilots from other countries, but I think it's really important that when we have those bespoke action plans, which I think are very needed, particularly with the chronic heard breakdowns, because it is unacceptable that we have these, as I say, these 10 breakdowns that have been under restrictions for 106 years—. It's just not sustainable, and we have to find a way of dealing with that.I welcome the fact that you are pleased that we're going to regionalisation. I, too, think that that is absolutely the right thing to do, and I think I've answered your questions in my previous answer to Paul Davies in relation to regionalisation.In response to your question about vaccination, as I say, we don't know when there is going to be the supply of vaccine that we were having from Denmark. There have been discussions with DEFRA, and we've been working with DEFRA to try and find other suppliers. There doesn't seem too much appetite at the moment from DEFRA to look for it, so I've spoken to the chief veterinary officer, who, obviously, meets with her counterparts and also with DEFRA, to say that we will continue to look for that, because I do think that, whilst it is only one part of our programme, it's a very important part of our programme.

Joyce Watson AC: I will be brief, Cabinet Secretary. I thank you for your statement, but in my contribution to the recent individual Member's debate, I did urge you to stick with the science, and that is exactly going to be my call now. I believe that it is sticking with the science that was the basis, and the strength, of the current bovine TB eradication programme, and I will urge you to carry on in that way. I do welcome the fact that you’re going out to consultation, but I do ask you to ensure that it is framed and appraised in such a way that separates the evidence from the emotive, and the facts from opinions. We’ve heard those opinions being expressed here again today, and they’re not actually backed up by fact.

Lesley Griffiths AC: I actually prefer evidence-based approaches, which I think is the same as science. Of course we use science, but I think it’s really important that we do maintain that evidence-based approach. I think it’s really important we go out to consultation. I would urge Members to submit responses—anybody that’s affected by bovine TB. I’m expecting a significant number of responses to the consultation, and I’m very pleased that you welcome that.

David Melding AC: Minister, I think key here is how we tackle TB in the wildlife reservoir, and I have to say, listening to you, I’m glad that you want to eradicate TB. That is your aim, and that is absolutely appropriate, given the consequences, post Brexit, where we could find that various countries will use this as an excuse not to take our beef. But you’ve now said that you do not see a vaccine being available in the near future, and you don’t have a policy about what you’re going to do regarding badgers, which are the main vector in terms of the wildlife population. So, I do urge you to come up with a policy that does address what we do with the wildlife reservoir as soon as possible. I agree that we should rely on the science, and perhaps you could start with the British Veterinary Association, and their latest report on humane killing of diseased badgers. It should be controlled. It’s a horrible thing to talk about, but unfortunately, we probably need to do some of it.

Lesley Griffiths AC: I’ve read a great deal of different reports. I had a new report on my desk last week from somebody who’d undertaken a Nuffield scholarship. I’m constantly reading about it, and believe me, we do have a policy. I think I’ve outlined our policy. I’ve also mentioned about trade. It’s not just Wales that has bovine TB. I think it’s really important that we understand that. Of course, the reason for doing this, alongside many other measures, is to ensure that our reputation for absolutely the highest animal health and welfare standards remains a priority.

Mark Reckless AC: I’m grateful to the Cabinet Secretary for the statement and the substance in it. You’ve already heard, I think, from three members of the Climate Change, Environment and Rural Affairs Committee, and I think Members have determined we would like to do at least a short inquiry on this—likely to be on the full day, Thursday 10 November—and I would like to ask if you’d be available to attend that session, or if that date didn’t work, would come in to see us for perhaps an opportunity for a bit more sustained questioning one day either side of that. Obviously, we appreciate you won’t want to prejudge the consultation, but there does seem more substance for us to get into following your statement today. I very strongly support your evidence-based approach and what you say on that. I wonder whether you feel the evidence is changing. You did mention the Northern Ireland study and the approach being taken there. Is there any reason to think that arguments for badger culls of one description or another—and I appreciate the English example is less good—that the argument for that has become stronger? I myself voted against the Gloucestershire and Somerset cull in another place, but that was on the understanding that a vaccine was going to be available in the nearer term. Do you think there’s been a change in the scientific evidence we need to react to? Could I also just ask: you say that you rule out an English-style cull, with farmers themselves shooting affected and unaffected badgers; is your objection to the farmers themselves doing it, to the shooting or to the indiscriminate nature of affected as well as unaffected badgers? Is it all three, or is there a particular one of those that is of most concern to you? Thank you.

Lesley Griffiths AC: I’m very happy, as always, to be scrutinised by the Member’s committee, and certainly, if you write in requesting that date, I’ll be very happy to come if I’m available. If not, as you say, we’ll look for another date. I know you have asked the chief veterinary officer to give evidence already, but of course I would be very happy to come to be scrutinised. Is the evidence changing? I suppose over the years, of course, evidence changes. The last time I looked at this in great detail was when I first came as a Member here, back in 2007. Nine years on, I probably think, yes, the evidence will have changed, maybe not hugely, but there will be pockets of evidence that will need to be looked at in great detail. What are my objections to the England cull? I think it’s the indiscriminate nature. It’s not for me to defend a policy that comes from DEFRA in relation to the badger cull, that’s a matter for Ministers there. I do monitor it. I do keep abreast of developments, but it’s not for me to defend them. Certainly, when I’ve asked farmers—. And I have to say, most farmers in Wales would not want to see that type of cull. The ones that have, I’ve asked them how they would want to deal with it—would they want to deal with it themselves like happens in England—and I can’t think of anyone that said yes. They would want us to do it for them. So, I think even the farmers recognise that’s not the most appropriate way.

Huw Irranca-Davies AC: Can I welcome the balance in the statement and also the evidence in the consultation that I’ve read as well? It is based on good evidence and is a sound way forward. Can I commend the Cabinet Secretary for not avoiding the difficult questions? There are some tricky areas in this: issues around compensation and penalties; issues around increased testing and more accurate testing, which will lead to more incidents of finding animals that are infected and disposing of them; and rapid removal of reactors. I particularly welcome the move towards consulting on regionalised areas, but perhaps I could ask the Cabinet Secretary, would it be the intention, then, as was done in Australia, that those wouldn’t be fixed for ever and a day as those areas, but actually, as individual farms or those on the periphery of those areas moved from high to intermediate, you could actually shrink those areas back, thereby delivering an incentive for those farmers in areas of high infection or intermediate areas to actually work their way out of it with an incentive? But, I do welcome this approach.Perhaps I could ask as well, in addition to that question of a shrink in the areas and taking farms out of those regions, if this approach was to go forward, would she make available the chief veterinary officer to those Assembly Members, not only committee members of the environment committee, but others who have an interest in this, to discuss this approach in more detail? In looking at Northern Ireland and perhaps other areas where there are different approaches to tackling the wildlife reservoir, as it is called, of infection, will she also make sure that she does discuss this approach with leading scientists and ecologists, as well as epidemiologists, to make sure that we do not inadvertently end up with negative, perverse consequences of taking an approach that could indeed actually spread the infection in the wildlife reservoir? The best intentions can sometimes lead us into very bad actions on the ground. So, let’s do it on the evidence, as everybody here today has said.

Lesley Griffiths AC: I thank the Member for his very positive comments. Absolutely, it’s really important, if we have that evidence-based approach, that we listen to, as you say, not just ecologists, not just scientists, but absolutely everybody who has those good ideas. As my colleague, Ken Skates, said before, I’m not the keeper of the only good ideas. No one person can eradicate TB on their own. It’s absolutely vital we all work together. In response to your question regarding the chief veterinary officer, yes, absolutely, I will make Professor Glossop available to any Assembly Member who wants to meet with her. I know she met with opposition spokespeople today. I should have probably said that, actually, Presiding Officer—yes, if anybody wants a briefing from the CVO, she would be very happy to do that. I probably should clarify for you: we’re not consulting on the regionalisation. That will happen. That’s part of the refresh going forward. I mentioned that I think—if the measures that we are consulting upon, along with the other measures that are in the statement—for instance, I think north-west Wales could become TB free in the criteria that is there, and what a positive message that would send out. As I say, we’re completely able to do that within EU legislation. I just think it would be great if we could get that done in the first place and look at the intermediate, move those down, and the high as well, because we do want to see a TB-free Wales.

Finally, Dafydd Elis-Thomas.

Dafydd Elis-Thomas AC: I thank the Minister for her statement and particularly thank her for understanding the possibilities that we have of cleaning up the north-west and north Clwyd as a significant step forward. Would she agree that it’s important that this ambition should lead the regional board in that area, with all the scientific support that is necessary? One further question: at the end of the process, after the consultation and once international scientific evidence has been gathered, would it be a good idea for her to arrange a debate in this Assembly before we proceed any further, so that we can establish that there is unanimity in the kind of moves that she is trying to lead in this area, with the whole emphasis being on balance between the various methods?

Lesley Griffiths AC: I thank Dafydd Elis-Thomas for, again, his positive comments and questions. Yes, I’m very happy to look at the border. As I said, we need to look at the governance, if we’re changing the regions from what we have now—for a variety of reasons, I think, we need to do that. I think, on the issue you raised about the evidence and the science that we get in, along with the responses to the consultation, I think it’s really important, as much as possible, we make that available. As I said, the chief veterinary officer is there to advise and help Members. TB is a very complex disease, and I think everyone in the Chamber shares the ambition to see a TB-free Wales.

I thank the Cabinet Secretary.

7. 6. Statement: The Future of Bus Services in Wales

The next item is the statement by the Cabinet Secretary for Economy and Infrastructure on the future of bus services in Wales, and I call on the Cabinet Secretary, Ken Skates.

Ken Skates AC: Diolch, Lywydd. On 20 September, the First Minister published our programme for government for the next five years, giving our commitment to continuing to build a united and connected society. To help realise this ambition, we have committed to the delivery of a multimodal integrated transport system for the whole of Wales, including the south and north Wales metros, which will act as the blueprint for integrated systems across Wales. Fundamental to our ambition will be the delivery of a more effective network of bus services. Local scheduled bus services are, and will continue to be, the foundation of our public transport system. It is a fact that more people in Wales use buses as a public transport alternative to the private motor vehicle for their daily commute to work and for leisure, and although we have witnessed a downward trend in the number of passenger journeys made on local bus services over the past decade, buses continue to account for more than 101 million passenger journeys each year. This is significantly more than the number of journeys undertaken on our rail network. So our long-term commitment to deliver a more effective network of buses is absolute, as is our commitment to support the bus industry in the short term. Last month, I announced a five-point plan to support the bus industry in Wales and, today, I want to provide Members with the opportunity to discuss the plan and consider how we might develop local bus services as part of the integrated public transport system that is fit for a modern and connected Wales. Like many Members in this Chamber, I’ve been surprised and saddened by the recent and sudden demise of three local bus companies serving some of our more rural communities, not only for the impact these closures have had on the people working for these companies, but the impact on the people living in the communities served by them. The loss of these vital services, enabling people to get to work, to hospital appointments and to education, brings into stark focus the reality of the fragility of our bus network. Under the five-point plan I announced last month, I’ll be offering all bus companies in Wales dedicated professional assistance through Business Wales and Finance Wales, and will call on local authorities to make every effort to protect their funding for bus services in the current challenging economic climate. Whereas larger operators have teams of business advisers and access to highly qualified staff, many smaller operators may be family concerns that are run without those advantages. I want to ensure that these smaller bus companies have access to the advice and support that will help them become better and more resilient businesses. We will work proactively with local authorities to identify, at the earliest opportunity, potentially vulnerable bus services. Where these are identified, we will put a local strategy in place to respond to any planned withdrawal of services considered vital to the sustainability and well-being of the local community. I will be meeting leaders of the local authorities in Cardiff and Newport, together with the managing directors of their municipal bus companies, to gather intelligence on how sustainable bus networks can be operated whilst maintaining the social dividend by investing in service improvements. I will also work with the Confederation of Passenger Transport to combine the best characteristics of the private commercial sector with the social responsibility of the public sector operators in Wales. I have agreed to fund new bus co-ordinator posts, one in north Wales and one in south Wales, to bring together the various strands of policy and investment to develop the statutory bus quality partnership model. I am keen to see more formal agreements between local authorities and bus operators, preferably through these statutory bus quality partnership schemes.Finally, as part of this plan, I have agreed to hold a bus services summit in early 2017. The summit will bring together local authorities, bus operators, groups representing passengers and disabled people together with the Community Transport Association and other partners to consider how best bus services that are financially viable and sustainable in the longer term can be delivered. Whilst this action plan has been needed to deal with the very real threats posed to our local bus services in the short term, the summit will offer an opportunity to focus on the future, rather than on the past. I am convinced that a collaborative and creative approach to ensure a quality, equitable and sustainable bus network that serves communities whilst delivering value for money for the taxpayer is very much needed. Together, we need to define what we want our bus services to deliver as part of an integrated public transport system and then design a framework that can deliver these quality services. So, the timing of the summit could not be better, coming at a time when the improved devolved settlement offered through the Wales Bill will be coming into effect. The new settlement will enable us to put into place a framework for bus services that can deliver the improved network quality, frequency, reliability and punctuality that all of us in this Chamber want to see in place. The publication of the voluntary Welsh bus quality standards in March this year, setting out clearly, for the first time, the quality standards that we want to see in place for local bus services, is a good starting point. It is important that passengers can have confidence that the quality of local bus services will be universally applied to local scheduled bus services across the whole of Wales. The quality of service delivered in the more rural parts of Wales should be no less favourable than those provided within the metro or more urbanised parts of the country. I also welcome the Department for Transport’s proposals, as part of the Bus Services Bill, to amend the Equality Act 2010 to require bus operators across Great Britain to provide disabled passengers with accessible information on board vehicles. Since 2013, we have supported the introduction of next-stop audio-visual announcement systems on buses to improve the accessibility to bus services for the blind and people with sight loss. We have encouraged bus operators to install these systems on board their vehicles as part of our Welsh bus quality standards and I look forward to working with ministerial colleagues in England and Scotland to ensure that quality accessible passenger information is universally available across Great Britain. The introduction of these systems, taken together with improved service quality, such as the continuing development of the TrawsCymru bus service, delivering improved longer-distance connectivity where rail services are limited or do not exist, demonstrates how the spiral of declining bus service patronage can be reversed, offering people a real alternative for meeting their transport needs. So, in looking to the future, we must be realistic. Delivering scheduled local bus services that are financially viable and sustainable in the longer term to every community in Wales may not be realistic, achievable or affordable. But I am not prepared to abandon more isolated communities to a life that is dependant wholly on the private motor car. That is simply not acceptable. So, at the summit, I will be calling on our partners, the bus industry and our local authority partners, to explore solutions to meet the transport needs of all our communities. We need an integrated transport and ticketing system comprising a mix of quality demand responsive transport services that interface far more effectively with local scheduled bus services and longer-distance services provided by our TrawsCymru network and rail franchise.This is a challenge that we in Welsh Government, together with local authorities and the bus and community transport sectors, must address. Together, I am confident that we can deliver a quality, equitable and sustainable bus network that provides communities and individuals across Wales with the services they need and which they deserve.

Russell George AC: I very much welcome, Cabinet Secretary, your statement today. It’s a very positive statement, and I’m impressed with what you’ve said today.I do have a number of questions. Firstly, I would be grateful if you could outline the funding attached to the commitments made today, and whether you have considered a multi-year funding agreement to provide certainty for operators to plan and invest in their services, rather than on a year-by-year basis? Cabinet Secretary, you’ve said that significantly more people in Wales use buses compared with journeys undertaken on our rail network. So, with that in mind, there is an issue of imbalance between public funding spent on the rail network and on the bus network. So, I wonder if you have got views on that balance, and whether you think that needs to be addressed. I have to say, I think I was very impressed with the point you made that you’re not prepared to abandon more isolated communities to a life that is dependent wholly on the motor car, and that this is simply not acceptable. Of course, that is particularly relevant to rural communities across Wales. Cuts to the bus service operators grant have meant that some routes have been discontinued. Certainly, it’s my view that the bus operators grant is vital in ensuring that communities have regular bus services, especially in those rural isolated areas that you mentioned. So, can I ask whether you have considered restoring full funding for this grant to provide local authorities and bus operators with the confidence to sustain and reinstate previously unviable bus routes? There’s also still a cultural perception that buses are not viable modes of transport for all. So, I would be grateful if you could outline how the Welsh Government intends to help encourage the change in perception, and prioritise measures that will incentivise more people to make the change from private transport to buses, through measures such as smart ticketing, which, of course, makes travel more convenient and flexible. The bus industry in Wales has made no secret, certainly to me when I met with representatives over the summer, of the fact that a true partnership between operators, Welsh Government and local authorities is necessary. Therefore, can I ask what progress has been made by the Welsh Government in implementing recommendations from your bus policy advisory group, which has previously recommended that network partnerships should be established? Further to this, Cabinet Secretary, you will be aware that the UK Government has proposed a buses Bill, which is intended to strengthen arrangements for partnership working in the sector. Your predecessor previously noted that there are a number of significant limitations to the Assembly’s current powers to introduce similar legislation in Wales. Would you be able to expand on this? Can I also ask what intentions does the Government have to extend the concessionary fares scheme to younger carers who carry out an important role in Welsh society, and who currently miss out on vital transport links to further education? And finally, I was pleased to hear you mention ‘integrated’ on a number of occasions throughout your statement. The lack of integration between bus and train timetables has been an issue that does require major improvements. You’ll be aware that I’ve mentioned to you an issue in my own constituency, in Caersws, where the bus arrives one minute after the train, or vice versa. So, I would be grateful for more information on what you intend to do to ensure an integrated transport system, and avoid these timetable issues.

Ken Skates AC: I’d like to thank Russell George for his questions, and also for welcoming the five-point plan. This is a plan that’s been devised with partners in local government and within the industry itself. It contains a number of actions that will shore up the industry in the short term as we look at the long-term opportunities presented through the transfer of powers in the Wales Bill. In terms of funding, the Welsh Government has maintained the bus services support grant now for a number of years, and we’re pleased to be able to maintain it at £25 million again next year. The challenge for local government is to ensure that they do not cut the availability of resources within their own authorities to support, in particular, rural routes that are not commercially viable.We do also provide capital funding that amounts to approximately £15 million. In terms of concessionary travel, of course, we provide opportunities for hundreds of thousands of people to travel without charge. There is, without a doubt, a need to use integrated ticketing—until we have the powers that will come through the Wales Bill—to drive integrated transport. We know, through experiences across Wales so far, that integrated ticketing can be a challenge for many bus service operators, but it is not an insurmountable one. In terms of opportunities, moving forward, for integrated ticketing, the Competition and Markets Authority wrote to all local authorities about competition, co-operation and partnership working in local bus markets, and reiterated its support for well-designed multi-operated ticketing schemes. The Bus Services Bill, which I think the Member raised as well, is predominantly relevant only to England, but it does include an interesting provision that would allow local authorities to require bus operators to market and advertise multi-operated tickets clearly and consistently. It’s my view that, with the availability of multi-operator ticketing, we will see, as a consequence, a more integrated approach to bus service provision. That said, with the Wales Bill, we will have powers that will enable the regulation of local bus services brought into the competence of the National Assembly. Together with our existing legislative competence, we’ll be able to introduce a framework for bus services that will enable a far improved service network, greater quality, more regular bus services and greater reliability and punctuality. That said, until we have those powers and we’re able to design the framework, there are also the voluntary quality bus standards, which can be used in particular to challenge perceptions. I know that what the Member raised about the widespread views of bus transport are held by many and are a barrier to many accessing bus services. In terms of the voluntary Welsh bus quality standard, there are a number of points that need to be achieved in the standard for bus companies to satisfactorily qualify. They include the operation of vehicles that are compliant with the public service vehicle accessibility regulations, and ensuring that vehicles have working destination blinds that are clearly visible, telling passengers about the destination and key stopping points along the routes. Buses need to be clean inside and out, and ready for the first service each day. Drivers must have a uniform—it seems basic stuff, but it’s the sort of provision that ensures that people actually respect the bus service as being of a high quality. They must also have a published passenger complaints policy, and larger bus companies will be expected to operate all-year visual next-bus-stop announcements on newer buses. I think that the provisions within these voluntary standards are challenging perceptions, but there is a need, I believe, for the industry to do more collectively, in particular, to appeal to younger passengers. The Member raised the question of whether younger carers could be offered concessionary fares. Where a younger carer falls through the gap of the concessionary fare system at present, I’d be more than willing to consider offering opportunities for them to travel at a reduced or free rate. There would, of course, be a need to ensure that the system is operating fairly, not least given the legal cases concerning fraud in north Wales that have contributed to a reduction in the number of passenger journeys on the bus network. But I would not be averse to considering any opportunities that need to be presented for carers to be able to access employment opportunities, education, or indeed to travel to and from the places of care.

Dai Lloyd AC: Thank you to the Cabinet Secretary for the Economy and Infrastructure for his comprehensive statement—comprehensive in terms of the answers and comprehensive in terms of that questions that have been asked, so I won’t rehearse anything that has already been mentioned, but just to emphasise that the bus service is vital, especially for that cohort of our population that is increasingly becoming older, but is still fit and healthy, but doesn’t feel confident enough to drive a car. Well, this is the way that they go around. They are dependent on the bus routes that already exist offering services that are prompt—that you can depend on them turning up and similar issues.To begin, I’ll look at the local side of things. Of course, bus services were deregulated several years ago, perhaps even before the Cabinet Secretary was born. But the business of having a private service was meant to improve the standard of the service and to improve the provision of the bus service. Perhaps that was true in some examples, but it was not true in all places, as we’ve already heard. From my days as a county councillor in Swansea, I was aware that, as a local authority, the private bus companies received a great deal of funding, but when people wanted a service to continue in a particular area, then the business elements were prioritised, not the fact that the bus companies were receiving a great deal of public funding to provide a service, yet they could stop that service when it suited them. I do believe that there’s still an element of that. You talked a lot about the role of local authorities in this regard. They have funding and some local authorities provide funding. Some, I believe, don’t provide any funding at all to bus services—you’ve already stated that.I have particular interest in these developments when you go to meetings with Cardiff and Newport about sustainable bus networks, that is, to get to grips with this question that there are some services, even in the heart of our larger cities, that don’t pay their way and are in danger of being stopped perhaps. So, I’d like to know a little bit more about the sustainable bus networks and perhaps developing them for areas such as Swansea. And the second point, and I am aware that time is against us, Presiding Officer, but we’ve talked a lot about the need to improve links between north and south Wales in the context of the roads and also railways, but the same is true about the bus links. As I’ve already said, there are a great many people who like to live their lives dependent on the bus. That’s possible, especially with the free bus travel that is increasingly available for people who are perhaps older, but who are still fit and want to travel around Wales. In that regard, interest has been expressed in the bus service between Aberystwyth and Cardiff, which was lost recently because the Lloyds Coaches company finished its operation. There’s no link there, despite the popular family name. Of course, I am aware that the Cabinet Secretary has confirmed with Elin Jones AM, the local Member, that there would be a new service in place by the end of October. Naturally, we are talking about links between south and north Wales and north and south Wales that are vitally important to unite our nation. But in terms of that specific service between Aberystwyth and Cardiff, can you give an update on when we can expect to see that excellent bus service once again running and joining up our nation—a service that is so vitally important to us as a nation? Thank you very much.

Ken Skates AC: Can I thank Dai Lloyd for his question and also for making enquiries regarding the important service between Aberystwyth and Cardiff, along with other Members, including the Presiding Officer? This is an essential service and its loss was severely regretted. I’m pleased to be able to say that alternative arrangements for this particular bus service are now at an advanced stage, and we anticipate being in a position to make an announcement on the detail of this service within days. It’s absolutely essential that people in rural parts of Wales are able to enjoy bus services, not least because they are social spaces. Unlike other modes of travel, they offer people who are often socially isolated a means of interacting with people. When the services are lost, that opportunity is lost with it. I know, in my own experience of representing a constituency where a bus operator folded recently—GHA Coaches—when that happened, it was the elderly who were most affected, who rely on that service, and young people, often young people who are socially isolated and who greatly rely on bus services in order to access a place of employment or learning. So, rural services, as the Member identified, are absolutely vital. I’d agree that, in many respects, deregulation in the mid-1980s has failed, but I also, like the Member, wish to know more about how some services in Wales appear to be far more sustainable than others. There are examples—and I identified them in my statement—within the south-east of Wales, where there are particularly sustainable services that we can look to and learn from. I’ll be meeting with council representatives and bus operator representatives to ascertain precisely what it is that they do differently that enables them to operate in a more sustainable way, and I’ll be happy to share any experience that I gain from that, and any insight that I gain with other Members. Of course, I’ll also be sharing that information with bus operators and local authorities across Wales.It appears to me that there is a considerable difference between some local authorities in terms of the provision for bus services that are not commercially viable, and the Member mentioned that he’s aware of some local authorities that have simply stopped funding those non-commercial routes. I am also aware of some local authorities that have done that. Others have been more responsible in ensuring that there is support available. Again, in the case of GHA Coaches, what that brought to light was that one local authority—Flintshire County Council—had maintained support to the tune of something in the region of £1.3 million for non-commercial services, whereas, in contrast, next door in Wrexham I believe the budget had been reduced to zero. That then places pressures on those services that cross local authority borders because you have one local authority that has albeit a very limited degree of resource available, but another that simply doesn’t. So, it’s very important that, at the bus summit in the new year, local authorities are able to learn and to contribute as much as the bus service operators themselves.I believe that covers all the questions that the Member asked.

David J Rowlands AC: I thank the Cabinet Secretary for his statement—as usual, succinct and enlightening—but does he not agree with me that the critical element in the operation and effectiveness of bus services is, of course, connectivity with the rail infrastructure? So, can the Cabinet Secretary tell me what efforts are being made to synchronise bus and rail timetables? The question was prompted when one of my colleagues’ constituents pointed out the fact that the bus service to Cardigan leaves 10 minutes before the Great Western train arrives at Carmarthen, often resulting in a two-hour wait for onward travellers. Surely it is incumbent upon bus companies to schedule services to best serve their customers, thus facilitating a more integrated transport system. Will the Cabinet Secretary comment on this, please?

Ken Skates AC: Can I thank the Member for his kind words and questions? In the fourth Assembly I recall, when I was on the back benches and a member of the enterprise committee, the question of integrated ticketing and integrated travel occupied a considerable amount of our time. I know that it created a good degree of frustration amongst Members. Much of that frustration still exists, but we are now at the point in time where there is an enormous opportunity, both in terms of bus services and rail, to integrate them more fully through the new Wales and borders franchise and, of course, the provisions contained within the Wales Bill. I would hope, between those two processes, alongside the encouragement and development of more integrated ticketing that, in turn, can drive bus operators to act in a more integrated way, insofar as timetables are concerned, that by the end of this Assembly that degree of frustration that backbench Members expressed previously will not be there.

Julie Morgan AC: I welcome the five points that the Cabinet Secretary has made, and I welcome the importance that he’s giving to buses, which are obviously a vital part of our transport system. The first point that I wanted to make, really, was about the importance of buses to young people. This has already been alluded to in the debate so far, but I think that it is absolutely vital that we do take on the views of young people when we are planning transport. I’m delighted he’s going to have a summit early in the new year. Can he ensure that young people are present at that summit? We don’t have a youth parliament yet, but there must be ways of getting young people—representative groups of young people—so that they can take part in the debate and say what is important to them about transport. Because I think it is an absolute fact that 64 per cent of people who are seeking jobs have no access to a vehicle or can’t drive. So, it is absolutely vital for young people—who, of course, are not the only people seeking jobs, but a large number are—that they have got access and are able, actually, to get to job interviews. So, I think a role for young people is the first thing I want to mention. The second thing is congestion. I’m sure people are deterred from travelling on buses because of the congestion and the slowness, sometimes, of travelling on buses. Certainly, I’ve got an almost totally urban constituency, where there is often deadlock of traffic. So, would he commend Cardiff Council on their efforts in bringing in bus lanes and, in particular, introducing the bus lane on Caerphilly Road? It has been hugely controversial and has been dreadfully disruptive to all the neighbours, but I think, in the long term, it will certainly move things along. Then interchange and connectivity has been mentioned, and it is absolutely fantastic that Cardiff bus station, which my colleague Jenny Rathbone mentioned earlier this afternoon, is actually now being started to be rebuilt. But if there’s anything he can do to encourage Network Rail to do their bit of the bargain and make sure that at least people travelling from the bus station to the train station will be able to go under cover, I think that would be very worth while doing.He’s mentioned disabled people. I really welcome what he said about disabled people and making sure that they are included in all the discussions and any future debate. I’d like to end by thanking Bus Users Cymru, who I think do an excellent job. I know that there is a reception tomorrow, I think, which is being hosted by Jane Hutt here. But I think the points that they drew—the fact that 41 per cent of people who’ve contacted them have said they are concerned at the level of service—shows the need and the demand that there is in Wales for this bedrock of the service.

Ken Skates AC: I’d like to thank the Member for her questions and very much endorse what she said, not least about the importance of Bus Users Cymru and of the need for Network Rail to ensure that the upgrades, which are long overdue, to Cardiff railway station are appropriate and ensure that there is a seamless, safe passenger journey from the railway station to the bus station. In terms of congestion on roads, I would very much welcome the developments that have taken place in Cardiff. We could consider them, in many respects, best practice. I recognise that, in many parts of Wales, due to the narrowness of urban roads and streets, it can be difficult to incorporate bus routes into built-up areas. However, where they are possible, I think it’s absolutely essential. In terms of the metro development in south Wales, of course there may be a role for rapid bus transport, which would also see smooth operations of rapid buses within residential and commercial areas. I’m very keen to attract to the summit in the new year young people and also disabled people. I’d be very open to any suggestions that Members have as to where we should seek appropriate people from. And also, with regard to the question posed by Russell George, I’d also be keen to invite along, possibly, young carers to be able to give their own experience of using bus services and some of the frustrations that there may be with the current network. I think that, for young people in particular, there is a need—and I mentioned this earlier—to better market the bus network as an appropriate form of transport. We know that there are something in the region of 113,000 young people who are eligible for mytravelpass, which is the brand name for the young persons’ discounted bus travel scheme—113,000 young people aged 16, 17 and 18. Yet, to date, only 8,000 have applied for that valuable bus pass. Every opportunity—and I think any opportunity—that we get to flag up the existence of the pass we should take. But also I’m very keen that the sector itself should come together more in terms of marketing concessionary travel opportunities to travel seamlessly and to also ensure that there is integrated travel, not just for young people, but for everybody.For young people in particular, there is a need for good quality, regular bus services, because, of course, many don't have the option of being able to drive, given the cost of insuring a private vehicle, but also many older people, as well as many young people—but I know, certainly insofar as my parents are concerned, I think you have a lack of confidence on the roads as a driver as you reach a certain age, and I think it's absolutely essential, therefore, that we maintain rural, as well as urban, services wherever and whenever possible and make them, again, as integrated as possible and ensure that there is the best possible quality of service.

Jenny Rathbone AC: Cabinet Secretary, you mentioned earlier that buses need to be clean, and the most important part of their cleanliness is the clean emissions. So, I just wondered what progress we’re making on that, because I notice that the UK Government has handed out grants of £30 million to 13 local authorities—and none of them was in Wales, as far as I'm aware—to invest in electric or hybrid buses. In Bristol, there's a bus service that has hybrid technology and which automatically switches to electric mode as soon as they get into the air quality management area, and that, for a place like Cardiff, would be really essential to try and combat the appalling air pollution that we've got. I would have thought that this was a major contribution for reducing our greenhouse gases by 40 per cent by 2020. So, I just wondered if you could say a bit about that and whether any of the larger companies that we have in Wales have so far invested in electric travel.

Ken Skates AC: I'd like to thank Jenny Rathbone for her questions. I do believe that research and development in terms of green buses is not just an opportunity for us to lower or reduce our carbon footprint—research and development also offers us a huge economic opportunity, due to the fact that it is still an industry that is in its relative infancy. We still do not see across much of western Europe the sort of numbers of electric and hybrid buses that we will likely see in the next decade, and so there are still opportunities for Welsh companies to become more involved in the development of new forms of passenger transport that do contribute less in terms of our carbon footprint.

The Deputy Presiding Officer took the Chair.

Ken Skates AC: The green bus fund, which was the fund mentioned by the Member, was, of course, open to bus providers and operators in Wales. Regretfully, no Welsh companies were successful in bidding, and no local authorities were successful in bidding. I am personally open to considering, however, a case for establishing a green bus fund in Wales, but within, of course, I have to say, a context of competing authorities and budgetary constraints, but I do recognise the need to reduce our carbon footprint and the role that public transport—greener public transport—can have in achieving this. Therefore, I am open to considering a case for a green bus fund in Wales.I believe our bus policy advisory group, though, suggested that what they called a ‘better bus fund’, rather than a narrow green bus fund, would be most appropriate. So, there are, to some degree, conflicting beliefs about what would be a better way, or what sort of fund and the criteria for qualifying for capital resources are best for the economy and for passenger users, but it's very much something that I intend speaking with companies about at the summit in 2017.

Thank you very much, Cabinet Secretary.

8. 7. The Welsh Language Commissioner's Annual Report 2015-16

The following amendments have been selected: amendments 1, 2 and 3 in the name of Rhun ap Iorwerth.

We move on now to the next item on the agenda, which is the debate on the Welsh Language Commissioner's annual report for 2015-16, and I call on the Minister for Lifelong Learning and Welsh Language to move the motion—Alun Davies.

Motion NDM6117 Jane HuttTo propose that the National Assembly for Wales:Acknowledges the Welsh Language Commissioner's Annual Report for 2015-16, which details the work undertaken by the Commissioner to promote and facilitate the use of the Welsh language.

Motion moved.

Alun Davies AC: Thank you very much, Deputy Presiding Officer. It's a pleasure to lead this discussion this afternoon on the commissioner's annual report. I want to start, of course, by thanking Meri and her team for the very hard work that they’ve done over the past year in leading on this work. Very often, the Welsh Language Commissioner’s role is a thankless one, and I'm very eager that Members this afternoon have the opportunity to discussion the commissioner's work, but also to thank her for the way that she has fulfilled her duties.But we’re very aware that, this time next year, we’ll have a new strategy for 1 million Welsh speakers by 2050, and that will call for an ambitious package of policies and legislation, and the commissioner, of course, will be an important part of whatever emerges over the coming months and years.And I’m very eager that we do consider the commissioner’s report in a very wide-ranging way to look at how she has achieved her work. The commissioner is a very familiar figure for us here, who comes to committee meetings, who is part of discussions on the Welsh language, and she has also responded to complaints by the public to ensure that individuals can demand justice in their use of the Welsh language. All of this work across Wales is vital for all of us who use the Welsh language and speak it.On top of that, the commissioner has published a five-year report, which, amongst other things, reports on the Census results from the point of view of the Welsh language, and we will be considering this report as we devise the new strategy. Of particular interest too is the ‘Time to set the standards’ report, which portrays people’s experiences in using the Welsh language with public institutions,. Very often the picture that we see is something that we all recognise from personal experience and the experience of our families, and I thank the Commissioner for the work that she has done in putting together an image of inconsistent provision across the public sector, which demonstrates why we need the standards.In terms of standards, as we perhaps should have expected when a challenging new regime is established, we know that the feedback has hitherto been mixed. Despite this, in addition to the rights that these standards give us as users, matters such as policy development standards are starting to show their potential. The ethos of workforce planning for the future to ensure that we can meet the demand for the Welsh language and Welsh language services have started to take root.I think we need further discussion with the commissioner about certain issues. For example, there are institutions that say that they need to understand the standards better, and that they need support in getting to grips with some requirements. These are early days, but it’s important that we see the process of creating standards and Welsh language services as something that we work together on.We have introduced four sets of regulations to ensure that standards are applicable to different bodies. The Welsh Government, local authorities and national parks are already compliant with standards, and the commissioner has introduced compliance notices for over 50 other bodies. We’ve just finished consulting on draft regulations for the health sector. I will be considering the responses that we’ve seen before tabling regulations before the Assembly early next year. My intention is to present a written statement to Members over the coming weeks giving a timetable for the introduction of further regulations, and I very much hope that we can have agreement on how we move forward from where we are today.Members will also be aware that, over the coming period, we will also be looking again at the Welsh Language (Wales) Measure 2011 in order improve the legislation that we have. It’s too soon at the moment to give details about what that will mean—whether we’re going to amend the current Measure or create a new language Bill. But one thing that is certain is that the challenge of creating 1 million Welsh speakers and 1 million users of the Welsh language does demand significant change, and that is true in all areas related to the Welsh language. Thoughtful planning is such an important part of the draft strategy, because, through planning, we will ensure that the foundations are laid. So, I want the strategy for the Welsh language to come first and, on the basis of that strategy we will discuss legislating and what kind of legislation we need in future.At present, we are starting to conclude the process of consulting on the strategy that we launched in the Eisteddfod. I am very grateful to everyone who has been part of the discussion process and who has responded to the debate and the consultation. We have set an ambitious target because we want to change the way that we support and promote the Welsh language. I very much hope that every Member in all parts of the Chamber will share the vision that we have and will feel that they can all contribute to the vision in different ways. But, I very much hope that the strategy, when it is published in spring, will be one that does receive support in all parts of the Chamber.Before I conclude my initial comments, Deputy Presiding Officer, I will turn to the amendments that have been tabled in the name of Rhun ap Iorwerth. I will say at the beginning that I and the Government intend to accept all of the amendments and, clearly, we’re very pleased to accept the first amendment with regard to the importance of workforce planning to provide Welsh-medium services. Planning and workforce planning particularly is a central part of the draft strategy and is a central part of the work that we’ve been leading on over the past few weeks and months. It’s true in the area of childcare, it’s true in terms of education, it’s true about bodies that provide services and it’s also true about businesses.That’s why I’m also willing to accept the second amendment, which deals with working with the commissioner to introduce a Welsh language strategy for the workplace. It’s important to remember that several bodies funded by the Government are already operational in this area, including the Coleg Cymraeg Cenedlaethol and the National Centre for Teaching Welsh, which has also noted in its strategic plan that it will be working in partnership with the commissioner to develop a strategy for the Welsh language in the workplace. But, this amendment also talks about promoting people’s rights to receive services through the medium of Welsh. This of course is already one of the commissioner’s functions, but I’m very happy to accept the amendment. In turning to amendment 3, the Welsh Government’s official response to the Welsh language and local government taskforce’s report will be published over the next few weeks. I don’t want to predict what will be in that response that is published, but it is fair to say that the standards that are already placed on local authorities place a statutory duty on them to plan for the workforce in terms of the language and to provide appropriate training in that regard.I have made it clear that I don’t want to make any specific commitments from a legislative point of view, because I want the final strategy to drive the work of developing that. But, I am willing to accept the amendment because it’s part of the wider package of things that we will need to consider to ensure that we can move on in a genuine manner in terms of the Welsh language and the workplace. I hope that the Members will accept that we are willing to accept that amendment but we’re doing that recognising that we will need to discuss how we move on in future.Deputy Presiding Officer, I believe that the report is an important one and a valuable one. I do hope that Members will have comments to make on the report, but I also hope that Members will join me in thanking the commissioner and her team for their work over the past year.

Thank you very much. I have selected the three amendments to the motion. I call on Sian Gwenllian to move amendments 1, 2 and 3, tabled in the name of Rhun ap Iorwerth. Sian.

Amendment 1—Rhun ap IorwerthAdd as new point at end of motion:Notes the importance of workforce planning to provide services through the medium of Welsh as a central aspect to the efforts of government to reach the target of a million Welsh speakers by 2050.

Amendment 2—Rhun ap IorwerthAdd as new point at end of motion:Calls on the Welsh Government to work with the Welsh Language Commissioner to present a national Welsh language strategy in the workplace in order to increase the use of Welsh in the workplace and promote and raise awareness of the right to receive services through the medium of Welsh.

Amendment 3—Rhun ap IorwerthAdd as new point at end of motion:Calls on the Welsh Government to work with the Welsh Language Commissioner to implement recommendation 4 in the report of the Working Group on the Welsh Language and Local Government: Language, work and bilingual services, to place a statutory duty on local authorities, including in their role as local education authorities, to undertake workforce planning in terms of linguistic skills, and to provide suitable training to meet those needs.

Amendments 1, 2 and 3 moved.

Siân Gwenllian AC: Thank you very much and thank you for the opportunity to contribute to this debate in order to discuss the Welsh Language Commissioner’s annual report. I would also like to thank the commissioner and her team for their work during the year. This is a report looking back, and, as important as that is, we were eager to move the debate forward. That is why Plaid Cymru tabled a number of amendments to this motion, based specifically on the need for the Government to take action in terms of workforce planning policy. I am very pleased that you are willing to accept those amendments. It is a clear signal of your commitment in this area. If we are to increase the use of the Welsh language as well as the number of Welsh speakers then we do need to take action in a number of different areas, and education will be a core element, if the Government is to achieve its target of a million Welsh speakers by 2050. The lack of progress in Welsh-medium education is a cause of increasing concern and is an issue that will have to be taken into account when the Government sets specific targets in order to implement and achieve its strategy.The amendments that we’ve tabled today relate to workforce planning in order to ensure that provision is available to offer services through the medium of Welsh, including education. Clearly, we will need to significantly increase the number of teachers and early years practitioners as a starting point to achieve that target of a million Welsh speakers, and there are a number of opportunities that do arise in order to do that—for example, extending free childcare to 30 hours, which would provide an opportunity, reforming teacher training and the Donaldson reforms. These are all opportunities for the Welsh language. Other issues that we could look at are financial incentives and extending the sabbatical scheme for teachers. The other report that you mentioned, ‘Time to set the standard’, by the Welsh Language Commissioner, is another important report, and the commissioner in that report states that institutions need to change gear and to provide public services of a high quality that would enable Welsh speakers to increase their use of the Welsh language in their daily lives. The commissioner does believe that a number of organisations have flatlined in terms of growth in Welsh language services while others have taken significant retrograde steps in providing Welsh language services over the past few years. Indeed, the report that we’re discussing today does note that even the Government has failed to implement some aspects of its own Welsh language policies. In May of last year, a statutory inquiry report on the implementation of the Welsh Government’s Welsh language scheme was published. The inquiry was held on the basis of doubts that the commissioner had in terms of linguistic requirements in recruiting the new Children’s Commissioner for Wales and the consideration given to the Government’s Welsh language scheme in revising the original job specification. The commissioner came to the conclusion that the Government had failed to implement two clauses of its own Welsh language scheme as part of that recruitment exercise, and I’m sure that you would agree with me that, if the leadership is to come from Government, then those issues cannot continue to arise. We have discussed the report of the working group on Welsh language and local government, namely ‘Language, Work and Bilingual Services’, in the Assembly already and some sections of that report do make specific reference to the need for the Government to ensure that there is a statutory duty on local authorities, including in their function as a local education authority, to plan the workforce in terms of linguistic skills and to prepare appropriate training to meet those demands. As you mentioned, we are still awaiting the outcome of the consultation on the recommendations of this working group, but I’m pleased that you have said that this is in the pipeline. Some of the points that Plaid Cymru would want to see the Government taking action on are as follows: we need to provide Welsh language lessons for staff through plans such as Welsh in the workplace; we must include linguistic requirements in recruitment policies; we need to conduct an audit in order to see what the skills gap is, particularly in front-line posts; and we need to plan the workforce in a meaningful way. If the rights of Welsh speakers that are established through the standards are truly to take root, then we must plan the workforce that can provide those services in full. So, this is a report that we welcome, but it does also highlight some of the problems. The problems have been known for some time, and the Government does now need to take action. The information, the policies and the expertise is available in order to achieve success in this area, and the Government must show the desire and the political leadership to implement this. I do know that you, as Minister, are sincere in your commitment to the Welsh language. The small increase in funding for plans to support the Welsh language that has been secured by Plaid Cymru in the budget is a step in the right direction, but in the words of the Welsh Language Commissioner—and I return to what she said—we must see a change of gear. I would add that that has to happen as a matter of urgency. So, I do hope that everyone can support these amendments so that we can concentrate on action. Thank you.

Jeremy Miles AC: May I start by endorsing what the Minister and Sian Gwenllian have said in thanking the commissioner for her work in putting together this report? I welcome the report, and I welcome the opportunity to discuss the report, and I welcome the amendments that have been tabled by Plaid Cymru. The report has been put together from the point of view of the user, that is, the person who requests the service, and that’s one of the strengths of the report in my view—that it sees Welsh-medium services and the provision through the medium of Welsh from the point of the user outwith the institution. I asked the commissioner, when she came to give evidence before the committee last week, whether she was surprised by any of the conclusions or findings in the report, and she said that she wasn’t surprised. But, from reading the report, it’s clear that we do have a long way to go to reach where we want to be. For example, in only 21 per cent of receptions was it possible to use the Welsh language; 37 per cent were offered a service without asking on the phone; looking at websites, 19 per cent of websites promoted the language choice between Welsh and English. She also drew attention to the UK Government website specifically, mentioning that, since they had become under the umbrella of gov.uk, the quality of Welsh language provision had declined significantly. She said that it’s not just been a slowdown, but a galloping backwards in provision stemming from Westminster. So, we do need to look at that in the context of the Wales Bill, and I would ask the Minister to consider this issue and to communicate with the Secretary of State, if it is appropriate to do so, to move the discussion forward and to see what we can do in relation to the Bill.But what’s important, on the basis of this report, is what happens next, and we discussed in the committee the specific steps that are under way to understand the analysis and to take constructive steps on that basis. I understand that general workshops are being undertaken to discuss the findings with the institutions that have been the subject of the report, and institutions more widely, to provide specific feedback and a library of resources to support the bodies and organisations to improve their provision. But I would also see a hand-in-hand working with the organisations. I think there needs to be a revolution, if truth be told, within these institutions to change culture so that the institutions and bodies understand the why and the how so that we can move forward. So, I would like to see a creative look being taken at ways of supporting these institutions to do that, as well as regulation. But if a great leap forward is a needed in terms of culture within these bodies, then there’s also a leap forward needed in terms of increasing demand for the services that we are discussing today. To endorse Sian Gwenllian’s words in mentioning how important the education workforce is, it’s vital to deliver the objectives in the Welsh language strategy, and workforce planning in that regard specifically is also vital. And that’s why the Welsh language strategy is so vital. By increasing the number of Welsh speakers, we’re going to increase demand, and that’s what will ensure, in my view, the transformation in the kind of services that we’re discussing today.

Suzy Davies AC: I would also like to thank the commissioner for her report, and I’d like to start by congratulating her for keeping within her budget, saving money on almost every line in her budget. Her office’s settlement last year was particularly difficult, and this year has been no different. I look forward to the details in the draft budget. We welcome that efficiency, of course, but the fact that the First Minister had to find an additional £150,000 specifically to enforce standards, which are one of the core functions of the office of the commissioner, suggests that the stone has virtually been bled dry. You’re right, Minister, to seek savings, of course, but I wonder whether we have reached a point where substantial further cuts will cross the line and restrict the commissioner’s ability to do her work to an unacceptable extent.Having said that, of course, the commissioner was told in February that this additional funding was on its way. It could have been useful—I agree with Jeremy Miles on this—in this report, to give an idea of the way that that funding is being spent, so that, next year, we can look back at this year’s report to trace how her objectives are developing. I’m certain that the demand on the commissioner’s time will increase, and with each set of standards, it appears that we will face a new set of appeals. And even with a simplified process and a decreasing number of appeals in future, enforcement costs will continue to be a challenge for this year’s budget and beyond. The Government’s long-term target for a million Welsh speakers will demand a long-term approach from the commissioner’s office.Last year, I asked where the second round of standards was. The year before that I asked where the first round of standards was. I don’t know what ‘groundhog’ is in Welsh, but there is no surprise as to what my question is for this year. Even though I’m sure that you will say that you’ve been focusing on bringing amended standards forward, you have had the report on the inquiry into the third round of standards since July. It would be worth having some kind of statement on the timetable soon, I think.However, looking back can be a good thing sometimes, and it would have been interesting to see in this report some kind of reflection on the matters raised last year on progress made in the meantime. The Planning (Wales) Act 2015 and the Welsh in education strategic plans appear in both reports and essentially cover the same period. But we see nothing new on the controversial subject of post-16 education. If truth be told, we see very little detail on education at all, considering the fact that the Diamond review was such a major topic last year. That’s why we’re willing to support the amendments to the debate today. And perhaps we will, of course, see more about that in next year’s report. Once again, I thank the commissioner for meeting party spokespeople on a regular basis to keep us up to date and to share concerns—a two-way process, by the way. Influencing and shaping policies can be done in many ways after all, and speaking to all parties might be something that the Government itself may want to consider before agreeing its draft budget. It is likely, even though this doesn’t have to be the case, that the commissioner is more open with the Assembly than the Government. But you, as Minister, to be fair, are willing to discuss your priorities for the Welsh language, and I appreciate that. We most probably agree that the daily use of the Welsh language is our major aim as a nation, and our project for the high street, Tipyn Bach, contributes to the same agenda. The language, in truth, lives beyond the school gates, but all of our ambitions regarding the future of the Welsh language in education will count for little unless those who were let down by it in the past are included in attempts to ensure that the Welsh language is a living language now. I’m pleased to see the report referring specifically to the soft diplomacy, if I may put it that way, deployed by the commissioner to create a new mindset, which will be vital in the workplace and the workforce. The need for this is still clear, because nobody wants to see another complaint such as the one made against Swansea council. That is why I was also pleased to see a reference to the regulatory framework, section 4 powers to consult, and things like the seminars, quality targets and the various schemes to promote the Welsh language. There are many good things on the website about how to ensure supportive engagement with clubs, societies and civil society in general. But what I’m not quite sure about is how organisations of this kind are going to be drawn to the website in the first place—something that should be considered, perhaps, by any institution that has a duty to promote the Welsh language, including the Government. Thank you very much.

Neil Hamilton AC: I echo everything that Suzy Davies has just said and I welcome this report. I would also, actually, like to commend the Minister for the drive and vision that he brings to his role and the contribution that he’s made to our committee. I don’t suppose I’d be able to say that to many Ministers in this Government, but that’s a genuine compliment that I pay him. The report of the Welsh language commissioner is set against the background that the Welsh language should be treated no less favourably than the English language in Wales, and a person in Wales should be able to live their lives through the medium of the Welsh language if they choose to do so. It shouldn’t require effort to be able to do that. That’s the background to this report. As the commissioner says, progress has been made, and certainly Wales today is a world away from where it was 50 years ago when I was growing up and at school. But she says that provision of Welsh language services is making no further progress, and for some time performance has reached a plateau. Well, Welsh-speaking people should not have to persevere to use their native language, and that is, I think, the united view of this Assembly.What is disappointing about the examples that she gives in her report is that that general aim doesn’t seem to be observed throughout the public sector. Jeremy Miles referred to this in part in his speech, but even providing signs to say that a Welsh service is available is inadequate. There are no Iaith Gwaith signs in 71 per cent of Welsh public sector receptions, and the position is even worse in county councils—76 per cent—and even worse again in the health service, where that figures is 78 per cent. I think that this is a matter of respect, actually—that we should be able to accommodate people’s natural desire to speak Welsh—and it’s a sense of personal embarrassment that I feel that I can’t converse adequately in Welsh so that those who would wish to speak to me in Welsh would be able to do that. That’s something that I’m doing my best to correct, and over the period that I’m allowed to remain in this place, I hope that I will be able to reach perfection, at least in that aspect of life if in no other. So, it’s something that my party welcomes, and we support the Plaid Cymru amendments to this motion this afternoon as well. The use of Welsh should be seen not just as a matter of choice, in the words of the active offer, but as a question of need, because the language is a pedigree of a nation, and once lost, of course, it can never be properly recovered, as we’ve seen from other parts of the United Kingdom, like Cornwall, where the language has been lost. There is much to be done—that’s the lesson that we draw from this report. Even matters such as access to the Welsh language on the internet, which you’d think would be pretty simple to provide, is very inadequate. Only 24 per cent of English forms, apparently, are available in Welsh, and even in the case of correspondence with Government departments and other public sector organisations, apparently 26 per cent of letters written in Welsh receive no reply at all, which I think is most extraordinary, and in the health service 35 per cent of letters written in Welsh receive no reply at all, which I think is actually disgraceful. The other thing that I noted with great interest in the report is the commissioner’s opinion that it’s a myth to claim that one must be able to speak Welsh to work in the public sector. She says that there are a significant number of organisations that provide public services for the people of Wales that need to ensure that they include the Welsh language as a factor when they plan their workforce, and must set out in earnest to increase their linguistic capacity to enable to meet the needs of a bilingual society. That’s an aspiration, again, that I wholly endorse. We are occasionally characterised incorrectly as an English party in UKIP, but we wholeheartedly endorse the aspiration that Wales should become a fully bilingual nation. It would be extraordinary for a nationalist party like us not to take that view, and I’m pleased that this is an opportunity for us all across the Chamber to come together in agreement on what must be done. So, with that, I’ll just say that we endorse the findings of the commissioner’s report, and congratulate her on her work. Despite what Suzy Davies says, there are reservations that we have to admit exist, and we must all do better. Let’s hope that next year we’ll be able to say that we have done better.

Thank you. I call on the Minister for Lifelong Learning and Welsh Language to reply to the debate. Alun Davies.

Alun Davies AC: I have been hoping to do better next year for most of my life, but I am very pleased that we have struck a note of agreement late on this Tuesday afternoon as we discuss this report. I do welcome and am grateful to all Members who have contributed to this debate.As we’ve seen on a number of occasions in the past, this debate has come to an agreement on the principle but has also shown us a clear long-term vision. It’s not often that you see Sian Gwenllian asking the Government to change gear, but Jeremy Miles insisting on revolution. I do think that it is important that we do comply with the ambitions of them both in different ways. I tend to agree with another important contribution, made by Suzy Davies, when she sought a simplified process for the standards. I think it is important that the promotion of the Welsh language and the promotion of the use of the Welsh language is something that should happen naturally, and should happen without some of the bureaucracy that we may have created through the current Measure. That’s one of the things that I will be considering when we come to look at what sort of legislation we will need.In concluding this afternoon’s debate, I will say this: I agree with Sian Gwenllian’s comments on education, Welsh-medium education and post-16 education, as well as how we plan our workforce in order to deliver and provide the kind of services that we want to see in the future. That, of course, is the purpose of having a long-term strategy. It is not sufficient and it isn’t possible to plan the future workforce in two years or in five years. We have to look at this in the long term and look at what we can do for the future. That is the purpose of the debate that we have tried to hold and have tried to lead over the past few months, in order to create a strategy that will assist us in creating 1 million Welsh speakers and people who use the Welsh language over the coming years. And when Jeremy Miles mentions that the report looks at this through the users’ eyes, that is crucially important, because each and every one of us here who speak and use the Welsh language are users of Welsh language services wherever we are and wherever we live, and we know that there are barriers to using our own language in accessing public services that we want to see in various parts of Wales. I accept the points that have been made that the Welsh Government has to ensure that it responds to its responsibilities, too, and there is a role for the UK Government. Very often, we think that because we have this institution here and other national institutions in Wales, that the UK Government has no responsibilities at all in terms of the Welsh language. I happen to think that it’s important that the UK Government and Ministers in Westminster take their responsibilities for the Welsh language seriously. And I think it’s important that that should be recognised.In concluding, I just want to say this: there is consensus here and I do hope that it is a living consensus. I accept what Neil Hamilton has said in terms of what we must do for the future, but I also accept his comments on the kind of commitment that he is willing to make and his party’s willing to make in order to secure the future of the Welsh language as our national language. I say this: it is important that the consensus that we have is a living consensus, a consensus that is willing to challenge and which will drive this vision forward. And I hope that if we achieve that, we will have achieved something very special and something that is historic for Wales and for Wales’s future. Thank you very much.

Thank you very much. The proposal is to agree amendment 1. Does any Member object? No. Therefore amendment is agreed in accordance with Standing Order 12.36.

Amendment 1 agreed in accordance with Standing Order 12.36.

The proposal is to agree amendment 2. Does any Member object? No. Right, therefore, that amendment is agreed also in accordance with Standing Order 12.36.

Amendment 2 agreed in accordance with Standing Order 12.36.

The proposal is to agree amendment 3. Does any Member object? No. Therefore, amendment 3 is agreed.

Amendment 3 agreed in accordance with Standing Order 12.36.

The proposal is to agree the motion as amended.

Motion NDM6117 as amended:To propose that the National Assembly for Wales:1. Acknowledges the Welsh Language Commissioner's Annual Report for 2015-16, which details the work undertaken by the Commissioner to promote and facilitate the use of the Welsh language.2. Notes the importance of workforce planning to provide services through the medium of Welsh as a central aspect to the efforts of government to reach the target of a million Welsh speakers by 2050.3. Calls on the Welsh Government to work with the Welsh Language Commissioner to present a national Welsh language strategy in the workplace in order to increase the use of Welsh in the workplace and promote and raise awareness of the right to receive services through the medium of Welsh.4. Calls on the Welsh Government to work with the Welsh Language Commissioner to implement recommendation 4 in the report of the Working Group on the Welsh Language and Local Government: Language, work and bilingual services, to place a statutory duty on local authorities, including in their role as local education authorities, to undertake workforce planning in terms of linguistic skills, and to provide suitable training to meet those needs.

Does any Member object? No. Therefore, the motion as amended is agreed.

Motion NDM6117 as amended agreed in accordance with Standing Order 12.36.

That concludes today’s business. Thank you very much.

The meeting ended at 18:30.

QNR

Questions to the First Minister

Lynne Neagle: Will the First Minister make a statement on the Welsh Government's additional learning needs policy?

Mark Drakeford: The Welsh Government is committed to transforming the expectations, experiences and outcomes for all learners, including those with additional learning needs. The forthcoming introduction of the additional learning needs and education tribunal (Wales) Bill will be a key milestone in the transformation journey that is already under way.

Mike Hedges: Will the First Minister provide an update on the growth of the ICT industry in Wales?

Mark Drakeford: The BBC has recently reported that we have the fastest-growing digital economy outside of London. The wider ICT sector is worth £8.5 billion in turnover to the Welsh economy. With Welsh Government support, the sector has created 7,500 high-value jobs in Wales over the last five years.

Llyr Gruffydd: Will the First Minister make a statement on services for people on the autistic spectrum?

Mark Drakeford: Since 2008 the autistic spectrum disorder strategic action plan has supported the development of services for people with autism, supported by over £14 million additional funding. We are rolling out a new autism plan, to provide extra support for children, adults and families, including those not eligible for other services.

Nathan Gill: Will the First Minister outline the Welsh Government's fishing policy?

Mark Drakeford: I made clear the need for Wales to develop its own fisheries policy when the UK leaves the EU, to safeguard the future prosperity of Wales’s fishing industry and our coastal communities. The Cabinet Secretary for Environment and Rural Affairs will discuss this with stakeholders at the next round-table meeting.

David Melding: How will the Welsh Government build on the increased public understanding of mental health issues achieved through events such as mental health awareness week?

Mark Drakeford: We know that the attitudes of others can prevent people with mental health problems from getting the support they need. Our ‘Together for Mental Health’ delivery plan sets out the actions we are taking to challenge mental health discrimination and improve knowledge and understanding associated with mental health problems.